Many have anointed the Miami Heat as the team to beat in the NBA next season, including myself. Yes, they'll need to prove it on the court, but I can't put anyone ahead of them, even Boston or L.A. So for fun, I think it's good to look at what needs to happen for the Bulls to beat the Heat this season.
#5 Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer need to step up.
At
any given time, the Bulls will have to choose whether they want Kyle
Korver or Ronnie Brewer in there. Brewer gives them the best chance to
cover Wade without over committing with double teams, allowing the
team to focus more energy on LeBron. He should play 100% of his
minutes while Wade is in the game, and he should play at a very high
intensity whenever Wade has the ball even if he burns himself up and
needs to play fewer minutes.
Then when Korver subs in for Brewer,
the Bulls need Rose to cover Wade. Korver is going to be able to play
capable D on whomever the third perimeter player on Miami is, and can
space the court giving Rose a lot more room to play in offensively and
potentially punishing Miami for collapsing their defense too much.
Given Miami's roster is largely big, I think Korver can play SG against Mike Miller whenever he's on the court.
Finding the right combination of offensive and defensive subs here is going to be a big key in the Bulls ability to compete.
#4 Carlos Boozer needs to make Chris Bosh and Udanis Haslem his bitches
For
all the talk about Bosh, a healthy Carlos Boozer is a far more physical
and intimidating player. If Chris Bosh is defending him, then Boozer
needs to get very physical and just beat Bosh down. Make Bosh not want
it badly enough, which seems to be a mindset he's fallen into in the
past.
The Heat may not even try Bosh on Boozer and instead let
the more physical Haslem defend him, but then Boozer can use his size
advantage to create havoc and score at will as well. Whatever matchup Boozer ends up with, he needs to capitalize on it and provide the legitimate scoring threat to help keep Rose from being blanketed.
#3 Joakim Noah has to play big on the defensive end.
If there's one weakness to the Miami Heat it's they don't have much in the way of physical interior play, and their primary scoring threats are guys who want to get to the hoop. This puts a tremendous amount of importance on Noah.
Miami's greatest advantage with Wade/LeBron is the ablity to flip sides of the court and have an elite slasher on either end to take someone off the dribble. The interior defense becomes crucial in this instance as Noah's the second level of help on Wade/LeBron on
countless drives to the hoop. He needs to deter them, block shots,
and challenges shots while staying out of foul trouble.
As a side note to this, the Bulls need to be quick in their rotations to make sure someone picks up Noah's man to at least prevent an easy pass for a dunk, because Noah will spend all game leaving his man.
#2 Derrick needs to get into the paint
The Bulls have a lot of depth, passing, and ways to hurt you offensively. However, it all starts with Derrick getting into the paint. When Rose can create an opening offensively then Deng / Brewer can do their damage with cuts to the basket, Noah can hit open dunks and get offensive rebound position, and Kyle Korver will knock down open looks.
I know it's a "captain obvious" type statement, but everything starts with Derrick getting into the paint whether it's via the pick and roll, isolations, double screens, or whatever, the thing the Bulls need to do most offensively is get Derrick in the paint to pressure the Miami defense.
#1 Rebound the basketball
More so than anything else, the one strength the Bulls should have on the Heat is rebounding the basketball. They need to crash the offensive glass, protect the defensive glass and crush Miami on the boards.
Boozer and Noah are two of the best rebounding big men in the game. Deng's a very good rebounding small forward. Gibson grew into a good rebounder off the bench, and Rose has potential to rebound well as a PG.
The Heat have more efficient offensive players, and unless they're having a terrible shooting day, they're going to score on a higher percentage of their shots. What the Bulls have is the ability to take considerably more shots per game than the Heat.
Given Boozer, Noah, Gibson, and Deng's rebound rates, the Bulls should be able to create enough second chance points while holding their own on the defensive glass close the gap in terms of offensive talent.
Final thoughts
Can it happen? Can the Bulls beat Miami? In a game, yes. In a series, it's going to be awfully difficult. It will take ideal game planning, healthy, and play by our key players, and while I think they're underdogs, I wouldn't count them out before a series starts.
Filed under: Players
Tags: beat the heat, chicago bulls, derrick rose, miami heat
Great stuff. I pretty much agree with all the keys you have listed. I think that Brewer is probably gonna be our downfall against the Heat or any other team. Shooting guard is not a position where you can play a purely defensive player. Which is basically what Brewer will be.
Right now he sounds good in theory. He had a nice couple seasons in Utah, and the Bulls got him at a pretty good rate, so it doesn't feel like an awful move, but I think it can really hurt us.
Whenever I think of Brewer, John Salmons from early last year comes to mind. An above average defender, good size for his position, but because of his inability to knock down shots, open or not, he became somewhat of a pariah in the eyes of most Bulls fans.
