Draft Profile: Terry Rozier, 6'2, PG, 190 lbs., Sophomore, Louisville

Draft Profile: Terry Rozier, 6'2, PG, 190 lbs., Sophomore, Louisville

Overview   

Rozier is a very talented and explosive player at the point guard position who can put up points in a hurry. Rozier has great blow by ability, is ultra-aggressive (some of it is the Louisville system), and is a very good defender. The issue is: Is Rozier efficient enough to play at this level and can he be a point guard?

Athletic Ability

Athletically, Rozier is the most imposing player in this draft and in general one of the top players. Rozier is extremely fast, has quick hands, can jump really well, and combines it with natural aggressiveness. I’m not saying he is in the tier of Russell Westbrook or Derrick Rose in his prime, but just a tier below it.

Size

At 6’2, Rozier is average at the point guard position in terms of height. However, he is built like a tank at 190 lbs. and has a very good wing-span at over 6’8.  Combine good size with elite athleticism, and you have an interesting player.

Basketball IQ  

To be honest, I feel Rozier leaves a lot to desire in terms of basketball IQ. I am not saying he is a basketball dummy, but he makes many questionable decisions. Sometimes you need an irrational shot-maker and Rozier could be that in the right environment.

Skill

Skill-wise, Rozier has some nice physical gifts that help his skill level. He has an elite first step with very good handles. In fact, his elite first step, if honed and developed, can be quite a go-to move at the next level. While not a great shooter, Rozier can get hot from mid-range and from three-point range. He also showed the ability to make acrobatic finishes, but was an inconsistent finisher in the lane.

Defensively, Rozier is a stud at the point guard position. He can pressure opposing guards the whole game, seems to have relentless energy, gets many steals, and has the body to shield off players from their comfort spot. He is also a very good rebounder getting over 5 rebounds a game.

The big thing for me with Rozier is consistency. He struggles to finish shots, is not someone that can regularly find teammates even in a drive-and-kick system, and is very inconsistent from his mid-range and outside shot. Defensively, while a very good player, he gambles too much at times. My concern is a player that has the talent to be a very good, scoring point guard is very inconsistent in finding ways to scorer while not being a good passer at the premium position to be passing. He also does not really play well off the ball.

Overall

Thinking of comparisons for Rozier, he kind of reminds me a little of Eric Bledsoe but way more raw. Rozier is said to pattern his game after his basketball idol Dwyane Wade, but he is nowhere near the level of player as Wade. If Rozier finds the right team to develop him, and can find the system that will let him play in an open-court style, I can envision his prime being that of an Eric Bledsoe. I just question his decision making and ability to be consistent to do that consistently.

What makes him hard to evaluate in my opinion is the way Rick Pitino develops players offensively. While Pitino is a big-time winner, to me his success comes off of playing overpowering defense and traps at a lesser level with elite level athletes. I just don't see much offensive power and that is why we must take everything into consideration.

How does he fit with the Bulls?

To me, Rozier has the talent and playmaking to be a good possible pick at pick 22. There are big concerns as to if he is consistent enough to be a NBA player. With Aaron Brooks last year, fans were wanting him to initiate the offense more and get the team in flow. Supposedly, the Bulls like Rozier or putting off that vibe, but will the Bulls place Rozier as a facilitator or will he be another Aaron Brooks in getting points off the bench (albeit better at the rim, but not nearly as good of a shooter)?

To me, the Bulls need three things in either size, smart playmaking, or athletic shooting. I don’t know if I classify Rozier as any of that. While he provides the athleticism we crave and it seems like Hoiberg offensively can find mismatches, I just think it will take a while to develop him. I think Rozier is the type of talent that can develop well on a team that will give him time, and then he join another organization, and blossom after 4 inconsistent years of developing his game. If I am going to take a scoring point guard at our pick or trade down, I am taking someone like Joseph Young from Oregon. While Young is not nearly as dominant athletically like Rozier, he can shoot, is very fast, and has a decent understanding of the game. I don’t think Rozier is a Marquis Teague-like bad player, as Rozier is confident and much more imposing athletically and in build. I just don’t see a great fit here right now.

In the last couple of years, the Finals Champions have had playmakers that can shoot. The Bulls basically have right now Doug McDermott, Nikola Mirotic, and Tony Snell as our proven shooters (Butler is improving and Dunleavy is a free agent). Taking Rozier to pair with this shooting right now to me stifles the style of offense Coach Hoiberg might run.

Comments

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  • Well said - I think he's a good, tenacious player, but we have better options if we want to go the PG route.

  • Excellent, impressive review. I like Rozier. Elite level athleticism, handle, and shot 80% from the free throw line in the ACC while shooting 40% from three on 3.0 attempts per game in the ACC albeit last year. Also getting 5.1 rebounds in a tough conference like the ACC this season which is studly for a guy his size or even a couple of inches taller. Not to mention nearly two steals a game. And his 6'8 wingspan can not be overlooked it just amplify's his athletic potential and abilities on both ends. That really makes him more like a 6'3 guard if you ask me.

    I just feel like Rozier has the personality we're looking for as in he stands out and is impressive at least to me. I agree with Kevin that Rozier may take a year or two blossom as a shooter and scorer, but then again with his athletic tools he might be able to surprise especially after he gets a season under his belt. And Hoiberg likely would give him a little burn as I'm sure the front office wants to see what they have if he's drafted by the Bulls.

