Tony Snell fringe NBA player and steal of the draft

Looking at the past draft shows the great disparity of quality that can be found from one draft to the next. Tony Snell looks like a fringe NBA player to me, yet if we were to redraft this draft he might actually go considerably higher in the draft than he did.

The vast majority of rookies aren't even finding their way onto the court. The majority of the ones that are, are making Tony Snell's 39.9% FG% look a bit better than it does in a vacuum. Victor Olidapo and Michael Carter-Williams seem to be just about it when it comes to this draft so far.

Perhaps when he comes back from his ACL injury Nerlens Noel will prove himself worthy of the number one pick he was projected to be prior to the ACL injury. However, guys who looked like sure fire scorers have fallen flat. Anthony Bennett, Otto Porter, and Ben McLemore all look like busts.

It's more evidence that it's not the pick, but the draft you have the pick in. The 2014 draft may be a bit over hyped, but after the dud in 2013 it's easy to see why.

As for Snell, he's eighth in minutes played, 11th in points per game. Scary given that he's not particularly impressive in either category. Strangely though, watching Snell, he looks like he can become a valuable rotation player for a team. He needs to improve the consistency of his shot some, perhaps gain a bit more aggressiveness off the bounce, and get just needs some experience defensively.

In a year? It's easy to imagine that Tony Snell's a guy who can play 25-28 minutes a night for a team and provide three point shooting, defense, and enough off the dribble game to keep teams honest while playing relatively mistake free basketball and never trying to do too much.

That's not the mark of a great player. It's probably the mark of a guy worth the three million to the MLE when his rookie contract ends. Compared to this draft class though? That might just make him a top 10 player in this draft when all is said and done which says more about his draft class than it does him.

The good news for Chicago? It looks that though there was certainly some criticism of this pick, the Bulls may have managed to identify a quality player in a sea of non quality players. Not bad Chicago, not bad at all.

Bulls Wizards battle it out for 5th seed

The Wizards snapped the Bulls league wide high five game win streak last time they played [seriously, would you have imagined post-Rose injury there was a point the Bulls would have a league high win streak?], and both teams won their next game. They currently sit in a tie for 5th in the East at 18-19.

Chicago's looking to climb back up to the .500 mark which is both a compliment to how bad ass Tom Thibodeau is as coach and a show of how pathetic the Eastern Conference is in general.

I've been staunchly tank in the past, but I just can't see the Bulls missing the playoffs in the East. It's just not bad enough, the players care too much, and well Joakim Noah humiliated me by calling me not a real fan. [I get it Jo, but us fans, we play arm-chair GM, not arm-chair center, I wouldn't want you to think any other way].

Now? Well, I figure if the Bulls are going to be in this thing, they might as well win a playoff series. I love this team. I love it's fight. I love that despite an injury to their superstar and a trade of their second or third best player for salary relief that the team is still fighting hard. There's no quit.

It'd be an incredible statement if the Bulls made it to the second round with this group. I won't be upset of they somehow find themselves outside the playoffs when they happen. I'll rejoice in having a better pick, but given the Bulls can't get into the tremendous pick range, I'm good with them winning around and giving fans something to cheer about.

They can take a step towards that by beating Washington tonight, and given the Hawks injury problems, it's quite possible that this could be a preview of a playoff matchup in the four/five seeds. The East is awfully bunched up, so it could go in virtually any direction though as neither of these teams are even locks to make the playoffs.

Still, I'm looking forward to a fun game with perhaps a little revenge on the minds of the Bulls after Washington beat them two games ago. Joakim, you've changed the mind of at least one tanker with your play, now let's see how far you can carry this group.

Filed under: Game Threads

Tags: chicago bulls, nba, tony snell

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  • Gotta give FO credit. I remember being disappointed cause.they didn't draft a big... Any of those remaining bigs looking good?

    Also, I agree it is too late to tank effectively. I now find myself rooting for wins so Bulls take a playoff slot that would.otherwise go to Charlotte.

  • In reply to Swish14U:

    Yea, the consensus among the fans was Georgiu Dieng, who I think ended up in Minny, but we haven't seen him yet, so I have no idea what happened to him.

  • At this point, best case scenario is the bulls get the sixth seed. The will have a good chance to beat whoever ends up 3rd and get into the second round. They would also end up with 19th pick that way I think.

  • In reply to bullshooter:

    The Bulls probably don't quite have the horses left, but they could easily compete for the 3-4-5 seeds with Atlanta minus Horford, Toronto minus(plus)Gay and the Wiz with everyone healthy so far. If they lose again to the Wiz tonight then it might be an indication that they are more 5-6 material, since they already lost to the Raps a couple of times.

