Most people feel there are only two possible outcomes of today's vote: A deal or no deal followed by decertification.
The players should take this deal. It's as good as they are likely to get. The league sent out a memo to players attempting to clarify the offer which breaks it down to be as detailed as you're going to get.
They've also released this video for those who want just the highlights:
There are some inaccuracies. It's silly to think this proposal increases midlevel spending, because of the new exceptions. One of them is just a replacement for a more powerful exception and the other would only be given to a few teams and is at such a low value that it's near meaningless.
All that said, it's a good deal, the players should say yes.
However, given the NBA has gone into a massive media blitz over the weekend trying to turn fan sentiment against the players, I doubt they will even consider it. These are people who are trained everyday to band together against adversity and fight.
The NBA has chosen to ramp up the pressure by calling out agents and building fan sentiment against the players, and in doing so, I believe have guaranteed the players fight back instead.
We're really down to just a few relatively minor system issues here in discussing how punitive the luxury tax will be and what things a tax paying team can't do that a non tax paying team can. Issues which the NBA will say over and over barely matter so the players should just accept them. "Only 9 contracts of this type were handed out all last agreement!" .. "Only 4 teams in the luxury tax did S&Ts anyway!".
Well look, if the issues matter THAT little, then give up on them. Give the players a bone after they came down 2.5% on BRI to get us this close. Understand that you're dealing with an extremely prideful group and give them a side door to get out of this thing with their pride rather than trying to humiliate them in front of the public and hope they decide to quit.
However, since I believe the NBA has backed the players into a corner and put them in a position where they'll fight. I submit option C instead of option decertification.
The reverse pressure scenario:
The players make a final offer back at the owners instead and come up with their own video.
1: We agreed to reduce our take of BRI by three billion dollars
2: We agreed to shorter contract lengths
3: We agreed to a more punitive luxury tax
4: We agreed to smaller raises
5: We agreed to a lesser MLE
6: In the past week we responded to the NBA's offer by reducing our BRI% by 2.5%.
7: There is nothing in this agreement that is better for players than the last agreement [a tiny lie, since shorter RFA period is an improvement, but no where near as big a lie as the NBA trying to pawn off the idea that this agreement will increase mid level spending because there are new exceptions].
We offer these concessions to the owners in our last and final offer before pursuing decertification and hope the owners accept and that we can all enjoy basketball again.
The final sticking points of these issues are so ridiculously small that both sides are moronic for not giving in. My hope for today is that the players overcome the instinctual reaction to say no because they've been pressured. I hope they say yes. They should. It's a good deal.
However, if they say no, my hope is that they make a counter proposal prior to decertifying.
If not we're in for a long lay off and legal battle with the only certainty being that it hurts the fans.