What is the 2014 plan?

Several Bulls media outlets have noted that the Bulls are working on a "2014" plan now. A plan in which they can rebuild the core starting in 2014 rather than maximizing their opportunity to win right now. What exactly is the 2014 plan and how will it work?

In theory, the 2014 plan goes like this:
Luol Deng comes off the books
Carlos Boozer will be amnestied
Nikola Mirotic will come over from Europe

The theory goes that the Bulls will be maximum room under the cap in order to make a bunch of moves, however, it's unlikely to work out nearly so well in practice.

Derrick Rose will make about 19.2 million [most salary sites still show his salary at 17.8, but the max contract went up]. Joakim Noah will make 12.2. They'll have about five million tied up in Butler, Teague, a 2013 rookie, and a 2014 rookie, and they'll likely have to pay Mirotic at least three million to come over. That puts them at 39 million. Let's assume they keep Taj Gibson, now the salary is back up to 48-50 million.

The salary cap will likely rise to around 62 million over this stretch, but if the Bulls go into this off-season with a core of:
Rose
Noah
Gibson
Mirotic
Butler
Teague
2 rookies

They'll have less than max cap room to fill out the team. If they drop off Gibson, they'll have max cap room, but they'll also need to fill up the roster with another starting caliber player.

Theoretically, 2014 could boast many of the stars from the 2010 draft class that passed on us the first time. Bosh, Wade, and LeBron all have opt outs for that season as do Carmelo and Amare. However, would you really want to pursue that class again after the 2010 debacle? In theory, it's a VERY strong free agent class, but the odds of luring anyone seem absurdly low.

The Bulls will have some additional flexibility to do some other things in terms of trades by having the cap space, but again, who are they going to target? Two years is a long time and maybe Kevin Love or LaMarcus Aldridge will be frustrated with their roles on their teams by that point, but there's just as good a chance that it will be Derrick Rose pissed off.

Now instead of this, let's say the Bulls dumped Deng for Richard Jefferson and Harrison Barnes, a deal that was reportedly on the table. The Bulls would add Barnes and about four million in salary to this current core. All of a sudden things look a lot better. Maybe they also dumped Noah for Thomas Robinson, a deal that may have also been on the table, and they don't keep Taj Gibson and amnesty Boozer immediately.

Now instead of
Rose, Noah, Gibson, Mirotic, Butler, Teague, 2 likely mediocre draft picks and a salary of 50 million

They'd have
Rose, Barnes, Robinson, Mirotic, Butler, Teague, 2 draft picks, one of which is likely a high lotto pick, and about 30 million in salary

If you were really playing for 2014 which of those situations is really better? The second one, it's not even close. The Bulls would have significantly more financial flexibility as well as young lottery talent in a strong draft class just beginning to enter its prime similar to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Granted, much depends on how much you believe in Robinson/Barnes, and the Bulls may have selected different players in slots 5/7, but if they wanted to really rebuild this thing for 2014 then THAT is a 2014 plan. The present plan is to field as competitive team as they can without spending much money while simply noting that in 2014 they'll likely have significant roster turnover. However, that roster turnover won't likely lead to a significant improvement over what they have. There are no pieces aligned to make it happen.

In an attempt to maximize their odds for a championship the Bulls could do a full rebuild around 2014, or they could try and maximize their talent around Rose every year. Right now, they're stuck in the middle of the street with a plan that neither maximizes their talent nor maximizes their future talent. The present plan has seen assets walk away for nothing, lessening the Bulls ability to make a move to implement either of the previously mentioned plans at a later date as well.

In short, the 2014 plan is equivalent to the underwear gnome plan

1: Make it to 2014
2: ????
3: Championship

As soon as someone can fill in the ???? with something other than "well they'll bring over Mirotic and clear Boozer off the books and be under the cap" let me know, because if you think swapping Boozer for Mirotic and Deng for some dude making 12 million a year is going to raise the Bulls to championship level, I've got some great bridge investment opportunities for you.

Filed under: Management

Tags: 2014, chicago bulls, nba

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  • If they were really going for the 2014 plan, why stop at dumping Deng and Noah? Why not go the whole hog and cash in Rose for as many draft picks as they can get too? Would ensure the Bulls really suck the next couple of years thus making both their own picks great too.

    So going into 2014 they'd have a core of about half a dozen high lotto picks, with cap space to add in two max vets. It's like a combination of the Thunder and the Heat if everything goes right. And in the meantime payroll is at the CBA mandated floor so you keep JR happy too.

  • In reply to Shakes:

    I assume you're being sarcastic.

