The new NBA model and why Chicago should consider trading Luol Deng

The Thunder and Heat might be the last of a generation in terms of how their teams are built. The new NBA salary cap model will make three star teams like theirs incredibly difficult to put and keep together. Only by a confluence of drafting three stars and getting them through their rookie salary structures will this be possible with the new cap limitations which will punish teams financially and by limited flexibility.

It might not be choking by LeBron that stops the Heat from winning three championships but the mere fact that keeping the Heat together for another three years will become a Hercuilian task even with the ability to sign ring chasers cheaper than many other teams.

The Thunder will face similar problems themselves, and when James Harden comes up for an extension, they'll likely have to move either him, Westbrook, or play with a particularly pathetic front court that is filled with two or three players on the minimum or near it and only one guy with any real competence.

The Bulls are almost in a worse situation. They don't have a big three, but a big four, and their big four isn't performing at the same level as the big three of those above teams but still commands the dollar amounts. They can get out of Carlos Boozer's contract by using the amnesty clause if it becomes too unpalatable while they only have to hold off for two seasons on Luol Deng prior to his expiring.

Chicago needs to make the tough choice and ask themselves, can the team as constructed really beat Miami or OKC at their peak next year while fighting through a poor seeding situation, losing much of their depth, and likely still having their marquee player at less than 100% in the playoffs as Rose tries to build back the mental/physical trust in his leg after ACL surgery?

The obvious answer to that question, if we're honest with ourselves, is no. They don't really have a chance. They'll come back with less talent and worse problems and would have struggled to do it this year if they were at their peak which they almost certainly won't be next season.

If Chicago reaches that conclusion then the next thought is what do things look like in 2013/14? Your big four are going to cost you around 57.3 million by themselves. If you keep Asik and Gibson as well, you're already at the tax limit with six players on the squad and Derrick Rose as the only guard.

You can (and likely will) amnesty Boozer to free up salary space, but whatever flaws you ascribe to Boozer, trying to fill up seven roster spots with his 15 million while tossing him off the team isn't going to make things better. The obvious answer is that Luol Deng needs to go.

He's a solid, but not great, two way player. He's very good defensively, a great character guy, and a good system player on offense. However, he's not a dynamic player. He's not a player who can fill up 14 million on the books and provide that value. If we make the leap that Deng has to go, and the leap that the Bulls aren't likely to win next season. It becomes a matter of timing.

Chicago's best chance to get value for Deng is right now. It's a very deep draft where Chicago can likely find an impact player through proper scouting in the late lottery area. Deng could likely be moved for such a pick fairly easily.

Possibly trades for Luol:
Kings: John Salmons [2/15.6 mil + non guaranteed year] + #5
Warriors: Jefferson [2/21 mil] + #7
Warriors: Biedrins [2/18 mil] + #7
Raptors: Calderon [1/10.5 mil] + #8
Pistons: Gordon [2/24 mil] + #9
Pistons: Villanueva [2/16.5 mil] + #9
Hornets: Ariza [2/15 mil] + #10

I don't know that I'd do all or any of these trades, but these are trades which might make some sense for the other team as well as Chicago, but these are the types of deals the Bulls could use to trade short term value for long term value. I guarantee there will be a player in this draft that emerges to play better than Deng at #10, the question is would the Bulls find him? The odds will be difficult because the majority of prospects won't be better, and it would take some great scouting to pull it off.

Chicago can keep rolling down the conservative path they're on, and they'll likely perform better over the next two seasons by doing so. They'll likely fill us with hope with quality play in the regular season and come up short in the playoffs. They'll watch assets like Deng, Omer and Taj decline. Deng due to age, Omer/Taj due to new market value contracts.

If a star emerges on the trading block, they'll have to hope that Mirotic + the Charlotte pick + a veteran is enough to get it done because they won't have much else to offer.

Don't get me wrong, the team won't be doomed to failure if it goes this route, they'll likely remain one of the top two teams in the conference with Miami being the top team. They'll just be a top two team on the decline hoping to get lucky one season. Dallas won the championship with that model. Of course, Dallas also had a 94 million dollar pay roll to add incredible depth, something that won't happen again with the new tax rules.

The plan of reinvesting in a youth movement has the most likely result of leaving Chicago worse off over the next two seasons than they are now and possibly no better off in season three [though they'll be looking to rebuild in season three either way with Boozer/Deng both likely gone at this point]. However, this is a good draft class to invest in.

There's ample opportunity to get score big with players in this draft to set themselves up for a big run in two or three years. Do you sacrifice maybe a 10% chance of winning the title next two seasons in order to try to build yourself a much higher percentage in seasons three through five from now?

Few GMs would have the backing of ownership to make such a move, but I believe Gar Forman and John Paxson have that type of security that they could.

Trading away expensive assets doesn't necessarily mean Chicago needs the draft picks to become stars for them either. When a player becomes available on the trade market, reloading with cheap prospects will allow them to put together a reasonable package to offer another team. Something that they'd struggle to do right now.

Moreover, I think the new look NBA is going to prevent teams from stacking up big contracts. You're going to see the developed talent in the league spread out a heck of a lot more with teams frequently looking to reinvest in the draft in order to load up on some cheap talent to balance out their expensive veteran talent.

Chicago was ahead of the game on their use of non guaranteed contracts two summers ago. They should get ahead of this curve as well because Luol's value will decrease next year and the draft class won't be as stacked even if they pull off a trade. It's time to pick the window to win a title, and the best chance to win won't be with Luol Deng in the next two seasons.

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  • Thanks and I agree with your article. One thing I have seen is the Kings have Francisco Garcia on contract for next year with a club option the following year at $6 mill - he is not worth his contract, but for one year only and getting the #5, he might be worth taking the risk since we are not winning it next year.

  • In reply to kevinstates:

    Which is why I think SAC would want to throw Salmons with the 5th pick.

    Plus Salmons plays their SF position and Deng would need to be swapped for him.

    And I would make that trade anyway.