  • Doug, as much as I like Noah as a player, your original premonition was the correct one. The fact that you rooted for the Bulls to tank, doesn’t make you a bad fan. In fact, it makes you a smart one.

  • In reply to RichG:

    Absolutely -- taking the longer view of what is most likely to produce a contending team for years.

    However, some analysts now feel that there are no clear impact players in this draft. If that is true, then tanking makes less sense. Still, the history shows that most impact players are drafted in the first 10 picks.

  • I wanted them to tank but since they won't, might as well cheer them on and cheer for the Charlotte pick.

  • In reply to Roman F:

    I may be in the minority, but I don't want the Charlotte pick if they make the playoffs. I realize that there now appears to be a shot that they can finish 9th in the east and still fall outside the bottom 10 league wide. I guess that I'd take the 11th pick this year, but too many things have to fall the right way to make it a "rootable" event. MKG just came back, so it will be interesting to see if he makes a difference for them and reverses their fortunes to the good side, which screws us.

  • Tonny Snell pick proves that you are not guarantee to get a Super Star with a low pick. I think the FO in general does a great job at scouting better than expected players at their draft pick. Even at 19, the Bull will likely get a better than expected pick. Regardless, I am still dreaming of Lance Stephenson at free agency. This kid is going to be a super star in my opinion and if we find a way to lure him, just like the Rockets lured Asik from us, that would be great.

  • In reply to BullsDynasty:

    Stephenson would be a great fit for the Bulls, he's basically a tall combo guard with good passing skills, rebounds like a forward and plays good defense and while not a great shooter, he can score 13-15 pts a game. He would also be good insurance if Rose falls again to a knee/leg injury since he can play pg position. I think he should be the number one target but its going to take at least 10 million a year to lure him out of Indy. The Bulls are lacking shot creators and he definitely can create and dribble drive, I just don't see Jimmy Butler as a shooting guard, he doesn't really have the handles or shot creation ability for it.

  • In reply to Defense-Rebound13:

    I mean the realistic number one free agent target since Melo is probably headed to LA or sticks in NY. As for Snell, he's a solid player but his lack of aggression/mentality, I don't know if he'll ever get to solid role player type of 15pts per game with 37% three point shooting. His rebounding and defense are getting better though. His handles are solid and he plays within the flow of the offense so his IQ is very good. It's a thing for him to get stronger, continue to work on his shooting and become more aggressive in games. The Bulls need all the shooting and driving they can get.

  • In reply to Defense-Rebound13:

    Interesting Stephenson went for 28, his career high last night, Eric Gordon went for 35 the night before.

  • In reply to BullsDynasty:

    Great point. I have said this the last couple weeks - the Bulls can find talent just as well at 19 as they can at 8. It's extremely hard to find superstars outside the top 10, but there are just as many busts inside the top 10 and you have to pay them more. I think that in this draft, picks 1-7, ending with Aaron Gordon, could be stars. The Bulls have no shot at attaining a top 7 pick. Worst case, they just miss the playoffs and are in the lottery, but still a slim chance to crack even the top 10.

    So, you just hope the Bulls can scout the best available player. I like Jabari. Jabari Bird on Cal. Nobody is talking about him. He will likely rise when he gets healthy again soon. I like him over all the wings that ESPN has inside the top 20 - like Hood, Harris and Young. He is a great athlete and he can shoot and play D.

    This philosophy and enabled me to be more accepting of Bulls wins. Heck, Snell probably could have been drafted 5 picks lower.

  • In reply to BullsDynasty:

    dreaming or nightmare, the kid is a raging jackasshole, who will likely self destruct as soon as he gets his big payday. Plus Larry Bird has been his godfather, whats he going to do when he leaves Bird's side.

  • Lance is playing really well but my gut tells me it's due to a contract year. He may turn into JR Smith, but less of a knucklehead.

    I think the Pacers won't let him leave especially since Larry Legend seems to really endorse him.

  • In reply to JPesos1230:

    I like Lance, but he plays so dumb. So many turnovers and stupid antics. I think he'll cost too much. May also depend on what Butler will cost to extend moving forward. And, Mirotic.

    Butler flashes a higher ceiling now and then, but it's good that he has not truly broken out yet because then the Bulls would be unable to keep him. As of now, I think he signs an extension for $7-8 million. Gibson type money maybe, although he is playing more minutes so he could demand more.

  • In reply to Granby:

    He might get more(than he is worth) if some team wants to offer him enough to "force' the Pacers into not being able to match. $7-8 sounds about right and might be the limit for the Pacers matching. That is why he might get $10 million, which could be a big risk of being an overpayment off of a contract year.