    In order to execute the present 2014 plan you have to dump Deng, if you keep Deng in 2014, then you will no longer have cap room which was the purpose of the 2014 plan.

    You wouldn't have to dump Noah, but you could decide on your own whether you'd prefer Thomas Robinson and 8 million in cap room or Noah while going for it in 2014.

  • In reply to DougThonus:

    Yes and no on the sarcasm.

    On one hand I don't favour blowing this team up: it's easier to turn a 60 win team into a championship team than a 40 win one. Heck, sometimes you don't even have to actively do anything, just keep plugging away until you get lucky like Dallas.

    On the other hand if you are going to blow things up I think you have to go the whole hog. If you're going to roll the dice you want as many dice as possible to play with.

    If in this hypothetical blow up scenario Rose could be sent to the Bobcats for MKG, a 2014 first and protection removed from the 2016 first we already have of theirs then I think that's a good deal in the context of trying to tank and stockpile assets plus cap space.

  • In reply to Shakes:

    Which is to say I think your version of the 2014 plan suffers from the same flaw as the org's ... it's a bit of a fence sit. Go all out to win now or tank hard, don't get caught in the middle.

  • In reply to Shakes:

    If they wanted to go with half a dozen lottery picks, they should have done it for this previous draft.

    At least this draft was a strong one...next year's is projected to be weak and in 2014, who knows.

  • Underwear Gnome reference I love it!

    Yeah the Bulls are riding the fence because they don't know what to do. Media assumes a 2014 plan but the Bulls in reality have no plan. They can't even plan six months ahead and see Asik is going to leave for nothing. I think the Underwear Gnomes were more ambitious albeit just as clueless as Bulls FO.

  • In reply to Chad:

    LOL I agree.

    Planning 6 months ahead takes too much work and planning for them to get it done...let alone 2 years from now.

    And I figured out the reason why they didn't get involved in the 3-way trades involving Dwight/Bynum...3-team deals are too complicated for GarPax.

  • In reply to Chad:

    the stupidity of your post almost doesn't warrant comment, but I'll bite. You assume that a franchise like the Bulls doesn't have a plan going into the future? The very idea is stupid beyond all belief. Just because you don't see the direct they are moving in doesn't mean there is no plan. The only thing I would really site as a negative of this Front Office is that they love their own players to much.

  • In reply to Cueil:

    I just read a article from SB Nation, quoting Jerry Reinsdorf from yesterday saying 'Baseball is a religion, baseball is america, basketball is a game.' All these years watching the Bulls making bad decisions compared to the organizations that win. I thought I was watching ineptness when it was really love...(swoon).

  • In reply to Cueil:

    Ownership has placed severe restrictions on what the bulls management can do to execute it.

  • In reply to Cueil:

    the stupidity of your post almost doesn't warrant comment, but I'll bite. You assume that a franchise like the Bulls has a plan going into the future? The very idea is stupid beyond all belief. If you don't see the direction they are moving in it probably means there is no plan.

  • Sweet. Can you tell Nick Fridel at ESPN1000 to shut up about 2014? Also, can he join the WTF GAR FOREMAN stop letting assets go for profits. I was referring to cj, brewer, and korver rather than Asik.

  • In reply to pinkizdead:

    It's too funny how fans react to Friedell.

    And how do we know the 2014 plan isn't the plan the Bulls FO is going after?

    From what we have seen this offseason (not moving the big contracts but just replacing the bench)...why wouldn't they do the exact same thing next year (keep the big contracts, swap out the bench)?

    And if they DO do that, that would mean they're planning for 2014

  • In reply to YouBlewwIt:

    That's the purpose of this article, if you wanted to go for it in 2014 then you would have made different moves.

  • In reply to pinkizdead:

    Korver was a head scratcher... but CJ and Brewer were both in the dog house for their lack of performance in the post season and after seeing Butler play in the Summer League I think that he'll replace their scoring with ease.

  • I've been making this same argument since Rose got hurt. I would probably keep Noah, but that depends on how you feel about Robinson. I would also amnesty Boozer, which coupled with the Rose injury and moving Noah/Deng would almost certainly assure another lotto pick in the next draft.

    The main point is well made though, if you have a 2014 plan then have one that maximizes potential. It appears now that the Bulls really have no such plan, but are hoping something falls in their lap.
    Looking at the FA list for 2014, I would suspect the Bulls #1 target to be Deng.

  • In reply to Hoover:

    "I would suspect the Bulls #1 target to be Deng."

    Anybody who reads this might think you're making a joke, but if when they actually look at the 2014 list...Deng is probably the most realistic FA the Bulls get...and if you're taking history into consideration, the Bulls will probably overpay to keep Deng at 4yrs and $48mil.