  • Also would like to hear your comments on the remarks on ESPN about a possibility of a Noah + 29th pick for Tyreke Evans and the 5th pick with Sacramento. I'm not sure i'd do it as I really like Noah and what he brings but it's interesting none the less.

  • In reply to MaTT623:

    This is a gamble in two ways.
    1) Will you get someone as good as Noah with the pick? If so, do the trade, because the new draft pick will be cheaper for 4 years. But that is a big if. The issue is talent evaluation.
    2) If Tyreke develops into something really good, the Bulls will then have to overpay for him in a year to keep him.

    Instead, if the Bulls could S&T for Deron Williams, say Noah, Hamilton, Charlotte pick, and #29, then the Bulls have someone very solid for certain. But they would have to sell Williams on coming. To me, this makes more sense if they can do it. I think the salaries would match.

    Theoretically, if you can get 3 superstars for $16 million each per year, you should be able to fill out the rest of the roster for about $22 million and stay under the cap. But you will need some good, cheap draftees to pull this off! If you are paying a Boozer $15 mil, or a Deng $14 mil, or a Rose $21 mil, or even a Noah $12 mil, it blows up the scheme.

    So, trade Rose for Williams (at $16 mil per year), trade Noah and Deng and the Charlotte pick for D Howard, and you have a contender with good fill-ins for now, plus Mirotic in 2 years (He would come over for the 2014/2015 season.). If they amnesty Boozer, the Bulls are under the cap this year.

  • In reply to MaTT623:

    I think that would be the dumbest move the Bulls could do,as it would involve their bigs . Don't get me wrong, when first reported through NBA.com , that Evans was available I salivated that possibility too. Kevin and Doug shot it down saying his attitude was questionable as well as his perimeter game, and future contract issues etc .

    Eliminating Deng and his contract would at least keep some of the Bulls advantage in the frontcourt - with Evans in the fold . He would require work that involves his defense and outside shot , something he would welcome coming from hell .

    You have to give, to get , I feel you but first feel out if they would take Deng first as I along with every other blogger here feels he's reached his ceiling here in Chicago . 7 footers are gonna be a premium and shouldn't be carted away for draft picks or unproven players. Deng simply makes The most sense in said equations .

  • In reply to MaTT623:

    I would do that trade in a heartbeat. I even think kings won't accept it because they have too much to loose doing that.

    Noah=5th pick but Evans ­­­­is much better than the 29th one.

  • In reply to MaTT623:

    @MaTT623 - Noah ...for... Tyreke+5th is actually a pretty fair deal from an objective standpoint, but I wouldn't do it because I like what Noah does and means to this team. I'm not one of those homers who say he's untouchable/untradeable. I'm just saying trading away Noah sets your team back a couple steps because of everything Noah does for this team (defense, rebounding, energy, hustle, chemistry, etc).

    Tyreke may or may not turn out to be an All-Star Caliber player. The 5th pick (most likely Andre Drummond or Barnes) would be conflicting because Bulls still have Deng playing Barnes's position, and Drummond has been compared to DeAndre Jordan/JaVale McGee (took 4-5 years and they're still actually pretty raw) on the high side, and Hasheem Thaebeet on the low side.

    @rustyw - When you trade a proven NBA for a draft pick, the draft pick is SUPPOSE to not be better than the player you're trading away. The draft pick symbolizes hope, potential, but more importantly (for the Owners) a cheap substitution.

    If Tyreke turns into something good, not wanting to pay him is not a good excuse man. If he's good, you pay him, bottom line. The problem is, will Tyreke turn into that good player or not. I have hope for him because of the talent he has, but a lot of people are down on him.

    Zero chance Bulls are doing a S&T for Dwill that involves trading Rose down the road. Just not realistic.

    @mummuhwalde - Yup. I would trade Deng before Noah.

    @deewaves - Noah = 5th Pick ??? In what world is that suppose to be true? Noah is better than the 5th pick and better than Tyreke.

  • With our roster, Deng more important than Noah in beating Heat.

    Several of those trades are terrible. Certainly the ones that have guys with 2 year contracts coming back.

    I'd trade either Noah or Deng for Barnes, Beal, Kid-Gilchrist and some salary cap relief. Beyond that, way too much of a crapshoot.

  • In reply to JayJohnstone:

    @JayJohnstone - In what world is Deng more important than Noah?

    Because when Lebron drops 30+ on Deng, having Noah manning the rim is not important?

    Or do you think if Lebron dropped 30+ on Ronnie Brewer and Jimmy Butler, having Noah protecting the rim is more important?

  • I don't think Boozer, Deng or Noah add their contracts value for us if we were building a team designed to beat the heat. Omer gives them a really tough time because he is the guy that alters and stuffs drives to the rim which the Heat live on. Noah is more of a on the ball defender which is huge with switching but isn't as disruptive against a driving team as Asik IMO.

    If you can get into the top ten with Deng I would do it. If you could net a second top ten by trading Noah as well I would do that too. Now is your only realistic chance to go through a rebuild without completely pissing off your star since he won't be playing much or at 100% next season.

    You're right though with our depth and age of 2/5 of our starters this season was by far the strongest this group is going to be. Keeping the "core" together won't get it done going forward. IMO the Bulls front office strength is in the scouting dept outside of gambling on a few athletic freaks they draft very well so I would like to see them gamble a bit by trying to move into the top ten and loading up on early second rounders if they can buy them.

  • In reply to Chad:

    @Chad - I completely disagree about your comparison between Asik being more valuable than Noah against the Heat. Noah most closely resembles KG (on the defensive end) with his defense, help defense, switch defense, and ability to defend multiple positions. Both Lebron and Wade had a hard time (they're Superstars, they got their points, but their FG% was below their average).

    If you trade Deng, you can get comparable players (especially on defense) like Brewer and Jimmy Butler. If you trade Noah, what comparable players can the Bulls get, Robin lopez? Omer Asik cannot do what Noah does for this defense.