  • In reply to BigWay:

    Is Lance Stephenson a restricted or unrestricted free agent? I'm finding conflicting reports on the internet.

  • In reply to Edward:

    I keep reading that he is restricted, but he was a second round pick, so maybe the Asik/Lin gimmick applies. But he might have signed a 3 year instead of a 2 year deal which I think gives Indy his restricted rights. I'm just guessing from memory on this.

  • Although I have been pleasantly surprised by the play of Snell the last couple of games, I also see him as a fringe player. Perhaps a seventh or eighth man. Although most posters here will not agree with me on this, I think the Bulls would have been better served to have selected Plumlee with their pick. The draft was loaded with big men but the Bulls passed over both Plumlee and Dieng. This draft is thin on big men.

    Miles Plumlee has developed into a decent starting center on a good team. Mason Plumlee is way more athletic and skilled and should develop into a much better pro than his brother. In my opinion he would have been a better asset than Snell. To be clear, I don't "hate" Snell. I just think Plumlee would have been the wiser choice and a more valuable asset down the road.

  • In reply to hgarbell:

    I liked the other Plumlee last year instead of Teague, but I guess Indy beat us to the punch and then didn't use him and dumped him. I think that the Nets got this years Plumlee right after we picked, I certainly wouldn't have complained about that pick, but he doesn't seem to be getting any playing time in Jersey this year, kind of like his brother the year before.

  • With all the usual caveats about advanced stats, Snell is the 8th best rookie to date using Win Shares. http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2013.html

    He's actually ranked MUCH higher than Oladipo, even accounting for minutes played by using WS/48. It should be noted that Tim Hardaway Jr., taken 4 picks after Snell, is ranked higher.

  • Once again the headline says it all: "Tony Snell fringe NBA player.."

    Congrats Tony. Your shooting 32% from three which is what you're supposed to be good at. Seriously if he wasn't playing for the Bulls who would give a rat's ass about a guy shooting 32% from three and 39% overall rookie or otherwise? So we're supposed to rejoice because as things stand now at this incredibly early date he's the cream of the crap??

    Gar/Pax you magnificent bastards! Snell's college numbers over three seasons in rebounding, steals etc. are sub par to say the least. As predictors of future NBA success those two numbers are extremely telling. His lackluster production i.e effort does not project well. Of course with Jimmy Butler shooting .384 and .317 from three you've just found an upgrade at the 20th pick. You rock!

    As for the 2013 Draft it is way too early to make conclusions about guys like Otto Porter or Ben McLemore. There's no way the word "bust" should even be uttered in the same breath as McLemore at this point. His production as a freshman and incredible physical gifts bode well for his future. If I had to bet I'd still think at min he'll be a solid starter. The point being his resume and incredible physical gits along with being seen as a nice kid aka not a loser or "problem" make the pick however it turns out a solid choice. A hell of a lot better choice then a no effort, no production murky resume at best that screams not an NBA player. Thanks again for drafting Tony Snell to cover your ass over the Deng dump for essentially nothing. Again kudos guys, you're "Top 5" forr suurrre dude.

  • In reply to RoadWarrior:

    The eyeball test is as important as statistics if you're evaluating rookies. Statistically Marquis Teague was hardly stellar 2nd half of last season but he projected to be useable at least. The eyeball test said different, everybody that pays any attention to the Bulls at all knew it. In their rookie seasons Anthony Morrow actually scored more points than Scottie Pippen in fewer minutes. I think Doug's got it right 25 min/game, some ball handling, some playmaking, some heady defense (once he learns to stay in front of his man) and I think he's capable of 38%-40% from 3.

    But in order to know you'd have to watch the games. Which I suspect you don't. Cause why bother right?

  • In reply to Redwhitenblack:

    Teague was roughly as awful in the second half of last year as he was the first half statistically. He was also awful in college. Statistics very much predicted Teague would never be an NBA quality player.

  • In reply to Shakes:

    Ok, that's what I get for running my mouth before I look back at the numbers. Ay caramba!

  • Off-topic comment about drafting and developing players (i.e. Snell, Butler, Gibson).

    The shitty thing about finding hidden gems in the draft...once they prove themselves, they need to get paid, and the team that drafted them can no longer afford them. They put the work in to develop these guys, then can't reap the reward.

    The next CBA should have 2 tiers for luxury tax consideration. The first tier would have a less severe tax penalty on the salaries of drafted players. The second tier would be for free agents, who would have much higher tax implications.