  • In reply to YouBlewwIt:

    Thats Paxsons boy you know Deng is the top target. He will be followed closely by Kirk Hinrich.

  • In reply to Chad:

    See below for the 2013 and 2014 FA class I listed

  • In reply to YouBlewwIt:

    I wasn't joking and your list explains why.

  • In reply to Hoover:

    You're probably right. They could attempt to pursue LeBron again, but not with any real hope of getting him.

  • I think what this points to is incompetence in the front office. It's not a lack of funds stopping GarPax, it's a lack of ability, a lack of creativity, a lack of persuasive ability to get teams to part with players or with players to come to the Bulls. I think blaming cheap ownership is misguided because I see no evidence that spending money is the key to winning in the NBA.

  • In reply to Roman F:

    Everything has to go through ownership so its not misguided at all. The Bulls have no plans in place for 2014. The only way I see them rebuilding for 2014 is to start trading core guys on the team probably starting this year if they can, and if some of the core guys start out having a good year. The Bulls need to get more athletic cause the team that they have now is nowhere near that especially with Rose being out. Come this years trade deadline, even tho I know that its impossible for GarPax to be creative enough to trade Boozer, he should be priority number 1 to get off the books if they somehow can come up with a trade for him. Deng and Noah in that order would be the last to try to trade if they absolutely have to trade Noah as much as I would hate it. This will be the only way that the Bulls will be able to retool this team to be a contender for 2014. Theyre going to have to bring in some scorers to take some of the pressure off of Rose especially with him coming off of a serious injury. And again... the way for the Bulls being a true contender...ATHLETIC WING PLAYERS THAT CAN SCORE FROM THE PERIMETER AND GET TO THE BASKET. How they will get this done will be a big challenge imo.

  • In reply to Reese1:

    I couldn't agree more with dumping Boozer, Deng and Noah and focusing on athletic wings. I have always called the Bulls "Derrick Rose & The Below The Rim Players". GarPax needs to get players that can run with Rose. But Paxson has been fixated with "grinders" like himself.

  • In reply to Reese1:

    Been saying this since 2 years ago now, when the Dwight-trade rumors first began and Bulls were being mentioned....no matter what happens, Boozer was going to be safe.

    If the Bulls traded for Dwight, ORL wasn't taking Boozer's contract and he was going to stay.

    If Bulls didn't trade for Dwight, he wasn't getting Amnestied and he's going to stay.

    Even prior to the draft, Deng+Noah's names were thrown around as a way for the Bulls to shed some salary...because nobody wanted Boozer.

    So that's why it all comes down to Boozer. If Boozer was Amnestied, Deng+Noah would be safe because the Bulls would be under the salary cap. Now that they've already let Free Agency pass this year, even if they decide to Amnesty Boozer next year, they won't have much cap space (and if they resign Taj for $8-10mil) have no cap space at all.

  • In reply to Reese1:

    You may find we already have one in Jimmy Butler.... plus he's a foul creating machine

  • In reply to Cueil:

    Let's hope he still does that in the regular season.

  • This 2014 plan just doesn't seem like it will be successful. They need to get a dynamic player like Rudy Gay and I doubt they can. Probably they might get one of JR's agent friend Arn Tellem's clients like Pau Gasol who will take a slight discount due to age. Why wait for 2014, why not try to get Kevin Martin or Monta Ellis in 2013. Look at the Milwaukee Bucks, they were the worst offense a few years ago, they got Monta Ellis, adopted an uptempo philosophy and had a high scoring 5th rated offense last season. We all feel Offense is the problem but can the Bulls shake it up a bit and bring in that scorer with a changed philosophy like Popavich did for the Spurs who had a stagnant offense a few years ago but are one of the best in the league now. GarPax have to realise we have an offensive problem and getting someone like Hinrich doesn't solve our problem but compounds it. We have no post scoring, no ability to get to the line, no ability on fast breaks. We are a jumpshooting team that relies on rainbow jumpers from boozer(long 2s) and the 3ball, hoping to shot the other team's offense which just can't always be done.

  • In reply to Defense-Rebound13:

    I agree totally about needing a player like Gay or Ellis. The problem is how do get one of them? What assets can we trade? Will Gay come here in 2014 if we offer a 7 figure contract? Are we that much better with Gay and Mirotic than we are with Boozer and Deng? I think the Bulls really missed a great opportunity this off-season...

