NBA Writers not so worried about Derrick Rose

NBA Writers not so worried about Derrick Rose

Over at the Hangtime blog, they polled a bunch of NBA writers and asked what their worry over Derrick Rose was. Surprisingly, (or perhaps not?), virtually none of them were concerned for Rose's season at all.

Read the full article here

One theme kept coming up, the World Cup statistics mean nothing (I agree), and Rose seemed to show enough physical positives and came through without injury to suggest that his body is healthy (not so sure).

The question may have been leading:

"Nobody seems all that worried about Derrick Rose, even after an abysmal (statistically speaking) FIBA World Cup tournament. Are you? Why or why not?"

The World Cup shouldn't introduce a bunch of new worries. Shooting 1/19 is ugly, but when Derrick Rose starts taking 15 jump shots a game, I'm sure his form will come back quite a bit quicker.

The easy finishes he missed won't likely be a long term problem either. In short, there's nothing new to worry about with Derrick Rose after the World Cup.

I agree that there's nothing new to worry about after the World Cup. I agree the World Cup, despite the poor stats, was a positive for Derrick. However, I think the difference between my view and the view of many of the optimists is that they would likely view a 90% recovery as a success.

Personally, I don't think Derrick Rose will fall apart at the seams this year. I don't predict he blows out his knee for a third time. I don't predict he has a World Cup like performance in the NBA either.

What I do predict is that Rose never gets back to 100% of where he was physically. He never gets 100% of the explosiveness. The old phrase of "Player X at 90% is still great" won't apply to Derrick nearly so straightforwardly. If he loses just a little bit of speed it could have a huge impact on his game.

I predict what see from Rose is something like this: 18 points, six assists a game with shooting around 41% from the field and 33% from the three point line. We see more threes, less drives, and while we'll get a glimpse of the old Rose with regularity, we'll get a much more passive Rose more frequently.

The Derrick Rose that teams game planned for and threw triple or quadruple teams against will be gone. The guy who could open the floor for everyone else won't be back.

He'll be close enough to put up some nice raw stats. Close enough that fans will simply say he needs more time, but not close enough for the Bulls to win anything. With Derrick Rose playing at his absolute peak, the Bulls have a very real chance to win the NBA title this season.

With Rose playing at the level I described they don't. My concern for Rose doesn't revolve around his leg falling off at the knee. It revolves around the fact that getting back to 100% is really, really hard and 90% likely isn't good enough to do anything more than lose in five games in the ECF.

That may not matter to the national writers or even the local writers. Derrick Rose healthy enough to get the Bulls to the ECF is a huge win relative to the past couple of years even if it's obvious that he's significantly diminished as a player. It's good enough to keep interest going, good enough to write about, good enough to provide hope, and good enough to meet any reasonable expectations of this season.

It's just not good enough to win.

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  • fb_avatar

    I don't think Derrick will average 18 pts during the regular season nor does he have to. He'll avg 14 or 15 ppg. He'll sit out of possibly 20-22 games and his playing time will be around 7 mins per qtr or 28 mins per game.

  • In reply to Michael Cunningham:

    So our superstar player that the team depends upon is only going to play 28 minutes per game? That would really, really suck.

    Why would you say he doesn't have to? He does if this team is going to win a title, otherwise I agree, he doesn't have to for the team to have another nice regular season.

  • In reply to Michael Cunningham:

    He's still the only perimeter player that can put pressure on opposing defenses. 14-15 ppg is harsh, I mean Deng averaged 19 and Jimmy averaged 13ppg. Even Augustin got 15 and 5 in 30mins.

  • In reply to Michael Cunningham:

    If Doug's prediction is accurate, Rose isn't even an all star, he isn't even a difference maker, with that level of shooting is he even a replacement level player, i.e Augustin. With your level of production, I don't know what to call him, but it sounds like a bust.

    I can live with Derrick scoring less, but then his assist number should go up not down from the 8 or so he averaged before. For him to make a significant positive impact he has to get the assist average into the double digits, and he's has to shoot a hell of lot closer to 50% than 40%. Personally, I'd like to see him forget about the 3 point game and focus on penetration and the mid range game. But my sense is that he will be a high volume 3 point shooter.

  • If we are going to model the Bulls with Spurs, Rose needs to play at the least to the level of Tony Parker. We won't need Rose to be a 22/8 but more of a 14/12. I still put the odds of Bulls 2014/15 better than Bulls 2010/11 with Rose at 90%.

  • fb_avatar

    Disagree ---
    1. Rose will be a different player. His last FIBA game was interesting,
    no points but 6 assists. He will be a passer more than a shooter.
    2. The Bulls are loaded with scorers now. The team before Rose's injuries was centered around Rose. Now it is not.
    3. The Bulls won 48 games without him. The additions of Gasol, Mirotic, and McDermott would improve that to 58 games at least.
    Rose puts my expectations for this season at over 60 games.
    4. Rose does not have to be the MVP and carry the team on his back like he did before. And, this is good.
    5. The Bulls are modeled more like the Spurs now, where many excellent players make a dominating team -- not one or two stars.
    Personally, I prefer this style.
    I think the Bulls will take the Eastern title quite easily.
    I think the Bulls will battle the Spurs in the Finals -- and win.

  • In reply to Craig Dillon:

    The Bulls haven't added scorers, the Bulls have added shooters. The Spurs have ball handlers, while the Bulls have one. The Bulls won't be able to attack from the perimeter like Spurs.

  • fb_avatar
    In reply to Jamie W:

    The Bulls, by my count, have three ball handlers (Rose, Hinrich, Brooks). In terms of good shooters, they have Hinrich, Brooks, McDermott, Mirotic, Dunleavy. If Rose, Butler and Snell improve from outside, you can add them as well.

  • I will bet everyone a beer that Derrick gets back to his MPV level or the Chris Paul equivalent. However, you all have to come to Saigon to collect if I lose.

  • In reply to takdan:

    I sincerely hope I will not have to make this voyage to hold you accountable.

  • In reply to takdan:

    I may take you up on that! For work I regularly visit China, which is adjacent to Vietnam. But I've never visited your country.

  • I see D. Rose at 16pts a game with 40% field goal and 31% on three pointers. His scoring ability will be diminished this year and he seems to have some trouble elevating thus having trouble on dunks and finishing at the rim. What I like to see is the passing ability and running a team get better. His speed is still elite and he can use that to set up a a more talented scoring team. The development of Snell and McDermott will be crucial going forward, Rose needs wings that can shoot and score.

  • It's not really about the points or assists per game so much as it's about drawing double- and triple-teams and getting points and assists anyways. If Rose is drawing double-teams and triple-teams, I don't mind if his points or minutes go down a bit.

  • Hey they aint gotta pay him!!!!!!!!!!!

  • I don't see Rose at 90%. More like 95% or better. In a brief window last year he seemed rusty but close to his previous athleticism. His meniscus injury is not on the same knee as the ACL and is the same or similar injury to Westbrook's and less severe than Blake Griffin's (who had part of the meniscus removed). I don't see any loss of athleticism in either. Also remember that Wade has played his whole career without a meniscus in one knee (a major reason for latter career knee problems).
    Rose at 90% is unwarranted pessimism. Look for Rose to be at an All Star level, just not until mid to late in the season.

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