Tuesday Truths - Horizon League and Great West (2/16)

The Horizon League and Great West Conference Tuesday Truths:

Horizon League - Team - Efficiency Margin:

  1. Butler - .21
  2. Wright State - .09
  3. Detroit - .05
  4. Cleveland State - .04
  5. Milwaukee - .00
  6. Valparaiso - .00
  7. Green Bay - (-.01)
  8. Loyola - (-.08)
  9. Youngstown State - (-.12)
  10. UIC - (-.16)

Thoughts on these ten plus the Great West efficiency margins after the jump.
Three thoughts to ponder:

  • Detroit has a great efficiency margin, but is 7-8 in conference. The Titans keep finding ways to lose close games. There aren't any particularly large outliers in terms of "luck" in conference besides the Titans. The mercurial Green Bay Phoenix are also a bit "luckier" than the efficiency margin would indicate, but recent results seem to have their record regressing to an expected outcome.
  • Milwaukee is ranked above Valparaiso because the Panthers are actually two thousandths of a point better per possession that even par while the Crusaders are one thousandth of a point per possession below even par. Yes, we take stats to the thousandths place here to make sure you get as accurate a picture as possible.
  • UIC's offense is terrible. The Flames score .905 points per possession in Horizon League play. That's last in the league by .055 points per possession. Your typical UIC game has 67 possessions. That means UIC's offense is 3.6 points per game worse than the second worst offense in the land.

Great West - Team - Efficiency Margin:

  1. N.J.I.T. - .11
  2. South Dakota - .08
  3. Texas-Pan American - .03
  4. Houston Baptist - .02
  5. Utah Valley - (-.02)
  6. North Dakota - (-.04)
  7. Chicago State - (-.13)

And some thoughts on these numbers:

  • Ah what one blowout win can do for you. The Highlanders are in first in this edition of Tuesday Truths thanks to the long-standing power of their blowout of Chicago State - with a little help from the weather. N.J.I.T. didn't have to go on the road to the Dakotas and thus has still played just four Great West games. Expect that number to drop quickly soon.
  • When Texas-Pan American beat Utah Valley last week it was seen as a minor upset in the conference, but if you follow the efficiency margin of these two teams you wouldn't be surprised. The Broncs have played well in Great West play - even if they do have a perplexing loss to Chicago State - and the Wolverines have struggled for some reason.
  • The team at #2 here - South Dakota - is your conference favorite in reality. Expect order to be restored shortly when N.J.I.T. comes to visit.

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