Want a new SG for Christmas? Here are some options

Bulls fans have clamored for a new shooting guard for the past several months as the Bulls frequently fail to get adequate production out of our starting two guard.   Derrick Rose has to do extra work without a second creator, and Keith Bogans isn't spacing the floor any either.  

Here's some thoughts on guys the Bulls could attempt to acquire along with rough ideas of what it'd cost to acquire the player in trade, the short term fit, long term fit, and all of the details.

O.J. Mayo likely costs more than he's worth

Projected cost in trade:
Gibson, 2011 1st, Charlotte 1st, filler

There are several problems with Mayo, starting with the fact that Gibson's probably equally valuable as Mayo to this team and Mayo will have considerable cost on top of throwing Gibson into the trade.  Even the deal outlined above may not be enough.

Mayo has the skills we want in a SG.  He can defend, he can shoot, he can become a secondary creator for our team.   The problem with Mayo is that he's a high volume option who's worse than the volume options we have now.  He's unlikely to be happy with 10 shots a game and more limited ball handling duties.  He's not all that happy with his present role in Memphis which is significantly greater than what we'd offer him here.

On top of that, he's likely going to want 10+ million a year in terms of an extension, and for the role we want him to fill, he's certainly not worth it.  On a team where he's closer to being the man, he might be, but he's probably the 4th or 5th option in our offense here. 

I'd take a chance on Mayo if Gibson could be left out of the package, and we were just offering up picks, but I don't see Memphis jumping up and down cheering a package like that.

J.R. Smith isn't good enough for his baggage and it's hard to figure out an equitable trade

Projected cost:  Cash + 1st + ???? + Nuggets have to trade Anthony

The hard thing about the filler salary with J.R. Smith is that Denver likely won't want to take multiple year salary since Smith is expiring.  As such, it's going to be difficult to find the appropriate filler salary to make a trade work.  If a trade for Smith is made, it's likely going to take a 3rd team who wants to add James Johnson or some of our two year salaries to give Denver an expiring.  

In the end, he's a rental player with a ton of baggage and decent skills.  He'd give us more offense than Brewer, more defense than Korver, and provide a secondary threat as a shooter.  He's playing the same role for Denver that we'd want him to play for us, and while he can win games single handedly, he can lose them too.  He'd be an upgrade in terms of skills as long as his attitude doesn't get in the way.

He's a questionable locker room guy, and he'd likely disrupt team chemistry.  As a one year rental he's worth a try, but what do the Bulls give up to entice Denver into sending him to us?    Cash?   Picks?   Do you give up the picks for a rental player?

Still, it's a marginal upgrade for the Bulls, a chemistry risk, and hard to figure out the trade that makes sense for both sides without a third team which probably raises the price.  

Courtney Lee makes sense as a Bogans replacement but doesn't help you more than just not playing Bogans

Projected Cost: Cash + future 1st

I believe the Bulls have enough cap space if they waive John Lucas to absorb Lee without sending back anything to Houston.  Add cash to the deal and maybe the Rockets are willing to give up on Lee because their guard rotation is crowded anyway.

However, the Rockets have been playing Lee over 20 minutes a game, and despite us looking at Houston like a doormat, they're only a game out of the 8th seed in the weakened western conference.   Do they really give up a role player who's helping them for 3 million in cash and a late 1st?

Something could work here if Houston likes some of it's other guards.   Lee'd be a decent fit for the team as he can shoot and defend better than Bogans and is a step quicker to the hole.

Aaron Afflalo probably isn't available but what if we overpay?

Projected cost: 2 1st rounders + James Johnson

He's young enough to play a long term role for the franchise, probably doesn't cost an unreasonable amount to extend, has a role player mentality, can drills hots from the outside, and defend at a high level.

Afflalo is your prime Raja Bell that the Suns had.  He's not the best player out there, but he's a near perfect fit for what the Bulls want.   He's probably not as valuable to Denver in a rebuilding effort, but he's still awfully valuable.

Would Denver consider trading him at all?  If there's a player I'd go all in for on the trade market it might be Afflalo whom I see as a perfect fit, that said, he's a sub 15 PER guy, and likely costs you multiple picks. 