    I think the MAIN problem the fans are finally realizing is, because of Boozer's contract (whether he's a decent/good player or not isn't the debate)...because of his contract eating up our payroll, Noah or Deng will eventually be traded.

  • In reply to YouBlewwIt:

    I don't think Noah resembles KG at all maybe you could make the heart/desire comparison but that would be it. I wasn't saying the guy sucks my point was if you are designing a team to stop the Heat you probably want a Rim protector at Center IMO. Just making the case that if we could move Noah for a high draft pick it wouldn't be a devastating loss assuming you don't bomb the pick. Especially since Noah has had zero playoff contribution the last two seasons.

  • In reply to Chad:

    Why stop at Deng and Noah, trade everybody but Rose, Butler (and Bozo) for draft picks.

    We end up with 6-8 total picks spread throughout the draft(I'd say 4 lottery, 4 late first/early second), saving us a ton of money, guaranteeing the most slots at the rookie sophomore game as well as a guaranteed top 4 pick in next years draft.

    We have to take advantage of this once in a lifetime opportunity with all the guaranteed superstars in this the greatest draft in the history of drafts.

    Trading Deng now, is perfectly logical as Doug presents the case today, and as I have been saying forever.

    However, we will still have to be some combination of good and lucky to come out ahead in the deal. Taking that same chance with Noah, Asik and Taj isn't as prudent as it is with Deng.

  • In reply to BigWay:

    I am with ya although I would try and keep Taj and Omer too as they won't return their real values. I have been on the trade Deng bandwagon since they flinched at the KG, Kobe and Dwight deals. I like him but Deng is way overpaid and overrated. Two years ago he was considered untradeable by many now he can get you a lottery pick all while being injured and putting up the same stats??? You would be crazy not to trade him for a lottery pick.

    Word is Charlotte pick at #2 is for sale and they are looking for a young stud paper mentioned Rudy Gay, James Harden types. I say why not Noah!

  • In reply to Chad:

    I think you are wrong in your comparisons simply because they Both are disruptive in different ways . Noah is an active energy big, yes. He also has a skillset that sets up the offense in the highpost , if he is able to garner any courage from his time with Kareem this summer it will be fantastic.

    Noah shows versatilaty that Omer needs more developement on. Freethrows , movement without the ball and just plain goddamn stamina. I wouldnt want to part with either mind you. But Noah can't be overlooked on contributions on both sides pf the floor.

    I would actually pair them together and let them play to strengths ( if one or the other has more offense, of course ).

  • I love the idea of trading deng for Francisco Garcia. If you can get that 5th pick then absolutely you do that. Not even thinking twice. He (Garcia) replaces brewer.

  • I understand that thinks look bad at this point but why is everyone so willing to blow this team up? If Rose comes back healthy (this is the key to everything if he doesn't come back close to 100% we are a .500 team) the Bulls are one of the best teams in the league. The Heat are being overrated, Indy and Boston could have beaten them and if the officiating wasn't terrible last night at the end of the game there is a great chance they are down 2-0 right now, they simply are not as good as people like to think. The Heat are a poorly constructed team with overlapping skills and there 2nd option is obviously declining. Yes, we do need a serviceable 2 that can handle the ball but people like that are available, heck starting Kirk at the 2 would be an upgrade as he plays good defense, can handle the ball and can occasionally knock down the 3.

  • In reply to do53:

    Indy and Boston couldn't beat them despite Chris Bosh not playing at all against Indy after game 1 and barely playing against boston.

  • In reply to do53:

    1) Because we know this is Jerry Reinsdorf, and he will be looking to save money.

    2) And even if everybody came back, the Bulls as comprised wouldn't have been the favorites (or even given a 50-50 shot) of being the Heat (and eventual Thunder).

    So if the best the Bulls team, completely healthy is ...'they have a chance', that's probably not good enough.

  • You're right Doug. But everything you said about luol deng has to be applied with Noah too. Trading Noah would also help us. It would be very interesting to trade a package of Noad+Deng for the third pick. We would end up with a great rookie and a possibility to sign a very good free agent or Hinrich.

  • In reply to deewaves:

    MKG or Bradley Beal would be nice the cost seems a tad steep unless you are only getting one year contracts back. Amnesty Boozer too either this year or next and you could be in the market for a free agent star wingman next offseason. That with Taj and Omer would be a nice looking group maybe not the greatest depth but playoffs is all about the starters anyway.

  • In reply to deewaves:

    Because you're more likely to find players who can replace Deng (Brewer/Butler on defensive end).

    Who is going to replace Noah? Chandler just got a 4yr $60mil deal. DeAndre Jordan just got 4yrs $40mil. I have no doubts JaVale McGee will get 4yrs and at least $40mil.

    That's also why there's only 1 Center in the top-5 (Drummond) and consensus thoughts on him is he MIGHT be good.

  • In reply to YouBlewwIt:

    Asik would replace Noah very well. you people overrates Noah too much. Remember last season when Noah got injured in december, everybody was seeing Bulls won't survive without him, but they went very well, even better just by putting the old Big sexy in the middle. If Kurt Thomas can do Noah's job then a lot of centers can.
    When they say it lacks of good players at center postion, they talk about scoring centers like Howard and Bynum, centers who can average 20 ppg. There is a lot centers who can defend and rebound like Noah does. By the away Andre Drummond is precious because he will be among the rare scoring centers of this league.

  • In reply to deewaves:

    Deewaves you sound ignorant when you say that replacing Noah is easy. Noah may not have a large array of offensive skills but there are next to none that can 1. pass like he can
    2. handle the ball like he does 3. have the ability to guard/switch and defend well many different positions 4. play with as much energy and heart as him. He would be missed a lot.

  • In reply to UnstopaBull:

    but where did everything you named lead us ? Why did Thibs bench him the 4th quarter of the ECF ? The real skills of Noah is his rebounding and his defense. Asik isn't as good as Noah when its come to rebound but he would replace him pretty well.

  • In reply to deewaves:

    No trading Noah and Deng is not the same thing, they have completely different roles on the team. Deng is supposed to be our second(or maybe 3rd) go to scorer, a role which he is simply not suited for.

