I discuss the NBA Finals matchup and why the Bulls might want to pay the luxury tax this season afterall.
Bullsbeat #240 - Retooling
OKC in 6
im not excited about these finals at all, let's get on with next season already.
If I'm Toronto, and I'm looking for a talented veteran presence aka good team influence I'm taking Luol Deng over a Josh Smith. I don't see the Pacers trading Danny Granger right now for the No.8 or higher really. This is a deep, deep draft, but not a sure fire star draft.
The timing is right for a MegaTax and a two year deep pool of cheap, talented players where finding x-factor, immediate impact guys is probably elevated as high as it's going to get. If the Bulls wait until next summer, and amnesty Boozer I could live with that provided they jettison a large contract, and bring in some offensive talent or team balance. Getting Jeremy Lamb or Harrison Barnes at 8 or 10, plus picking up a ealy 20's pick with our No. 29 would be a dynamic move or pooling the 29 pick to move up to late teens early 20's.
I doubt the Bulls pull this off or even attempt to, but Jeremy Lamb and Andrew Nicholson as two highly respected offensive ceiling guys who will produce works for me. Or if it's two guards or wings then Lamb(Barnes) and a Doron Lamb at 20-22.
We know the conservative Bulls don't make moves like this, but this year they just might surprise for reasons of financial expediency long term as much as anything. Though undergoing even one year of tax seems like a stretch for Jerry R.
It woud be so much easier if they just amnestied Boozer now for $4-5 Mil a year over seven years, but I'd be beyond shocked if they did. Next summer is another story. Those deferred seven year payments cut in half by bidding teams pick ups seems doable even for the cheap Bulls.
TOR is looking for that type of SF, unfortunately, they prefer Gay, Josh Smith, and Iggy.
With more and more reports coming out about teams like CLE wanting Barnes, and possible teams trading into a top pick to get Barnes, I just don't see him staying on until 8th.
And even if he somehow gets to to 7th, if GSW doesn't get any offers why wouldn't GSW just take him seeing how they need a SF and he would be the best available on the board?
What fans keep failing to realize is, this is still Jerry Reinsdorf, and I do not believe he is going to pay someone tens of millions to not play for him.
Could the Bulls Amnesty Boozer? Absolutely, but until Reinsdorf does it, I'm not gonna believe it.
He did so with Eddie Robinson and Larry Hughes.
In the end, the idea that we won't pay someone not to play for us is stupid. They are guaranteed the money either way. Once that money is guaranteed it is gone. You then build the best team you can.
If the best team includes Boozer then he plays, if it doesn't then he goes away.
Now is the time for the Bulls to make some moves, Boozer, Deng, Korver, Watson, and Brewer all need to be either traded or let go to free agency. Bulls need more offensive scoring athletic threats that can help and stop the Bulls scoring droughts. Dont know if Jordan would be willing to help out his old team with that number 2 pick for Deng plus other assets but it really would be nice of him to.
I don't think so.
Bulls need more offensive scoring athletic threats that can help and stop the Bulls scoring droughts.
That's what EVERY team who doesn't have it wants. That's why the Bobcats are interested in trading their #2 overall pick for Gay, and why all the teams who covet a top-line SF have Gay at the top of their lists.
Deng is somewhere near the bottom. Taking everything into consideration, costs age, athleticism, etc...I would rank the 'available' SFs like this...
2) Josh Smith
Ummm... That's why I said Deng plus other assets. Deng alone isn't worth the number 2 pick, but Deng and other picks and or players would be worth it to a struggling team like the Bobcats with Jordan maybe wanting to help his former team. Jordan knows that his team needs more than the number 2 pick in the draft for his team to be competitive.
Don't see how the bulls get the #2 pick from Charlotte with a package that stars with Deng. The salaries make no sense.
The Bobcats are under the cap and could likely absorb Dengs entire contract without sending any salary back. They also have a few one year contracts that the Bulls could take back, Maggette being the largest @ nearly $11 million.
The Bulls could offer Deng and the return of Charlottes future #1. Not saying that I want to give up on that pick, but maybe the Bob's would value getting their own pick more than any other team would value that pick.
Not sure that the #2 pick in this draft is really worth that much, or that much more than another pick in the top 10.