    I would have used Korver's trade exception to bring in Mayo. I am not a huge Mayo fan, but I think he would have given us lots of flexibility. His contract would have most likely looked like 2 yrs 9-10mil. He would give us a scorer to help until Rose returns and then ease Rose's scoring burden once back. I know the next part is pure speculation but imagine in one year if Ellis tell Milwaukee he is exercising his ETO. We could then offer Mayo, Rip, and a pick. That would give them a "decent" replacement, a pick, and cheap 1 mil buyout player to keep some cap space.

    Even if this didnt happen... maybe Mayo plays great and we keep him or if he stinks it up he is still gone in two years anyway and our "2014 plan" is still intact. Mayo would ONLY have cost twice as much as Belinelli.

    Sorry for taking up so much space with this, but that is the one move that I felt would give the Bulls a better player and more options/ flexibility. Any thoughts?

  • In reply to Defense-Rebound13:

    I too think 2013 should have been the plan instead of 2014, but the Bulls already screwed themselves for next year. This year, they had a taker (TOR who would have given up Calderon's $10mil expiring and their 8th pick). Now Bulls have to pray somebody takes on Deng's contract AND Amnesty Boozer, just to have enough to throw $10+mil at one of these SGs.

    2013 has SGs like Monta, Kmart, Iggy, Harden, and Manu.

    2014 has SGs like Kobe and Wade, with Kobe staying or retiring, and Wade most likely staying.

    So it comes down to Gay (has a PO at $18-19mil so he might just stay, or opt out to resign a longer term deal) or Granger at the SF positions. And is Granger really better than Deng?

    Knowing the Bulls, they'll probably plan for 2014, fail to get anybody, and then resign Deng for 4yrs $48mil.

  • I agree that there is no 2014 plan. Who is the savior in 2014 that's coming to the Bulls? And the question I really want to ask is does Rose's $19.2 million salary eat up too much of the cap for the Bulls to make a move? LeBron, Wade and Bosh signed their contracts at the same time, all taking a little less to fit into the cap. With Rose's "lump" already sitting there, can it be said that maybe Rose is not worth the money?

  • In reply to Vic Nardozza:

    2014 is a fail FA class for us Bulls (see below)

  • All the inside media pre-draft on NBA TV etc. were saying a top 5-7 pick was available to the Bulls for Deng by taking on bad salary. Derrick Rose is a ratings money maker of the highest order. Does anybody really believe with today's ACL comebacks and technology that Derrick won't very likely come back virtually the same player? He just won't be doing an inordinate amount of around the basket bending, twisting contortions.

    Even if you have doubts about Derrick being the same guy, Name me a championship team that hasn't built it's conrerstone(s) through the draft? The Lakers used a lottery pick in essence to swap a previous draft pick in Kobe. They in essence "drafted" an unproven player. Boston had Pierce and the key trading piece in Al Jefferson. Miami had Wade and a key trading piece in Lamar Ododm. Chicago had Michael and Scottie. The Spurs lucky no doubt yet they also drafted Tony Parker and Ginobli. Only Detroit comes to mind as a team built around savvy acquistions in Billups, Hamilton, and the Wallaces.

    So basically with one of the deepest drafts in quality players at their doorstep, thee life blood of championship aspirations, Paxson and Forman chose to.. wave bye-bye.

    Derrick Rose IMO "was" a superstar player though at a turning point in his career due to a lack of offensive support which teams finally keyed in on, and thus access denied to the basket, he lost confidence in his shooting. Especially overly concentrating on threes which is by no means entirely his fault(ah-hem, Thibs)

    Now, with a cheap franchise with a poor reputation and a non-magnetic persona in Rose it's doubtful we attract those missing star pieces. The only way it's going to happen is by brining in another offesnively potent player in his prime i.e the draft. Leaving the option of trading said highly valued offensive star or near so for a legit SG should we draft that talent at another position.

    Simply, the refusal to amnesty Boozer early on for a $5-6 Mil a year escrow or deferred payment and one year of two bad salaries followed by one more with a wasted $7 Mil(wich is a net gain losing Luol's contract) cost Bulls fans a chance at a truly exciting time possibly culminating in a championship.

    Instead, that draft has come and gone and tumbleweeds like Radmanovic and Belinelli are blowing across the U.C. court. Fuck you very much Jerry Reinsdorf and a truly punked out Gar/Pax. So sad a market like Chicago has to put up with this shit. Enabling U.C. corporate tickets and souless yuppies be damned.

    And yes, I will be getting NBA League Pass, and no way in hell do I buy any tickets to attend Bulls games. Derrick Rose you have gone down the wrong path signing long term with this cheap ass joke of a franchise. And your leech brother will take that ensured money all the way to the bank - as in the Cayman Islands. You tell me what this offensively baron wasteland is going to do to a turning point offensive confidence in question Derrick Rose? Again, Reinsdorf and Gar/Pax you suck balls. Make that goat balls.