I'd give up the bulls 1st, the Bobcats 1st, and some filler to grab him due to his exceptional fit, but even with those assets, the Nuggets may simply just say no.  On the other hand, Afflalo will command a market value contract this off-season once he's making 5+ million a year, he may not look so valuable to them anymore.

Stephen Jackson is a possibility

Projected cost: Ronnie Brewer, James Johnson, Brian Scalabrine + bobcats 1st + Bulls 1st

The Bobcats probably want their pick back in the trade, and otherwise they'll likely look to just shed Jackson's contract.   The Bulls don't have pure expirings, so they'll have to send out Brewer or Korver to match salary.  I'd guess Brewer is the one to go in this scenario.

Jackson gives the Bulls a second perimeter shot creator, a solid defender, good shooter and positive locker room guy (he's a Rasheed Wallace type where his locker room presence is much better than his public opinion presence).    He's played as a star and as a role player and seems likely to accept his role whatever it is with the capability to lead the team when required and play as an option otherwise.

The problem is his age.   He's at the point in his career where his ability is about to fall off a cliff.  Brewer and Jackson both have three years left, and I think Jackson's an upgrade this year, but next year it could be a wash, and Brewer's probably better in year three.   Do you give up possibly two picks for a guy who helps you now and puts you in a worse financial situation and possibly worse on the court in year two and three?

Probably not.  Maybe the cost for Jackson won't be so high.  Maybe it won't take any picks at all.  A lot depends on who else is bidding on Jackson though as they cost could be even more if another team can offer more cash savings by accepting him without sending back any salary via trade exception.

Final thoughts

As much as we'd like an upgrade at SG, I find all of these trades unlikely.  The Bulls are most likely going to go forward with what they have as it's difficult to come up with a trade that really fits the Bulls needs especially since they'd like an upgrade in both the short and long term but can't offer considerable cash savings to any team to acquire one.

Comments

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  • man. that affallo trade would just be so great for us. C;est la vie. Can we can pick him up in the off season for the mle/offer a JJ reddick like contract to him?

  • Thonus, you are nuts if you think the Bulls are sitting tight with Keith Bogans! If the Bulls don't want to break the bank for a shooting guard and there isnt a long term fit on the market, how about Anthony Parker and possibly swapping Watson for Ramon Sessions?

    JJ and Watson for Parker and Sessions....they get a young prospect for Parker and swap a more offensive player in Watson for Sessions!

  • Taj is too valuable for us and I'd hate for use to trade Brewer away who we should be starting at SG right now! He routinely gets double the playing time of Bogans but isn't the starter.

    I could see trading JJ who doesn't play outside of garbage time but JJ like Brewer are full of potential and athletism and Taj is a very good defender and team guy and with Boozer not being a good defender trading Taj for another SG would be a big mistake especially not for a super star as in the players mentioned. Mayo is interesting as is Affalo, I like Smith's game but he is a risky character guy.

    I really don't see the Thib's love of starting Bogans! I think a big part of it is to help Rose but Watson while being a small is a decent ball handler but not a true pg, he's a combo guard but lacks the size. '

    Id be for starting KK like Doug suggests.
    At any rate I like TT trys to keep a stable starting lineup which many coaches don't do and the team can't get into synch as a result.

  • Phoenix has gotta rebuild at some point right? When that happens what if we throw a couple firsts and JJ and filler at Grant Hill? Can't he play some SG?

  • In reply to whonka:

    Hill has made it plain that he loves it in Phoenix & wishes to end his career there. He's not ring chasing

  • fb_avatar
    In reply to whonka:

    I'm thinking that Carmelo's heading to New Jersey and if there's any separation between Denver and NJ in negotiations that the Bulls could step in and pry JR Smith loose. He seems the more likely bet than Afflalo.

    I've got a long, complicated line of thinking I could post but why not wait til everyone's good and lubed up on eggnog? Merry Christmas, all!

  • In reply to whonka:

    i would never go for O.G. Mayo because he is so selfish and wouldn't accept to be our 4th scoring option after Rose,boozer and deng. Moreover, he is already unhappy with coming off bench in menphis. He is just a all hogger.

    For me the best fit is JR smith. He can bring energy and offense off the bench, he can wake up starters when we start bad in 1st and 3rd quarter, he is a great shoter most of all from downtown and he is a solid defender. I know that most you think that he doesn't behave well, but and then what ? this ain't a great problem, i'm sure he will decide to behave well because under the influence of others bulls players.