    Noah plays his role perfectly and uniquely and he makes less than Deng. Deng has clearly hit his ceiling as a player, statistically he is already regressing.

    There is absolutely no consensus on who the second best player in this draft is, with 5 guys being discussed as interchangeable at picks 2-6, so who is this great rookie that we are giving up 40% of our starting lineup for. We need to get 2 for one, not give 2 for one, or should I say 2 for 50/50 when cashing in our established chips.

    With the exception of Barnes all of the top guys are undersized for their positions, i.e. MKG is under 6'6" making him a small small forward, thus a shooting guard who right now can't shoot.

    The draft is almost always a crapshoot, trading Deng right now is worth a shot as his time with the Bulls has come and gone, the same cannot be said for Noah, Asik or Taj at this time.

    Finally, other than Rose's health, clearing cap space so that we can sign Kirk Hinrich has to be our top priority, isn't that obvious to everyone.

  • In reply to BigWay:

    you made a lot points. But I'd rather take a risk of drafting a flop than keeping this roster. Because at the end of day, this roster will always disapointed in playoffs after a great season, then why continue with that ? It is better trying to grab a talent in this draft.

    If we get a pick in the top 5, in my mind Drummond is the guy to pick. That guy is only 18 but he's already huskier than Howard (130 Kg vs 120Kg). Plus he'll get bigger and more muscular with time. He is a good ball handler and passer for his size. Imo, he is the future shaq.

    As for MKG, I agree with you, I don't trust him. He is just like Ronnie Brewer, strong, tough, good rebounder and defender but doesn't have a reliable shoot and only score in paint (exactly like Brewer). He spends his time in key like big men. He is hyped because he played on a championship team. The same for Brad Beal. Numbers don't lie : those two players are 75% at the line. It's too poor for SGs.

    If the bulls don't move up in the draft, they should pick up John Jenkins (85% FT) with their 29th pick. To me, he is better than MKG and Brad Beal.

  • For those who still thinks healthy bulls could have beaten the Heat. Do you really think adding a player to a team which can't beat the 8th seed is enough to beat the Heat ? Rose is great but he isn't superman.

  • Very insightful. The Bulls DO NOT have to be a bad team next year or in subsequent years nor do they necessarily need to go into the luxury tax to do so. The key to doing so is to trade their way to a team that quite frankly could be even better than the current one and is at least competitive even if Rose must miss the next season. The most frustrating thing as a Bulls fan is that the team seems unable to connect the dots to do so.

  • I'd definitely try to get something done with Sacramento or Golden State. The Warriors just traded for Bogut who's had his fair share of injuries over the years and I think the idea of a core of Curry/Thompson/Deng/Bogut could be intriguing to them. I'd gladly take Salmons or Garcia from the Kings for a year or two too, if they offer. Those two are still some solid players.

  • I would amnesty Boozer before I'd dump Deng for a mid-lottery pick. I wouldn't move Deng for less than a top 5 pick, or as part of a Boozer package that brings back some nice young talent. Watching those two teams play again, I'm not so sure this Bulls team couldn't compete with them if really healthy. The Bulls could very easily make a deep run from a low seed next year. And who's to say the rail thin KD doesn't get hurt next year. Westbrook is one bad drive from twisting his knee or ankle. And Ibaka and Harden's contract situation could poison that team, too. DWade looks like he is ready to begin a pretty steep decline. If his knee is to the point to where he can't get by anybody, is he going to scare anybody with his step-back 20 footers? It's not like he gets back on defense now. I don't see the Heat getting better next year. The Pacers are the only team right now that seem to be on an upswing that are any good. And that is practically a home series anyway.

    I could see the Bulls dumping/trading Watson and Brewer and picking up one point guard and still at least .500 if not a little higher next spring when Deng and Rose come back. Anything less than a top 5 pick and you are merely trading Deng for another, younger version of the same thing, and a guy that you have to wait 3-5 years to really have any kind of impact. That doesn't make any sense if you haven't already moved Boozer. Because the last thing we want is the bulls to turn into the Atlanta Hawks, a perennial 3-4 seeds that occasionally disappoints and flames out in the first round. They are better than that now.

  • In reply to bullshooter:

    I think you make a good point about Boozer. Unless you get a top 5 for Deng, it would be like they are half rebuilding and half going for it if Boozer is still there. That sounds like the Hawks to me. Overall this sounds very depressing. It sounds like all that teams will be doing is get a star and a bunch of draft picks and in two to three years, if you have not won yet, trade those draft picks for more draft picks. It sounds like there will be no building a team anymore. It will be all about what's going on in college where they are trying to win with teams of freshmen.
    I do feel like people are overreacting a little to how to build a team buy using the Thunder model. The reason it works so well for them is because Durant is so great. He is Reggie Miller in a seven foot body. He is unguardable. If you don't have a player like that on that team, the Thunder are no where near as impressive.

  • In reply to bullshooter:

    You really think Bulls have a shot at a deep run next season??? You don't make a move and just use the one pick we have likely on a swingman maybe PG. Korver and Brewer are gone since we can't afford them. That leaves you with only Jimmy Butler and a late first round rookie backing up Loul Deng who is likely to miss a quarter of the season and a ultra fragile and year older Rip Hamilton.

    Rose isn't 100% and likely won't have the explosion to blow past defenders to get to the rim at will. You still have everyone double teaming Rose at the end of games who is going to score? RIP? Odds he endures a deep playoff run are slim at best. Deng isn't that guy neither is Boozer and Noah shies away from wide open jumpers. Bulls are no threat next season... Bulls even if Rose is a 100% are a weaker team by losing Kyle, Ronnie and maybe CJ. That is not even mentioning that Boozer likely won't be able to repeat the year he had and RIP is getting really old and has essentially no backup.

    You're dreaming if you think the Bulls can contend next season as is. They are proving to be the paper tigers of the east. They were ousted by an eight seed that minus Rose they should have still beaten if they were any kind of contender.

