Tempo-free Horizon League

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It's the second look at the Horizon League. With some teams having played as many as four games in the conference schedule there are actually a lot of results to work with. I think there are going to be some surprises. If you just want the numbers they're below, but there's analysis after the jump. 

Note: Teams are listed by in-conference efficiency margin along with their projected conference record. The projected records might not add up correctly due to rounding.
  1. Cleveland State +0.28 (17-1)
  2. Butler +0.16 (15-3)
  3. Detroit +0.13 (15-3)
  4. Wright State +0.09 (13-5)
  5. Loyola +0.00 (9-9)
  6. Valparaiso -0.02 (8-10)
  7. Green Bay -0.07 (6-12)
  8. Milwaukee -0.13 (3-15)
  9. UIC -0.13 (3-15)
  10. Youngstown State -0.19 (2-16)

These are all raw efficiency margins of course, which means they're heavily influenced by your schedule. Loyola is the only team that has played both Butler and Cleveland State, and I think that's something really important to remember in these rankings. Also, Loyola is much higher than people might expect given their 1-3 conference record, but that's what 30-point blowouts will do for your efficiency margin. Last season the Ramblers didn't get a blowout victory all conference season, so that's a very good sign for Jim Whitesell's club.

Blowouts are also influencing some of the other rankings. Detroit looks much higher in my rankings than you'll see the Titans in Pomeroy or even the conference standings. But Detroit's destruction of Green Bay is having large repercussions still here.
The other thing I'd note is that luck ratings are also starting to look very interesting. Loyola is the unluckiest team with one win fewer than you'd expect given their results and Milwaukee, thanks to the Panthers' overtime victory over Detroit, is actually 1.25 wins ahead of where they should be right now.
These numbers will continue to stabilize week-to-week and we'll check back on them after league play wraps up. I don't think I need to tell anyone that there's a huge game coming up for both these rankings and the league standings on Friday when Cleveland State takes on Butler.
Horizon League games this week:
  • Monday: Butler at Milwaukee
  • Thursday: Wright State at UIC, Detroit at Loyola
  • Friday: Cleveland State at Butler, Youngstown State at Valparaiso
  • Saturday: Detroit at UIC, Wright State at Loyola, Milwaukee at Green Bay
  • Sunday: Youngstown State at Butler, Cleveland State at Valparaiso

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