  • In reply to RoadWarrior:

    Great comments. Reinsdorf's only interest in the Bulls is to squeeze every dollar out of his cash cow (pun intended), winning be damned. And the ineffectiveness, ineptness, cowardice and lack for foresight of GarPax to make bold deals to improve the Bulls is mind-numbing. It's all about putting on a circus so the North Shore snobbery have somewhere to go on cold winter nights.

  • In reply to RoadWarrior:

    Agreed with everything you said.

    1) Amnestying Boozer early not only saves Reinsdorf more money, but it gives us Cap Space to win the bid on Luis Scola (legit low-post player...tough...physical...plays defense)

    2) I think Deng could have been had for SAC's 5th+Salmons (or at the very least, Tyreke+Garcia), GSW's 7th+Biedrins or RJeff (both have 2 years left on their contracts which is basically what they're going to do with Deng...letting him expire in 2 years), or TOR's 8th+Calderon (Calderon > Hinrich and expires).

    3) If they don't want to spend $8-10mil on Taj (and if they do, 2013 is definitely out of the equation), then you can trade him for a lottery pick (10-14).

    4) Then without Deng+Taj+potentially no Rose for 2013, Bulls would b in the lottery. So if the plan is truly for 2014, the Bulls could have Barnes, Ross, Rivers, or Lamb 2 years into their development, a low-post scorer in Scola, 2 lottery picks (via CHI and Taj) and STILL max cap space for 2014.

    Instead all they have no for 2014 is Cap Space.

  • In reply to RoadWarrior:

    While I was all for moving Deng for a lottery pick, you simply place way too much faith in the draft, especially this one.

    According to your theory the Rockets should be NBA champs in 3 years with a stating lineup of Lin and Asik, @$15 million a piece along with this years draft picks Jeremy Lamb, Royce White and Terrance Jones.

    You have to be both lucky and good to make the blow it up for draft picks plan work, truth be told, more lucky than good

  • In reply to BigWay:

    Actually, the Rockets will have Lin + Asik + Lamb, White & Jones all for about 20 million dollars in 3 years. Lin and Asik count 8 million against the cap for Houston, not the 15 that they would have cost NY and Chicago. They still have an obnoxious amount of cap space, which could still end up getting them Dwight Howard when all is said and done.

  • Etwaun Moore has been waived by the Rockets, hopefully the Bulls will bring him in to training camp or summer league. I think with the right team he can be a solid player.

  • In reply to Reese1:

    Is he a 1 or 2 guard? The Bulls need another point guard because Marquis Teague was dreadful in the summer league and not ready to play in the NBA yet.

  • In reply to Vic Nardozza:

    What do you mean? The Bulls have Hinrich. He'll play SG. He'll play PG. He'll score efficiently, handle the ball deftly, and pretty much take care of anything you need from the guard position.

    Hell, word has it that Lovie Smith may borrow him every Sunday to play guard for the Bears, too....Hinrich is just so great at all things guard.

  • In reply to Salvamini:

    Hinrich is starting at point until Rose is better. Right now the Bulls don't have a backup point guard because, as seen in the summer league, Marquis Teague is not ready for even backup minutes.

  • In reply to Vic Nardozza:

    Moore is a 2 guard but could probably play some point but I think his primary position is 2.

  • In reply to Vic Nardozza:

    Teague improved in every single game... that is the point of the summer league... if he sucked and didn't show improvements then maybe I agree, but he is a work in progress and his ability will increase with NBA level talent surrounding him instead of mostly jokers like the Summer League

  • In reply to Reese1:

    Moore is an 'undersized SG' at 6'4. He's not a PG. He's a straight up shooter.

    Would love to get him, but he has to pass waivers from every team (Bulls being one of the last is my guess because of their previous season record). And with a HUGE Summer League, I think one of the bottom feeder teams will pick him up for the $800k or whatever amount he's making...just like Jon Leuer didn't get past CLE.

  • I'm not sure if this piece was an argument for blowing it up, but it seemed like an argument that the rhetoric of the organization/beat reporters was bullshit.

  • In reply to pinkizdead:

    I think it was more of questioning the 2014 strategy that is being bandied about by Bulls org/beat reporters...but from what they have done this offseason, do you think they're planning for next year (2013)?

    The answer is No.

  • Does anyone at this point really worry about passed around low draft choices who have proven nothing. Not saying one couldn't prove to be a solid bench guy thought the odds are low. But after losing out on all this draft talent who really gives a shit anymore?