  • In reply to Chad:

    "They were ousted by an eight seed that minus Rose they should have still beaten if they were any kind of contender."

    Well, it was a lot more than just Rose, bad as that was. CJ was hurt, Deng was really hurt, and Korver got hurt. But the loss of Noah was the killer. Even so, the Bulls were a play or a ref's call from going to game 7.

    However, I basically agree with the rest of your points. Winning the first series against an 8 is not the same as winning the ECF. And they would have needed almost everyone to achieve that.

    So,
    1) Load up on picks by trading Deng and however else they can;
    And,
    2) Try to get D Williams. Do a sales job. Williams and Rose is the best backcourt in the NBA. Then if they can get D Howard, who some say wants to play with Williams, they win multiple titles. If not, when Mirotic comes over in 2014/15, they could win it all. This is doable, but they will need to sell Williams first.

  • In reply to bullshooter:

    Do you really think adding a player to a team which can't beat the 8th seed is enough to beat the Heat ? Rose is great but he isn't God.

  • THANK YOU DOUG for actually listing the realistic trade scenarios (other than that SAC trade) for Deng. People have been getting delusional.

    People were thinking they were going to get the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th pick for Deng? They were thinking they could get Tyreke and the 5th pick for Deng? They thought they would only trade Deng if they could get a better player than him?

    Regarding the Bulls, it's more like they have a Big 1 + Medium 3. But I agree with your overall theme here. If the Lakers and Cuban are teams trying to shed salary because of the new Tax rules, Reinsdorf will definitely try to do the same.

    With the injuries to Rose and Deng, next year is most likely not going to be a title-contending year and it's better to trade off pieces (get younger and cheaper) and invest in prospects from a draft that is considered very deep.

    Personally, I would make the Calderon+8th Pick trade. That sures the Bulls of an actual starting caliber PG to start for us while Rose is out, and the 8th pick can be used to grab somebody like Waiters or Lamb (if Barnes is off the table).

    I would then look to trade Asik for POR's 11th and Kurt Thomas (who I suspect they're looking to dump anyway, Bulls can throw in Korver, Brewer, or Watson if need be). They will most likely be looking at a big man (Leonard or Zeller), and if they're looking to win now, Asik is more NBA ready than these 2 prospects would be.

    Then the Bulls can draft Leonard or Zeller (preference on Leonard) and have Kurt Thomas as the veteran leader to help him along the way.

    C. Noah $11.3 (Leonard $1.8, Kurt $1.4)
    PF. Boozer $15 (Taj $2.2)
    SF. Brewer $4.4 (Butler $1.1)
    SG. Rip $5 (Waiters/Lamb $2.1)
    PG. Rose $15.5 (Calderon $10.6, JL3 $1)

    $71.4mil in 2012-13 Payroll

    In 2013-14, with Calderon, Kurt, Rip, and Brewer all expiring, minus Taj's extension, the Bulls would have a payroll of $48.4mil.

  • In reply to YouBlewwIt:

    While not unreasonable(especially in Deng's case) both of these moves make the Bulls less competitive this season, and each move independently has less than a 50/50 chance to make the Bulls better in the long run, i.e. what are the odds that the 8th pick is ever better than Deng is now, or that the 11th pick is better than what Asik will be over the next few years as he enters his prime.

    If Portland wants to talk about both of their picks then Asik or even Noah might be on the table, but one for one is just a bird in the hand type trade.

    Taking the risk on Deng is more reasonable because of his salary to performance ratio, as well as where he is in his career arc, somewhere just past his peak.

  • In reply to YouBlewwIt:

    YBI: The new NBA collective bargaining agreement will not permit the Bulls to trade Asik until he has signed a formal contract...translated no draft day trades of the Turkish wonder. With these limiting circumstances, it amplifies the need to package Deng with a combination of expiring contracts for the 5th pick. Positively, Gar/Pax would be able to make an in-season trade involving Omer for a proven NBA shooting guard.

    At the 29th pick, we should be able to select John Jenkins of Vanderbilt to replace Korver's ability to hit the 3 + spread the floor. I would attempt to trade into the 2nd round too.......Darrius Johnson-Odom of Marquette has a skill set quite similar to Darren Collison of the pacers. DJ will develop into a solid NBA back up point guard. End sum gain: the bulls have options and need to take decisive action on draft day! CG

  • In reply to cgiebelh:

    Asik can be S&T'd, so while difficult, he could still be moved on or before draft day, not that I necessarily want to. Probably the only trade that I would consider for Asik would be for both Portlands picks(6&11) or maybe both Houston picks(14&16) and Kyle lowry.

    I am with you on the second round picks, we should see if we can use the contract options on Korver, Brewer and Watson to pick up those picks, preferably early.

    With 4 late picks, we might have a chance to find another Taj Gibson.

  • In reply to YouBlewwIt:

    "With the injuries to Rose and Deng, next year is most likely not going to be a title-contending year and it's better to trade off pieces (get younger and cheaper) and invest in prospects from a draft that is considered very deep."

    That's exactly what I'm about. However, I don't like Calderon at all. He is such a bad defender. He is isn't good at all. I live in canada and I'm used to watch Raptors game : Calderon isn't a good PG, Even Jarret Jack runned the team better than him when he was a raptor. Deng for 8th pick+ Bayless seems better.

    Like you said, dealing Deng isn't going to get us a top 5 pick, that's I prefer dealing Noah. He is more valuable. Noah for the 5th pick sounds good to me.

  • "I came, I saw, I came"(Julius Caesar exiting an adult theater).

    Sorry, bad joke, but the point is while everybody has their own urgent agenda as a "serious" de facto Bulls G.M., it's kind of silly when you think about it. We have no control whatsoever over the machinations of a historically cheap and conservative sports franchise known as the Chicago Bulls.