I think your list is a little off. Batum is a nice player,but not a proven player like Deng. Iggy can't score like deng, shoot like deng, or defend like Deng. He's a freak athlete, and that is all he has on Deng. Josh Smith isn't a SF, but I think people are to afraid of his knuckleheadedness. And his own team moans when he shoots the ball. Deng is no lower than 2 on that list.
I doubt Josh Smith is ranked that highly simply because he doesn't have the right mental attitude. I also don't see Batum being ranked that highly either.
Even if so, I think the gap between #1 and #6 on your list is very small. What it shows most is that there are a lot of potentially SFs available.
I doubt that Portland would trade Batum for Deng straight up.
In fact, I am not sure that anyone of the guys on that list could be had for Deng in a straight up trade.
I just don't think that Deng has that much value in NBA trade circles, which is why you might be able to get a draft pick for him, but not an already established player.
I could see Deng for Harrison Barnes who is projected between 4 and 7.
Deng for the #10 pick is smoking crack IMHO.
The Deal would be Deng for Ariza and the 10th pick, and I would do that in a heartbeat while still pursuing the 7th and 8th picks from GS and the Raps.
Ariza and Bulter should be able to man the small forward position @ at least the 15 PER level. and Austin Rivers or Terrance Ross with the 10th pick would provide us with considerably more offensive firepower in the backcourt.
You would have to be on drugs or Linus(Thibs) to not do that deal.
Memphis has gone on record saying they won't trade Gay... Josh Smith is a 4, not a 3 as most fans cringe when he shoots anywhere near the perimeter... Batum is going to be matched... That leaves Granger, Deng and Iggy... Granger won't be traded for that pick as mentioned above... To me Deng is more valuable than Iggy because he can stretch the floor, is a great defender, and a pretty good athlete in his own right, Iggy is just a better shot creator/passer... I like most of your ideas Doug, just wary the Bulls do any of them... Now is the time to make moves, but the Bulls are not generally risk takers and there seems to be too much risk for them... Hopefully they see the reward will outweigh the risks in the long run...
The strategy this year is far more complex than last year.
1) It might be smart to amnesty Boozer this year. Some other team will pick up a good chunk of his salary, whereas next year he might get hurt leaving the Bulls to eat it all!
2) However, try to trade Boozer first.
3) Since the Bulls FO seems a lot better at drafting than at picking FAs, trade for some picks.
4) Or, go after D. Williams and D. Howard. Since NJ and Orlando might lose them for nothing, why not deal with the Bulls. Bulls could trade Deng, Noah, Boozer, plus pieces plus picks/Mirotic/Charlotte pick for these 2 allstars.
You can't have a 3 next to Rose who can't dribble. Thats just absurd. Deng must be moved. I think you make any of those moves you mentioned. They have to get younger and more athletic on the wings. I'm sick of watching a two guard who can't shoot and a 3 who can't dribble. It's fucking time to get Rose some damn ballers next to him. Thunder in 7.
Eh, I disagree.
The Bulls need one more ball handler on the perimeter. If they had a SG who was a good on the ball player then it'd be easy to have an off the ball player like Deng.
I'm just playing fantasy but my point is I think the perfect players next to Derrick Rose would be Rudy Gay and James Harden. Imagine...
Thats athletic and has 3 dudes who can get their own lunch.
if they allow Rose to come back early like they did with all the other injures then they deserve to lose. Whats more important fighting for a 6th seed and a second round exit or the rest of derrick rose's career?
Why does everyone think that just because the Heat might lose in their first year or two that everyone should then cheer for them? The knicks have been bad for a decade and I still love it when they lose. I don't like Labron, I don't like Wade, I don't like Riley. I actually like the coach a tiny bit. But I will laugh every time the "greatest team ever" goes down. I'm sick of hearing every year how great Labron's team is going to be, then when they lose, how flawed the team is and how Labron doesn't have enough help. I actually heard people starting to say that when they were down to the Celtics, "he just doesn't have the help right now". Are you kidding me?! I heard on Sunday a guy say, How much of a loser can he be if they lose as underdogs? That is crazy. The fact that they are underdogs to anyone is a joke of how overated this team is. I hope they go down as the biggest joke in sports history.