    For instance, a team could have up to $75 million of salary cap for drafted players before the tax kicks in. Free agent salaries would reduce that cap dollar for dollar. So if you are Miami, and you bring in Lebron and Bosh at $20 million per, now your cap is brought down to $35 million, and you just basically killed the super-team strategy. On the other hand, a team could still bring in one elite free agent, and still have a cap of around $55 million, close to what it is now.

    A system like this would reward teams for drafting well and developing talent, but still offer some flexibility to all teams. It may not be perfect, but the current system sucks.

  • I'm pretty much with you Doug, somewhere in the 50/50 neighborhood that he becomes a reliable/valuable rotation player. On his good days I go up to 60/40, on his bad days down to 40/60.

    Will he become as good as Taj and Jimmy, or at least the Jimmy we thought that we were getting before he became permanently injured this season. That seems to be his upside to me, maybe with a better offensive game than those guys.

    Are three guys at the Taj/Jimmy level as starters good enough with a healthy Rose and Noah? Assuming that they are all equivalent, do they all eventually get paid the same, i.e. Taj money $8 million per. Can we afford to have those 3 guys making $8 million per. Is Lance Stephenson better than Jimmy/Taj/, how much better is Stephenson than Snells ceiling? Interesting questions all

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    I one of the few Bulls fans that doesn't get tanking to get a draft pick. Thibs doesn't give rookies playing time so at best the guy will be riding the bench all season long. Had the Bulls been healthy this season we wouldn't even had known what Tony Snell was capable of. He would have been sitting right next to Murphy and Teague.

  • In reply to Tyler Riote:

    it's the same with jimmy last season, if it wasn't for hamilton injured all year and some missed by loul jimmy wouldn't had the chance.

  • From ESPN's LVP(least valuable player) debate which was won by Kendrick Perkins. Hinrich gets dishonorable mention status.

    "Kirk Hinrich, Chicago Bulls: Not many players can make D.J. Augustin look like an All-Star by comparison. Enter Hinrich. The guy is shooting 29 percent over his last 14 games, ever since the Bulls thumped the Miami Heat by 20 points in early December. He can't get into the paint and can't create enough separation to open up passing lanes so he's just brutal to watch run an offense at this stage in his career. Among players with at least 30 minutes per game, Hinrich owns the worst PER at 9.1. I can't believe I'm saying this, but, more Augustin, please."

    Plus this endorsement as least valuable point guard.

    "Curtis Harris, Hardwood Paroxysm: Kirk Hinrich. His effort is there, but the man can't shoot anymore and any playmaking ability he once possessed has vanished. Sadly, with Derrick Rose's injury, Hinrich has no choice but to log heavy minutes despite the woeful production."

    He's just brutal to watch run an offense at this point in his career, hmmm, wonder where I've heard that before.

    Oh well, only 163 days until the Bulls fans emancipation proclamation, i.e amnesty day.

  • In reply to BigWay:

    Hated the Hinrich signing right when it happened, hate it just as much still.

  • Marquis Teague has been traded to Brooklyn Nets. Have no idea about this SF Tornike Shengelia that Bulls received.

    Looks like a salary dump as Teague's contract is guaranteed through the entire 2014-15 season, while Shengelia is only under contract until end of 2014 season. (I'm guessing Bulls will likely withdraw Shengelia's qualifying offer for 2014-15 if that is allowed).

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/2014/01/18/brooklyn-nets-trade-tornike-shengalia-chicago-bulls-marquis-teague/4637925/

  • In reply to Edward:

    Just FYI, the QO isn't made until the day after the last game of the NBA Finals at the earliest, so that's not an issue. I'm sure the Bulls will make a QO, as we've seen with Ben Gordon, it's easy enough to withdraw it if you do it right.

  • Bulls trade Teague to Brooklyn Nets.

  • Bulls move $285,848 further under the 2013-14 luxury tax threshold by trading Teague, which will provide a bit more flexibility for another trade this season.

    Bulls also remove $1,120,920 from next season's 2014-15 payroll, potentially increasing salary cap space a bit for this 2014 off-season. Although roster cap holds may reduce this some.

    Bulls save $153,382 in salary this season (Teague $1,074,720 - Shengelia $788,872 = $285,848 x 44/82 games remaining = $153,382 salary savings). Plus Bulls will save the $1,120,920 Teague is guaranteed for 2014-15 if Bulls can withdraw the current qualifying offer of $1,115,243 to Shengelia for 2014-15.

    $153,382 + $1,115,243 = $1,268,625 savings for Bulls.

  • In reply to Edward:

    Correction:
    $153,382 + $1,120,920 = $1,274,302 salary savings for Bulls.

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