    It should be an exciting and fun time really(until Jerry R..aka Dad quashes his boys Gar/Pax's grand schemes). Yet we as invested fans are speculating at a time that is even more difficult then usual to decipher economic realities and realistic deals in trades and acquiring draft picks etc. This new, in essence, hard cap changes everything. Keeping an open mind to other peoples ideas and proposals(no matter how dumb - I'm kidding) only means its more likely to think through the confusion, and formulate a solid plan of action. Maybe even a consensus develops? Alright maybe pin it down to two main camps or plans. What about a contest, and Doug promotes the three most viable camps or general strategies and then we vote? Ok, that's just gay(sorry).

    Doug himself has offered some concrete trade proposals(acquiring picks for Deng) as many were requesting. Thanks by the way. And the honest view, for many, that the Bulls have a ways to go offensively to contend for an NBA Championship.

    I like some of the ideas I'm hearing. Several people make the point that while this is a deep draft in talent, there aren't after Davis really any sure fire all-star type prospects. Yet since 2005 look, and tell me how many players were? Blake Griffin, Derrick Rose maybe your No.1s have that expectation, but who else? Wade, Chris Paul etc. some people might have envisioned them as perennial all-star talents.on draft night, but how many really?.

    The point is, when you have what is considered a deeply talented draft, you probably at least have a much better chance then usual of hitting on a nice prize if not the jackpot. And what better time then when you need an influx of cheaper talent. The price you pay is most guys who will pan out are not NBA ready good players. Most will take two to four years and sometimes five. Again, with Derrick out essentially for a year that gives you time to develop without losing opportunities.

    Say on the one hand you think, 'hey, we need a high as possible lottery pick as we can get as the odds increase incredibly for a star or near so talent.' Or you can say, 'hey, realistically even taking back a sizable "bad contract" as Doug suggests, an injured Deng may not get you that far. So what about two middle teens picks as with a Houston? In a normal year those might be late lottery guys no?

    Then you dump all the middling guys Brewer, C.J., and out of necessity Korver. Maybe you even cash in a no future guy like Hamilton. Hey, with his pedigree you might be surprised what he can still get you. Then with those guys who are expirings and options you pick up one or two early 20's picks. If you've found some gold in a clearer, unmuddied stream in a deep draft, you've possibly added two solid players who can score in years two and three. Even if only one pans out immediately, with wise choices even the other picks may still be intruiging trading chips to recycle for other future value.

    Personally, I doubt the Bulls go with acquiring multiple picks. Probably Deng for a top 5-8 or maybe except a Houston two late lottos/mid teens package(with Kyle Lowry, yes). Even so then you've shed salary, and upgraded with two late lottery picks and more in a normal year. We'll see what happens. Again, if you pick the wrong guys then all is for nought. Except then you still have room to resign your defensive core in Taj and Omer. A worthwhile silver lining.

    My latest favorites list(somewhat ripping off from others and upon further consideration) Bradley Beal, Damian Lillard, Meyers Leonard, Terrence Ross, Arnett Moultrie, Moe Harkless, Andrew Nicholson, Doron Lamb, Marcus Denmon, and Darius Johnson-Ododm. That's a lot of guys but that's my personal finals list.

    Draft junkie Fantasy Bulls Draft 2012(based on projected availability) Sacto deal No. 5 Damian Lillard or Bradley Beal. New Orleans deal No. 10 Meyers Leoanrd or Terrence Ross. Houston deal No. 14 Arnett Moultrie and No. 16 Moe Harkless. Two early 20's pick ups No. 20 Andrew Nicholson and No. 22 Doron Lamb.

    Note: If the Bulls stand pat at No. 29 or make some lame ass deal, then I do renounce Satan(aka Jerry R.) and all his works.

  • In reply to RoadWarrior:

    I would do the Houston deal(14&16 plus Lowry) for Deng without losing any sleep. I would then go with Ross and Harkless.

    Then if you want to go draft crazy, offer Lowry and Asik to Portland for 6 & 11. They are said to be looking for a point guard and a defensive stud at center. Portland clearly wins that trade on draft day.

    Would Waiters, Lamb or Rivers and Meyers Leonard be better than Lowry and Asik, certainly not this season. In the long run less than a 50/50 chance.

    But we would be massively younger and cheaper when Rose comes back at full strength in 2013, especially with another lottery pick next summer.

    While I would greatly miss Asik, I would be irrationally excited if something like this happened in the next 2 weeks.

  • In reply to BigWay:

    There is no chance HOU gives up their 14th and 16th picks for Omer Asik.

    HOU wanted to trade Courtney Lee for him, they're definitely not giving up 2 picks for him.

    And then you want to throw in Lowry as well?

    Good luck with with that phone call man.

  • In reply to YouBlewwIt:

    Better adjust your glasses, it was Deng for Houstons picks and lowry, then lowry and Asik to Portland for their 2 picks.

    and Houston, who has been desperate for a bigman forever would trade those 2 picks for Asik in less than a heartbeat. They tried to steal Asik from us for Lee in Asiks rookie season, and it didn't work, what are the 14th &16th picks if not just a couple of shots at finding a guy like Courtney Lee.

    As is the case with most people, you highly overvalue draft picks, especially middling ones over players who have already proven that they can play in the league.

  • Hornets is interesting maybe Ariza and Austin Rivers.

    Rose
    RIvers
    Ariza
    Boozer
    Noah

    I like it.

  • In reply to souleater7:

    Rivers ?? you're talking about the guy who is 65% at the free throws line ? a SG who can't shoot ?

  • In reply to deewaves:

    Ok... I really haven't scouted college games but how about the best player or SG available at #10?

  • In reply to deewaves:

    Rivers is a penetrating combo guard, not a pure shooting guard, if you want a pure shooting guard, the only guy who really fits the bill in every way (including size, 6'6" in socks) is Terrance Ross, who would be a near perfect fit next to Rose.

    At this point, I would be happy trading Deng in for Ross and whatever contract we have to take back(Ariza, Calderon, Wright, etc.)

  • This sucks. I just spent a long time writting out a comment only to have the site tell me I'm posting to quickly.
    Good joke Roadwarrior and good post.