    My only other comment would be that as Kevin mentions Joseph Young as an option to think about as an undersized scoring guard let me just say this. IMO Young's athleticism is underrated. He is a prolific scorer in a major conference for years who can flat out shoot volume threes with the best of them. In any league. Please Gar/Pax.. DRAFT THIS KID AS IN ACQUIRE A SECOND ROUND PICK IF HE REMAINS THERE. This kid is going to be the steal of the draft if he remains in the second round. I watched him a lot he's a good kid, and he's gonna be a very good NBA player. If only the Bulls could get this guy, but highly unlikely.

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    In reply to RoadWarrior:

    Great write up by both of you guys.

    As long as hoibergs offense is up tempo w a lot of passing built into it, rozier will be fine. If not, we can't have another hold the ball/ ball hog on the team like Rose.

    Personally I love Rick Pitino and Tom Izzo coached kids, they seem have a special kind of tenacity and play w a chip on their shoulder. We need more of these types of players.

  • And now in regards to Joseph Young this:
    oregonlive.com/nba/index.ssf/2015/06/nba_news_rumors_does_joseph_yo_1.html

    If the buzz grows on the promise rumors and cancelled workouts, and people take a second look, I just wonder how high this kid will end up going..? Bulls for the love of god please draft Joseph Young. Or if not then Terry Rozier.

  • In reply to RoadWarrior:

    I would love to get Joe Young (hope the Bulls surprise me there). I love his speed to get into the lane along with his shooting.

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    I think I like RoadWarrior's breakdown of Terry Rozier better than I did K.States.
    Give me a guy who's really good at something and we'll worry about the rest later. The kid can score from all over the court and that's what the Bulls need is players who can score.

    I don't want to read about a PG's exceptional basketball IQ in college, nor do I care about a PG who can pass the ball. Can he score? Is he a threat to put the ball in the basket? If so he becomes much more valuable to a team than a PG who is looking for his teammates to get open ala Tyus Jones.

    Give me Joe Young or Terry Rozier, and enjoy the show. Watch them build chemistry with their teammates, and eventually become more than just scoring threats, but playmakers too. But at least the Bulls will have confidence they have a PG who comes into the league with one exceptional skill. From there who knows how good he could be?

  • In reply to Michael Cunningham:

    I'm cool if you like someone else's post better. He can scorer and he is a dynamite athlete (the tools are there so to speak). However, he was a very inconsistent scorer in college. That is a concern to me. If his best skill is scoring and he is very inconsistent, I do have concerns. He is a very streaky shooter, is very inconsistent at finishing at the rim, and can put up awkward mid-range jumpers. I won't disagree with you though in terms of Bulls needing scorers and he has the chance to be a dynamite player. However, he is a big-time boom/bust type player. I do like Joe Young more (good athlete that can score consistently - not as freak of an athlete, but a good one with great speed).

  • This is one of the reviews I was waiting to see. I saw Rozier play a lot this year. He was basically the only outside offensive threat on the Louisville team. So that is why you see the inconsistency. I'm not sure why you don't see him as playing well off the ball as he had to do that a lot with Louisville point guard and ball hog, Chris Jones, demanding the ball most of the time until Jones was dismissed from the team.

    And as you mentioned he is a defensive stud and an exceptional athlete. He has a 38 inch vertical. He is a good kid as well. He also has a level of maturity to him in opting to go to a prep school for an extra year before starting at Louisville and then spending two years there. I also think he will be a very decent shooter. He shot 37% from the free throw line as a freshman. That dropped to 30% as a sophomore.

    But as I said, he was their only real offensive threat from the outside as Harrell scored mostly on dunks. Imagine being the only real outside offensive threat and still posting 17 points a game as a sophomore in the ACC. He led the ACC in steals per game as well.

    He was one of the best performers at the 5 on 5 at the NBA combine in Chicago and showed his skills as a facilitator. He also had the highest percentage of 88% of those who took part in the spot up shooting drill from the NBA 3 point line at the combine.

    Also, he was one of the top three point guards in high school when he came to Louisville. He has point guard skills but was just not allowed to use them while playing off Jones. Being the only real offensive threat required him to be the one to take a lot of bail out shots when the Louisville offense became stagnant and that happened a lot. In comparing him to Joseph Young at the combine, CBS sports noted: "He got into the lane at will in Friday's game against Joe Young, and found open spot-up shooters in a way that he often did not at Louisville." http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25186884/three-up-three-down-who-helped-and-hurt-themselves-at-the-combine

    I actually think the real problem now is that teams think the Bulls are interested in him after calling him back for workouts. And he is getting a lot of interest now from other teams where he like Jerian Grant, the other point guard I like in this draft, will both likely be selected before the Bulls pick.

    Obviously, I like him. Bledsoe is a decent comparison regarding some of the athleticism. But I also see him as like a Jrue Holiday with that first step when Holiday was healthy and played well for the Sixers. Again, I don't think Rozier will be available though.

  • Sorry I meant he shot 37% from the three point line, not the free throw line.

  • Sounds like there is a lot to like about this guy, except for his size. It just seems to me that the Bulls need a big PG/combo guard off the bench to replace the veteran midgets that we've trying each season and generally failing with in the playoffs.

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