Here are what the numbers say for Log5 Predictions for surviving each of the first two rounds.
Some thoughts on the numbers:
- The three lower tier teams: Loyola, Youngstown and UIC each have less than a 4% chance of making it past the first two rounds. The simple fact is that these three teams were far inferior to the other five in terms of efficiency margin in conference this season. Even Loyola, which drew a favorable match-up against Cleveland State, has a less than 15% chance of surviving the first round.
- While Detroit is the underdog against Valparaiso by a slim margin in their first round game, the Titans would be the favorite to advance in a neutral-court second game because of their higher efficiency margin in conference.
- Milwaukee has a better than 50/50 chance of making it to the semifinals. This is because the Panthers are in the easier four-team draw. They could conceivably play UIC and Loyola, but even UIC and Cleveland State wouldn't be the toughest thing.
- Butler and Wright State both have a 100% chance of making the semifinals since they have double-byes. That's why they're not listed here.