  • In reply to PaBullfan:

    Hey, someone told me/us if you right click and hit the refresh tab it will show you retry, you might have to hit retry several times, but finaly it will put your post through i.e you won't lose it.

  • In reply to PaBullfan:

    Yeah, I think all of us at some point in time has had that happened to us.

    I learned my lesson and then highlighted everything and copied it, so in case I get that message, I can repost it after I got back to this main board.

    But thanks to Roadwarrior's tip, we should be able to get our posts across without even having to do that.

  • Just want to say, the video scouting reports on Draft Express are great!!! I recomend watching them. Drummond looks horrible in it (makes Asik look like Mark Price from the line), while I think I have fallen in love with Damian Lillard. Could he play next to Rose in a small backcourt? I think all of his weaknesses can be turned around by good coaching. And again, in those videos, I like what I see from Perry Jones III. If he can move to SF, I think he could have an impact. Not as a starter, maybe, but a guy in the rotation that the defense doesn't know how to defend.

  • wtf?

  • Various quotes from various sources on the net

    Put 2 and 2 together. Maybe

    "On top of that, the Bulls own the No. 29 pick in the draft. Their goal, some will tell you, is to move up, perhaps even into the lottery.

    In order for that to happen the Bulls will have to offer a player (or players), and probably include their first-rounder. They’re said to have their eyes on guards such as Connecticut’s Jeremy Lamb, Syracuse’s Dion Waiters or Duke’s Austin Rivers."
    and
    "The Blazers are open to trading the Nos. 6 & 11 picks, according to sources familiar with the team’s plans. New general manager Neil Olshey also hinted as much in an interview with The Oregonian. “What we know today is that we have picks six and 11,” Olshey said. “What we don't know is what six and 11 will become: Do they become young players? Do they become trade assets? Right now, they are just tools.” FOXSportsOhio"

    To me those 3 guys represent a solution to the Bulls greatest need, someone(else, besides Rose)who can penetrate, get to the rim at will, and breakdown defenses to create shots for both himself and the rest of the team.

    I am not at all sure which of those three are the best option, my sense is that Rivers is Mike Bibby but I don't have a sense of who the other two guys are.

    I would include Tony Wroten as a guy who could provide the same abilities that might be available in the 20's or even our pick at 29. He Wroten has been compared to Rajon Rondo coming out, and his upside is said to be Gary Payton, he is only 19 so he would have to be worth the risk at 29 if he fell.

    In fact right now if he falls Wroten is my pick at 29, if he isn't there, I would go with Miles Plumlee, this years taller and bigger Taj Gibson(my predraft pick that year by the way)

    Given the uncertainties of the draft I would love to get 2 of those guys(Lamb, Waiters or Rivers) or one of them and Terrance Ross, which is why we should be talking to Portland about getting both their picks. However, I doubt we can get them without Noah or Asik being in the deal.

    Never the less there is more evidence everyday that starting with at least pick 5 there are multiple lottery picks available, and maybe the Bulls have finally reached the point where they no that they are not good enough to simply wait for Rose to come back healthy in 2013.

  • Listening to Sam Smith on the Score he said that it would have to be a team that could wait for Deng and his wrist injury and that the only real team would be the Kings. Because Deng has to pass his trade physical. They need a SF and a mature player. They have "goof balls.''

    I don't know if he was hinting to a trade but he mentioned that the Bulls could then use the money from unloading Deng on a "legit PG" like Nash, Kid, Miller.

    So then the Bulls could afford Nash? They could pay him a nice chunk of change and offer a contending team.

    You could have like....

    Nash/ JL3
    Rip/ Salmons
    Barnes/ Butler
    Boozer/ Taj
    Noah/ Omer

  • In reply to souleater7:

    I've stopped reading/listening to Sam Smith for a while now. At this point, he's just an old senile curmudgeon who likes to think HIS way is the only way.

    In that latest article/mailbag, a reader asks him about ESPN's Noah ...for... Tyreke+5th trade. He goes to insult them talking about how they have no credibility for proposing such a trade (which implies his trade with Deng for Tyreke+5th is better).

    He then goes on to the claim that SAC doesn't need Noah because they have Cousins there (who's really a PF that can play C). Then he compares Noah to Jason Thompson, saying if they got Noah, he would just be a reserve. LOL.

    And then he goes on to try to persuade us SAC would want Deng because they need a SF. Umm...hello, John Salmons plays SF for them. There has also been talk of moving Tyreke to SF to get him off from handling the ball.

    All in all, Sam likes to criticize other people for their suggestions, proposals, trade ideas as having to relevance or credibility, but he goes on everyday fabricating complete rumors up himself.

    The Bulls would be lucky to get Tyreke OR the 5th Pick for Deng, and even then, expect to take back a 'bad contract' like Salmons or Garcia.

  • In reply to YouBlewwIt:

    Well, according to you we would be lucky to get Salmons for Deng, since Sacto doesn't have a great need for a SF because they already have him.

    I mostly agree with your take on SSS, but the Kings have been desperately searching for a small forward for years now, and will jump for joy if Barnes falls to them.

    If the Bulls got the 5th pick, I'd be terrified that they would take Kwame Curry Drummond.

  • I think Barnes, if we somehow get to No. 5 i.e lottery through a Deng trade would be the "safe" pick. Most think his ceiling though is Luol Deng 2.0/younger version. Which at a hellatiously lower salary is quite an accomplisment.

    Still, you get that high of a pick in a loaded draft, I think some feel you shoot for the stars aka best player/talent available(including a character guy/competitor). Bradley Beal and Damian Lillard would be those guys. Jeremy Lamb people are finally catching on as he yawns through prospect/draft interviews that he is truly an apathetic person who you don't want on your ballclub. It's a shame because he is talented as hell and can shoot.

