Over at the Hangtime blog, they polled a bunch of NBA writers and asked what their worry over Derrick Rose was. Surprisingly, (or perhaps not?), virtually none of them were concerned for Rose's season at all.
Read the full article here
One theme kept coming up, the World Cup statistics mean nothing (I agree), and Rose seemed to show enough physical positives and came through without injury to suggest that his body is healthy (not so sure).
The question may have been leading:
"Nobody seems all that worried about Derrick Rose, even after an abysmal (statistically speaking) FIBA World Cup tournament. Are you? Why or why not?"
The World Cup shouldn't introduce a bunch of new worries. Shooting 1/19 is ugly, but when Derrick Rose starts taking 15 jump shots a game, I'm sure his form will come back quite a bit quicker.
The easy finishes he missed won't likely be a long term problem either. In short, there's nothing new to worry about with Derrick Rose after the World Cup.
I agree that there's nothing new to worry about after the World Cup. I agree the World Cup, despite the poor stats, was a positive for Derrick. However, I think the difference between my view and the view of many of the optimists is that they would likely view a 90% recovery as a success.
Personally, I don't think Derrick Rose will fall apart at the seams this year. I don't predict he blows out his knee for a third time. I don't predict he has a World Cup like performance in the NBA either.
What I do predict is that Rose never gets back to 100% of where he was physically. He never gets 100% of the explosiveness. The old phrase of "Player X at 90% is still great" won't apply to Derrick nearly so straightforwardly. If he loses just a little bit of speed it could have a huge impact on his game.
I predict what see from Rose is something like this: 18 points, six assists a game with shooting around 41% from the field and 33% from the three point line. We see more threes, less drives, and while we'll get a glimpse of the old Rose with regularity, we'll get a much more passive Rose more frequently.
The Derrick Rose that teams game planned for and threw triple or quadruple teams against will be gone. The guy who could open the floor for everyone else won't be back.
He'll be close enough to put up some nice raw stats. Close enough that fans will simply say he needs more time, but not close enough for the Bulls to win anything. With Derrick Rose playing at his absolute peak, the Bulls have a very real chance to win the NBA title this season.
With Rose playing at the level I described they don't. My concern for Rose doesn't revolve around his leg falling off at the knee. It revolves around the fact that getting back to 100% is really, really hard and 90% likely isn't good enough to do anything more than lose in five games in the ECF.
That may not matter to the national writers or even the local writers. Derrick Rose healthy enough to get the Bulls to the ECF is a huge win relative to the past couple of years even if it's obvious that he's significantly diminished as a player. It's good enough to keep interest going, good enough to write about, good enough to provide hope, and good enough to meet any reasonable expectations of this season.
It's just not good enough to win.
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