  • In reply to RoadWarrior:

    I would dump Butler, Teague, the next 3 1stRounders (essentially 5 1stRounders) + Noah for Harden+Perkins right now.

  • What does "on the table" mean?

  • In reply to SoulEater7:

    Not sure if you're serious or not...

    But if you are, it means there was an offer presented ...'on the table' to be had

  • In reply to YouBlewwIt:

    How does he know?

  • In reply to SoulEater7:

    Because that was what was being reported by multiple sources.

    Of course GarPax came out after a week of those speculation and said something to the effect of 'Deng is not being shopped to GSW'...but didn't say Deng wasn't being shopped anywhere else.

    Now if you are one of those fans that ONLY believes what a team's front-office tells you, then I am sorry for you.

  • Doug, don't even try. The organization has leaked their little 2014 "plan" to all the local media outlets, so they can reassure fans about it for two years. It gives fans something to hold close at night after bad losses they're not used to in the Thibodeau era.

    How about Asik? If Bill Simmons cared enough to comment, he might say: Any time you can talk up a player for four years, not trade him for valuable assets because he's considered too valuable, then let him walk for nothing, you do it.

    Then again, Simmons is probably just counting his blessings about all this. The rivalry is Heat/Celtics and who saw that coming?

  • In reply to Hunter:

    The nothing for Omer thing gets me too. They could have offered him an extension or traded him before hitting the open market. Could GarPax have bungled that any worse?

  • In reply to Hunter:

    The Bulls are to blame for thinking teams wouldn't overpay for a position of need/rare...especially for a team that has been looking for a Center for the past 6 years.

  • BRUTAL

  • why can't luol sign at a lower salary?

  • In reply to mepeterser2451:

    He can't right now. NBA doesn't allow players to restructure their deals (not saying he would anyway).

    But if you're talking about in 2014 after his current contract expires, he could sign at a lower salary, but from $13mil to $10mil per...which does what...nothing really.

  • We've really got to hope that:

    A. Mirotic comes over in 2014

    B. Mirotic is good enough to be a #2 on a championship team.

    All the comments above have illustrated that this is really the only way the Bulls are going to win a championship. It's, of course, not the only possible way, but the only means that seems to be a viable option with JR and Gar/Pax running the show.

  • In reply to Hoover:

    That's a lot of expectations for a guy that didn't even make his own national team. I think he will be good but a #2 on a championship team is a star player and that is too high of an expectation IMO.

    I could see projecting Ryan Anderson type numbers but no one thinks Anderson is a star player.

    Gar/Pax duo won't ever win a championship IMO.

  • So the Bulls are planning for 2014...let's see the FA class of 2014:

    Wade (ETO) - Staying
    Kobe (UFA) - Staying/Retiring
    Lebron (ETO) - Staying
    Melo (ETO) - Staying
    Gay (PO) - Staying
    Granger (UFA)
    Pierce (UFA) - Staying/Retiring
    Bosh (ETO) - Staying
    Dirk (UFA) - Staying/Retiring
    Pau (UFA)
    Amare (ETO) - Staying
    Z-Bo (PO) - Staying
    Bargnani (ETO)
    Bogut (UFA)
    Gortat (UFA)

    So the 2014 will comes down to Granger, Pau, Bargnani, Bogut, and Gortat....and when the Bulls miss out on everybody (as history has shown), they'll just resign Deng for 4yrs and $48mil.

    Instead, they should planned for the 2013 season and traded Deng for Calderon's expiring+8th Pick. Then Amnestying Boozer this offseason could have yielded us Luis Scola at $4mil per (or Amnestying him next year gives the max cap space for 2013):

    Monta (ETO)
    Iggy (ETO)
    Tyreke (RFA)
    Kmart (UFA)
    Harden (RFA) - OKC can't afford him and Ibaka
    DeRozan (RFA) -
    Manu (UFA) - Staying/Retiring
    Josh Smith (UFA) - If no Dwight...Leaving
    West (UFA)
    Ibaka (RFA) - OKC can't afford him and Harden
    Milsap (UFA)
    Al Jeff (UFA)
    Dwight (UFA)
    Bynum (UFA)
    Pek (UFA)

    Now you tell me what FA class is better for the Bulls?

  • In reply to YouBlewwIt:

    Well John Paxson would look at this list and see how old the guys on the 2014 list are and start drooling.

    I agree though that any thoughts of winning big in 2014 FA are stupid. 1. Paxson couldn't sign his own mother and 2. stars don't like the Bulls even if he could sign them. Not to mention the obvious that most of them have better teams than the Bulls. Its a plan designed to fail miserably not to mention it hinges on amnestying Boozer which has zero chance of happening.