    If we get any of Beal, Lillard, Ross, or Harkless I'm going to be thinking we got it right as in getting a guy who will be a scorer in the next two or three years in the NBA, and also a competitor aka solid guy. Honorable mention as far as talent(and probably decent guys if not hellatious competitors) are Meyers Leonard, Arnett Moultrie, and Andrew Nicholson. Doron Lamb just below that group - and he is a competitor no doubt.

    Perhaps the most notable or astounding part of this draft confirming the label of "Deep" will be the late first and early second round. Guys like D.J.O(Darius Johnson-Odom), John Jenkins, Jeff Taylor, Marcus Denmon, Orlando Johnson, and possibly Will Barton. There are going to be some guys there who will be good rotation players in the league for a few years, some more.

    If we did go cheap, and pick up late firsts/early seconds I got D.J.O and Marcus Denmon with an honorable mention to Orlando Johnson. Barton has real talent like Harkless in the half court, but he comes off as a little flighty, not risking it.

  • In reply to RoadWarrior:

    Side note: if you haven't checked out the highlight mix of Andrew Nicholson(the one with Bonnie's/St.Bonaventure)logo on it, you should. You can't draft on highlight mixs, but his dude offensively is the shit. He's too thin to capitalize on his low post treasure trove of moves/talent at this point. But he's going to be a rich man's version of JuJuan Johnson out of Purdue whom I think will eventually find some success/rotation time in the league.

    And Nicholson's numbers have NBA translation written all over them prolific early on with ridiculous field goal percentages not from put backs, seals, or cuts off the ball but from SKILL. He didn't start playing organized basketball until his JUNIOR YEAR of HIGH SCHOOL. Junior year in high school. He drove his team to the NCAA tourney from a mid major. I love this kid.

  • Trading noah or deng is not supposed to be our main issue. Our main issue is that 6'9 meat bag boozer. We have to find any team that willing to trade for him. Whatever we want to do with our roster we have to start from boozer. Do you all understand !!!!!

  • In reply to CoolWind:

    If the Bulls won't amnesty or can't trade Boozer then I think a sixth man role would be a good move for him. I know he's making a shit ton of money but I think come playoffs that would be the best. I've been saying this for awhile now and I think it's time the Bulls finally move him to the bench and start Taj.

  • In reply to CoolWind:

    I don't think you understand...NO ONE WANTS BOOZER!!! And the Bulls management aren't aggressive enough to try and get rid of him by either trade or amnesty so Deng, Noah or other players in that order besides Rose have to be considered to be traded. I believe if some team would call the Bulls and offered them a descent trade for Boozer the Bulls would take it in a heart beat and Reinsdorf won't give this guy a boat load of money to go away so the Bulls are probably stuck with Boozer for at least another year if a trade doesn't present itself.

  • I'm really to the point where I think I'll be kinda disappointed if they don't trade Deng now.

  • You guys are missing one important point here- the Bulls will be in full-out tank mode this season. They will be in Max Cap Space mode for next summer and/or the following summer (2014). This is the big chance the Bulls have to add a superstart to Rose, without he and Deng this season, it will be easy enough to lose games without obviously tanking. If Deng can be moved for a lottery pick this summer, you take it, and you add that to next summer's top-5 pick and Noah and Mirotic... (my laptop died this week but I'll have a full blog written with my explanation tomorrow)

  • This is insanity. You don't bet your future on lottery picks unless they are virtually guaranteed to become SOLID NBA starters. Deng may be overpaid, but he is an established, GOOD player. Top 10 at his position. You trade Deng ONLY for another proven NBA player. Give me ONE example of a team who traded a borderline ALL Star FOR A DRAFT PICK. Deng isn't an all star by any means, but he is solidly in that second tier of borderline ALL Star players. I'm fine with trading Deng, but you do it when his value is highest = with one year left on his contract, when he ISN'T about to go play in the olympics with a question mark injury. If we didn't have Derrick Rose, and the best trio of interior rebounders/defenders in the league(Noah, Taj, Omer), I MIGHT consider this as an option. Everyone is going to have to play by the same rules. Certain teams; Lakers, Mavs, Celtics, will finally be regulated by the cap. Others: Thunder, Heat, will either see their power 3/4 either broken up, or surrounded by Special Olympic talent in the coming years. The Bulls are hardly in a crap situation. The Thunder literally cannot keep their current 4 stars together. The Heat will have to deal with D-Wade's rapid deterioration, and an even weaker supporting cast than currently constructed. The Bulls best player isn't even at the beginning of his prime, Noah, Taj, Omer, and Deng all have half a decade left in their primes with the possible exception of Deng. Boozer can be amnestied eventually, but in the mean time, at least produces something offensively. We have Charlotte's pick, which will continue to grow in value. We have Mitrocic over the horizon, have you seen him play? He is without a doubt ready to start in the NBA, RIGHT NOW, and looks like a future all star. Sure, trade away Deng for a pick that MIGHT turn out(a pick from 5-10 has about a 30% chance of producing a guy of Deng's talent, and thats in 3-4 years). Lets ship off Noah while were at it, for another 30% shot in the dark. Noah and Deng aren't the best players in the world, but there is a 100% chance that they will be solid NBA starters the next half decade. I love your analysis Doug, but there is a reason NBA GM's would never pull the trigger on 90% of the offseason moves you suggest, and 98% of the moves that the clowns above me suggest. They aren't logical, they aren't realistic, and they won't work. (disclaimer I know you never suggested we move Noah, that was in response to suggestions made by others). We stick with what we got, amnesty Boozer if JR will man up, spend that cash on what we can get, and possibly trade Deng in his final year for a solid young piece. If a blockbuster move can be made, and it makes sense, we make it, but for a proven NBA player.

  • In reply to Chicagosportsguru:

    There are no sure things in the lottery never have been. Oden was thought to be a once in a generation center and he has basically been useless his entire career due to constant injuries. The reason most want to move Deng is his salary. You pay a guy like a star player and he is a role playing third option that is going to seriously limit your teams ceiling. That is why you move Deng if you can get into the mid lottery. Injured players can be traded and Deng is never going to be worth more than a mid lottery pick so if you can get it you do it.

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