    If my wish list by order is :
    Smith
    Affallo
    Jackson
    Lee
    Mayo

  • In reply to deewaves:

    I'd like to see use rebuild through the draft unless a player becomes availible. I like our rescent drafts where we actually had picks to use. We've picked up reliable guys every year; Noah 2007 Rose 2008 Gibson 2009. We have a first rounder this year, could possibly move up in the draft by trading the restricted *Charlotte* pick. As much as I want the Bulls to compete, I don't want them to sell their assets down the river for a one year gambit at the eastern finals. The idea that Stephen Jackson might be availible is intriguing, to say the least. He is better than all the other SG names out there, and though he doesn't havbe the sexy name recognition of an OJ Mayo, he is a better option and a better player. And contrary to Doug, I think he can give you a solid 2 years, this year and next, before you see a dropoff. And I think his contract expires after 2012? I sorta remember the Warriors signing him to a 3 or 4 year before they dealt him to the Bobcats but im not sure? Mayo sucks when you line him up next to Jackson, a true NBA gladiator guy who plays both ways. If you can get Jackson cheap, I say go, if not, then wait for 2011 to fill the void at SG.

  • In reply to deewaves:

    I like Courtney Lee. But I think one way he can be pried away from Houston is to offer a young, underplayed player in return who has the potential to contribute despite his relatively low salary (maybe with the initials JJ). You know how Morey loves those.

    Any reasons why Marcus Thornton is not on the list? Not that I want him over the other guys, but he was one name that was being discussed before.

    How about Jordan Crawford? He has shown he can explode during one of the games Jamal and/or Joe Johnson didn't play.

  • In reply to deewaves:

    Afflalo is the only guy who I feel is a better option than just playing Brewer/Korver and benching Bogans. But I really can't see Denver giving him up cheaply. If the two firsts got it done I'd be all over it but I can't really see it.

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    In reply to DontLetsStart:

    I think I agree that of my wish list shooting guards the only one I'd start over Brewer/Korver is Afflalo. But, any deal that gets made probably moves Bogans and forces Thibodeau's hand. So picking up a quality backup shooting guard - let's say using Smith off the bench - makes the team better in two ways by making the bench stronger and forcing Korver/Brewer into the starting lineup.

  • In reply to DontLetsStart:

    I would love to just start Brewer. Problem solved.

  • In reply to deewaves:

    No Rudy Fernandez love? but I know with Brandon Roys knee problems he may be untradeable.

  • In reply to whonka:

    they would never give up Grant hill !!

  • In reply to whonka:

    Maybe not Grant Hill but Phoenix is a good place to look for wings since they now have a surplus with VC and Pietrus' arrival.

  • Doug wrote: I believe the Bulls have enough cap space if they waive John Lucas to absorb Lee without sending back anything to Houston. Add cash to the deal and maybe the Rockets are willing to give up on Lee because their guard rotation is crowded anyway.

    Doug is correct. Lee's salary is only $1.4 mil & can be absorbed if Bulls jettison Lucas.

    However, I'm not sure if Houst does that.....

  • Parker is a short term fix but his shooting would really help us out to start each half. Playing small with Parker, Korver and Deng on the wings would really open the floor for Rose.

    If we cant get a long term solution via trade, why not make a short term move for this year if it only means giving up JJ, who doesnt play?

    Sessions would be a big upgrade in the sense that our 2nd unit really struggles to get into the basic offensive sets with Watson, mainly because he in not comfortable handling the ball. Sessions is a natural PG and would really help make the other players in the 2nd unit better.

    Def a short term move but we are not trading anything substantial and I do believe it would help us this season.

  • I think this article is rediculous. The only name worth mentioning on this list is Stephen Jackson!

    Really, Aaron Aflalo? Are you people serious, I would never give up a 1st round pick.

    It is moves like any of these that keep teams down for years. Trading 1st round picks for marginal talent doesn't do squat unless you are the defending Champs.

    Keep the picks unless Jackson, JRichardson, Ray Allen, Ben Gordon, Brandon Roy. Those are names I wanna hear.

    Brewer/Korver is just as good if not better than all those other guys mentioned except Jackson or Mayo. Let's stop panicking and get Thibs to stop playing Bogans.

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