When will UIC win again?

Jimmy Collins Coaching
After Sunday's loss to DePaul the UIC Flames are now mired in a 6-game losing streak after a season opening win over Illinois-Springfield. How long will the Flames have to go before they'll get a victory? What are their best chances?
Luckily, there's a way to predict such things. Using Ken Pomeroy's per possession statistics and the predictions on his site, which you could calculate yourself, but this is so much easier. Teams get a slight bonus for playing at home and sometimes these numbers work out great. See here for example. Of course, that doesn't mean some people aren't still quite skeptical
Jimmy Collins (above) has a lot of work to do, but yes, KenPom's statistics do see UIC winning a game this season. Which one? Check after the jump.

There is only one game remaining on the schedule that the statistics say UIC should win. That game is against Toledo on Dec. 29. The game is at home at the Pavilion and the Flames have a 71% chance at victory according to Pomeroy. The Rockets are also the worst team remaining on UIC's schedule. Toledo is 3-8, including a 32-point loss to Valparaiso on Saturday.

The Top 6 percentage chance games for UIC:
  1. Toledo, home on Dec. 29, 71%
  2. Northern Illinois, home on Dec. 19, 42%
  3. Youngstown State, home on Feb. 6, 34%
  4. Wisconsin-Milwaukee, home on Feb. 27, 31%
  5. Loyola-Chicago, home on Jan. 15, 31%
  6. Cleveland State, home on Feb. 4, 31%
While the Flames don't have the percentages on their side in any other game this season besides Toledo, using LOG5 predictions Pomeroy predicts a final overall record of 5-23, including 3-15 in the Horizon League.
We'll see if UIC can best these predictions, but right now the odds, quite literally, are against the Flames.
Miss something this weekend? Check out photos of the Flames in action against DePaul and the recap for Sunday's game.

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Tags: statistics, UIC


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  • I think our first win will occur this Saturday against Northern Illinois. RealTime RPI gives UIC a 54.9% chance of winning that game, with a score of 67-65.

    Using Sagarin's Ratings, his formula (adding 4 points to the home team), would have UIC winning by 2.38 points.

  • Saturday is going to be an interesting game. The ratings systems in general seem split on how UIC will do. Even Pomeroy predicts a 2-pt game - in this case for Northern Illinois - and those can certainly go either way. It should be an excellent game. Unfortunately while I'll be at UIC's game against Oregon State tomorrow night, I'll be at Northwestern vs. Stanford on Friday and won't get to see the Flames go for the victory.

  • In reply to johntemplon:

    Oops... obviously meant to say Saturday for the Flames vs. Northern Illinois and NU vs. Stanford.

  • In reply to johntemplon:

    I like to follow Pomeroy, but he's not always right. He had Cleveland State whopping Robert Morris tonight, yet RMU won at CSU.

    My guess is UIC will have 3-4 more wins by the end of the season.

    And it's Milwaukee, not Wisconsin-Milwaukee :)

  • In reply to JimmyLemke:

    The sample size is small enough still in Pomeroy that he's going to be wrong a little more often than not probably, at least until the first of the year or so. Still, I think it's fun to look at the projections. Interestingly enough, Pomeroy now predicts that UIC will finished with 4 more wins on the year, including 3 in the Horizon League. So watch out.

    And the Milwaukee thing is just a tick. I didn't even realize I did it.

    Also, the loss to Robert Morris was a bad one for a struggling Cleveland State team. The Vikings look like they're really struggling after losing a lot of talent off of last season's NCAA Tournament team.

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