    I just hope that JR wakes up and fires Dumb & Dumber and gets an actual talent evaluator as a GM instead of some idiot that shot jump shots. Although our luck it would be Steve Kerr or Pippen...

  • To make a comparison, Paxson has been like the proverbial A to B coach. He’s a good enough of a GM to take a team out of the doldrums, but not good enough to bring them to a championship. In this metaphor Pax is Doug Collins, and the Bulls need a Phil Jackson.

  • There's an interesting new post over at Philadunkia (a 76ers blog). According to Steve Toll's calculations, Joakim Noah was the 6th best "value" of all NBA players during the 2011-12 regular season. Basically, Toll's formula compares the number of Wins Produced by an individual player to his contract. Here's his Top 10:

    2011-12 Most Valuable Regular Season Players by WinsProduced
    1. Lebron 13.45 ($17.5m/yr)
    2. CP3 11.38 ($17.8m/yr)
    3. KD 10.21 ($16.7m/yr)
    4. Tyson Chandler 9.65 ($13.6m/yr)
    5. KLove 8.87 ($13.7m/yr)
    6. Joakim Noah 8.62 ($11.3m/yr)
    7. James Harden 8.43 ($5.8m/yr)
    8. Andre “Overpayed, Roleplayer” Iguodala 8.03 ($14.7m/yr)
    9. Blake Griffin 7.8 ($7.2m/yr)
    10. Ryan Anderson 7.71 ($8.7m/yr)

    Toll's formula compares Wins Produced to Salary. The number it gives for each player (Noah = 8.62) is basically how good a value a player is; a higher number corresponds to more "valuable." I included the salaries in parentheses for comparison purposes, but obviously each player's contract is already taken into account by Toll's calculation.

    Still, I think it's worth noting that Noah's contract is relatively small compared to the other highly "valuable" players (he's the 4th "cheapest" on the Top 10 list) because while Noah eats up a sizable amount of our salary cap, his contract is small enough not to be the largest on his team. Four of the five players above Noah have the largest salaries on their respective teams: LBJ, CP3, KD, and KLove. Chandler is the 3rd largest on the Knicks. Meanwhile Noah is, of course, only the 4th highest paid player on the Bulls.

    Toll's particular formula is far from perfect. It seems to overvalue big men and players who produced old-school stats (rebounds, blocks, steals). And it doesn't account for playoff performance or injuries (except for players like Rose who missed too many games).

    The formula's shortcomings are especially clear when we consider that the only other two Bulls on Toll's top 50 most "valuable" list are Boozer 5.8 ($15.0m/yr) at #27 and Deng 4.76 ($13.3m/yr) at #42. Hard to see how Boozer was more valuable than Deng (or Gibson, for that matter) according to a formula that takes salary into account.

    That said, the formula leaves little doubt that Noah is worth his contract and probably more.

  • In reply to bzoooty:

    Here's the link:

    http://philadunkia.com/?p=6956

  • In reply to bzoooty:

    My description of the Top 10 list above may have been somewhat off: it actually appears to just be a list of players who produced the most wins regardless of salary.

    Toll says, "The wins produced are a mix of advance stats calculations that take into consideration the players entire regular season." If anything, that means WP might favor players on teams that won a lot of games like the Bulls. Either way, the fact that Noah's salary is so low compared to the other major win producers presumably makes him even more "valuable." He earned $2.4m less than Love but only produced 0.25 fewer wins.

  • I find myself wondering how much his experience with the Bulls during the championship run actually hinders Paxson in making basketball decisions.

    The Bulls lucked into Michael Jordan. They were smart & safe when they drafted Horace Grant, and made a pretty shrewd draft day move to land Pippen.

    The current Bulls lucked into Rose. They were smart & safe when they drafted Noah. I could see how the Tyrus Thomas trade was Paxson's attempt to recreate the Pippen trade (taking a guy that could jump out of the gym over a more 'known commodity'...unfortunately, the intangibles weren't there like Pippen...nor the star to train with/against).

    Maybe I am looking too much into it. However, I can't shake the feeling that GarPax just aren't fully cognizant of the fact that the rules of the game have changed, as has the playing field. It seems like they keep looking back (Hinrich) when they need to keep the organizational eyes forward.

  • More whining. More glass half-empty. The sum total of assets lost is the fourth big man/backup center who played 10-15 minutes/game and expiring contracts. The bulls still have expiring in the new guys they signed this year and Hamilton and next year in Hinrich and Deng. So basically they lost their backup center, a guy they spent some second round picks on iirc. Devastating...