That said, they probably will now go on to win 7 or 8 just to spite me.
I can't imagine the Heat winning more than three titles and that would be if they won this year. If they lose this year, they'll have hard questions to answer in the off-season about how to rebuild.
If the Heat lose in The Finals and play to their current form, unless the Heat can persuade Kevin Garnett or a healthy Greg Oden to sign for the veteran’s minimum, I would offer DWade and Bosh to Orlando for DHoward and Ryan Anderson. As currently constructed, and with the new luxury tax looming, I just don’t see the Heat getting by the Thunder. In two years, even if OKC is forced to move Harden or Ibaka, Wade will be two years older and even more on the decline.
I enjoyed your idea of buying picks. I feel the place to start would be dallas. They are looking to dump Marion and they hold the #17 pick. a package of Korver and Brewer's non - guaranteed salaries can net Marion and pick 17. If you combine that with the suggested deal (if somehow possible) of deng for calderon and pick 7, the bulls have some real building blocks. Other possible options for buying picks include watson to OKC for their pick 28 and thabo as they want to shed salary to keep harden, maynor and/or Ibaka. If they make those deals and can draft Barnes, Rivers, Jenkins and Jeff Taylor then they have a few wildcards who can truly hit it big and a future core of Rose, Noah, Gibson, Asik, Mirotic, Barnes Rivers. I see this as the optimal situation that alows us to compete this year and be greatly improved next year. With the amnesty clause used on boozer following next season, this works economically as well.
In light of the Rose injury, I also have to agree with your strategy of "buying" mulitiple picks in this years draft using our expiring contracts.
If you buy the theory that we cannot compete for a championship next season, then this year is about restructuring our future salary cap structure and rebuilding a team for the 2013 season and beyond. As you pointed out we have some unique assets this offseason to accomplish that.
While I am not a fan of trading Asik, I bet that you could get 2 picks for him, Houston at 14 & 16, or maybe even Portland at 6 & 11 with the Bulls sending our 29 th pick.
Regardless of how it happens, I would like to see the Bulls end up with Austin Rivers in this draft, as I believe that he would instantly become our second best go to scorer.
I like the Portland line of thinking BigWay...
How about Asik + Deng for Matthews + 6th and 11th picks... We get picks to bolster depth and a solid shooting guard in Wes Matthews, and Portland gets an ideal center to pair with Aldridge, as well as Deng so Batum can be moved to shooting guard...
Or Martin + Lowry +14th and 16th for Deng + Asik + 29th...
I like the Portland trade, especially because it seems feasible.
No way Houston would pull the trigger on that.
We will learn soon enough if Bulls management is taking an aggressive approach to use the 2012-13 “lost season” to remake the roster into Rose Era 2.0. We can only hope so because this current roster has no chance at the NBA Finals going forward with the new CBA, imo. The Bulls lost out on 2010 free agency, its time to admit it and move on.
I expect the Bulls will exploit the non-guaranteed contracts of Korver, Brewer, Watson.. For it was Bulls attorney and VP Irwin Mandel who developed the Bulls New-CBA-Strategy of adding a non-guaranteed year to the 2010 free agency contracts to use in trade with teams who need to immediately dump salary under the new CBA. Mandel’s theory was a non-guaranteed contract would surpass an expiring contract for trade value. Now we will see if this non-guaranteed strategy bears fruit. [Mandel proposed the switch option for 1st round picks in the Eddy Curry - Knicks trade which became No. 9 pick Joakim Noah instead of whomever Bulls would have gotten at No. 23 in 2007.]
So I expect Bulls will aggressively shop the 3 non-guaranteed contracts – this was a strategy devised at the top of Bulls management. NOTE: Rip Hamilton’s 3rd year is also non-guaranteed for the same trade purpose. http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/bulls.jsp
However, the larger roster problem is Bulls have 4 all-star salaries, but only 1 legit all-star. How Bulls manage those 3 ‘eight-figure-non-all-star-salaries’ will determine to a large extent if Rose Era 2.0 has any chance of success. Because Boozer, Deng, Noah are no match for the talent level of LeBron, Wade, Bosh or Durant, Westbrook, Harden.
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