    And there is this implicit and pervasive sentiment in your posts that last year was the best the bulls will be able to be. That couldn't be more wrong. The new CBA is crushing the middle tier of NBA talent salary wise. There are going to be a lot more talented guys going for lower salary numbers going forward. Brewer and Watson signed for minimum deals. The bulls are going to be able to replace that type of talent easily and have already upgraded on Watson. Butler can play defense and if he can consistently hit a jumper, he's better overall than Brewer.

    So why don't they blow it up and start over????!!!! Paxson's one fault is he is never going to throw in the towel and tank. The goal is always the playoffs. So he isn't going to sell off pieces for guys who may or may not mail it in and collect a check and hope mid-to-late lottery picks blossom, at least not any time soon. And especially not when he has an MVP PG coming back in a year.

    Also, wrt to the Deng trade for Jefferson and Barnes, where is the value for the bulls. Barnes isn't a 2/SG. Mirotic is a stretch 4 or a 3. If you keep Gibson, he's a 4. So why would you want to double up there at 3? There are going to be better opportunities to move Deng.

    And furthermore, why the rush to do anything? Is 2012-13 the last NBA season that is going to be played? Do the bulls lose something if they don't win the championship next year? Reports are that Rose won't be back until March. Why not let other teams panic and force their hand as opposed to turning the whole thing over in two months? Put a decent team on the court and make smart moves, not rushed ones. Deal from a position of strength, not weakness.

  • We lost size and depth the two strengths of the team. We also lost all shot creation ability from the PG position. Which just happens to be what our offense depends on... Why would other teams panic when they are improving? Lakers looked stacked now and Heat loaded up with some nice adds too. Bulls are clearly a second class team even if fully healthy. If you are not a contender then you should be building or rebuilding not scuttling assets and pretending like you are a good team.

    One of Paxson's many faults is not knowing when to capitalize on assets. He missed on moving Ben Gordon and has repeated the mistake with Asik. Two big assets to let walk for nothing in return. You say it was only a couple second rounders? It was four second rounders for a two year rental. That is not some oh well we blew a second rounder that is oh shit we blew four years worth of second round picks.

    Personally I would rather have Harrison Barnes then wait and watch either Deng get resigned to another overpaid contract or see him walk for nothing. Paxsons other big fault is thinking small which also plays into the above flaw of not knowing when to make a move. If you want to be the perennial 76ers hard working team with no title shot but we love them because they are the scrappy underdog then John Paxson is your man. If you prefer to actually have star players and a real title shot then you need someone else. Only thing John Paxson has done good is to be so gun shy and scared when it came time to make a big move that our team collapsed and we lucked into D Rose.

    You say wait. I say why? What move is going to be better next year than it was this year? Why is Deng going to be worth more next year? Because he is expiring contract? That doesn't matter to the Bulls they aren't taking on salary... If you can get into the lottery during a deep draft you do it. Why wait and possibly do it during a weak one? Why not snap up late firsts or second rounders in one of the deepest drafts in years? Poor planning IMO. John Paxson couldn't manage his way out of paper bag. Hope he gets all the flack he deserves when his team falls flat on their face because no one can f**king create any offense!

  • There's a statistics-heavy post over at Wages of Wins that suggests Marquis Teague was the least effective player in all of Summer League. It's only Summer League and Teague is a young point guard who needs opportunities to fail, develop, and get better. Nevertheless, these numbers are pretty awful. They suggest that those of us seriously disappointed in how this off-season has gone perhaps shouldn't be comforted by how the Bulls drafted. I was glad we took Teague because I thought he had upside. This is giving me doubts.

    http://wagesofwins.com/2012/07/26/nba-summer-league-2012-the-numbers/

    Marquis Teague
    Team: Chicago Bulls
    Simple Production Score: -12.5

    "It’s funny, the Bulls were projected by most mock drafts to select exactly who I thought they should take (Will Barton). Instead, they took the worst player in the draft in my estimation. The Bulls’ offseason has been among the worst in recent memory. They let two productive wings (Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver) go to sign an unproductive wing (Marco Belinelli). They let go of a productive backup center (Omer Asik). And they drafted Teague, who was the second least productive player per minute and the least productive player overall at summer league. He was bad across the board, but of particular concern is his shooting (eFG%: .294) and his turnovers (6.7 per 48)."

  • Marquis Teague is 19. He will still be 19 when next season ends. Get real.

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    Keep; Rose, & Noah, Dump; Deng, & Heinrich. GO BULLS.

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