Well, if they didn't like Salmons, they're gonna hate Brewer. He might be more athletic, or a better defender than Salmons, but he would have to be a LOT better in those areas to make up for the gap between the two in offense. I think Brewer is gonna be a lot like bad Salmons from last year on offense, only worse.
We can't offer him that fantastic offense that Utah runs, which specializes in getting guys that can cut and play well without the ball, open shots. We don't have a point guard that can get him easy baskets like D Will (Sorry Derrick, I love ya, but everything with you is a kick out, which Brewer ain't hitting). And we can't offer him players like Okur who shoot the three at more defensive positions which allowed for a guy like Brewer to be on the floor in the first place.
The only way I see this working is if Rose and Luol become amazing shooters. Both hitting at least 38% of their shots and shooting a high volume. And Brewer would have to basically be the best defensive shooting guard in the league. I find all that happening pretty unlikely. And even then, I'm not sure it makes much sense to keep Brewer on the floor. Like I said, shooting guard just is not a position where it pays to have a defensive stopper on the floor. That type of role should be for big men only.
One last thing. The big mistake that management made this off season was not making a bigger offer to JJ Redick. They had the money, and they desperately needed his particular skill set. Sometimes you just have to overpay. And that's the exact type of move that they could have done, but didn't simply because of financial reasons. Now we're gonna be searching for a player just like him for the entire season.
I think there's a difference between Salmons and Brewer: we expected Salmons to score. We're not expecting Brewer to score. One of the reasons we let BG walk is because we had Salmons. Then we played him out of position when Deng returned from injury and John went cold. We already know that Brewer is not to be depended on for scoring. We'll get points out of him from his hustle play, but we're mostly interested in his defense. We went after J.J. first because of that and when that didn't work out we pick up Brewer. It's primarily about expectations.
As far as making a BIGGER offer to J.J., are you kidding? The offer they made was too big to begin with. Anything over that would be insane. We needed his skill set, but not at an obscene price.
I don't see how expectations matter. Either the situation works or it doesn't. SO, if we expect Brewer to be a disaster on offense, it'll be ok because we kinda expected it? Not sure I understand that one.
As for Redick, offering him more money wouldn't have really hurt me or the team that much. All their money will be locked up in Rose, Boozer, Noah and Luol for the next several years. So I can care less how much profit Reinsdorf loses by signing Redick. Obviously if he's horrible it hurts, but other teams have overcome a lot worse contracts and still won big.
I think the Bulls can been the Heat in a game and in a series too considering their rebounding advantage. The problem is that LeBron and Wade will try to get us into foul trouble early and live at the charity stripe.
One thing I'm interested in is what does a monster game by Carlos Boozer look like? While he LOOKS like a 20/10 guy his career avg is only 17.2 ppg / 10.2 rbg. By contrast, Deng has avg'd 15.8 ppg for his career. Playing next to a PG like D-Will, I would expect him to be closer to a 25/11 guy. But when I say monster game, is he capable of dropping 40pts in a big game like the Mailman used to? Maybe not a fair comparison since Karl was a monster scorer, rebounder and had more heart. But when we have an advantage against a team like the Heat, he needs to drop 40 on the Bosh-Haslem combo to give us a shot. Wade is going to try to smother Rose all night so we have to make them pay elsewhere. If Deng can keep LBJ preoccupied and Rose the same with Wade, the paint should be open for Boozer to go bananas.
What if we gave him the Wes Matthews deal? With it front loaded as much as possible. That would be tough for Orlando. And whether they would match at that point is kind of irrelevant, cause at least I would know the Bulls tried their best. I guess that whole thing was just doomed form the jump. Morrow would have been a good pickup also.
Yea, but he scores so much off those cuts because of Sloan and Williams. Plus, like I said, they have other players that can shoot the three. We have none of those things. How good is Brewer gonna have to be defensively to make up for that? Most of the Utah fans that I've heard from (meaning read in blogs and message boards), say that Brewer isn't even the lockdown defender he's made out to be. They say he's just really solid. I don't think that's gonna cut it.
I don't think you are appreciating the options the Bulls have.
Rose will create off the drive and kick or pick and roll. Boozer can draw double teams and is a great passer. Deng is a well above average shooter (even 3pt shooter from the corners). Korver can knock it down as well.
I think there will plenty of opportunity for Brewer to cut to the basket. Not to mention the hopefully plentiful baskets in transition due to the teams rebounding abilities and potentially upgarded D thanks to Thibs.
The problem with Brewer is Juice said is he will be open all day with Wade/Chalmers all over Rose. So, basically Deng/Boozer have to stay out of the paint area to let Noah/Brewer to hang out there. That reduces the rebounding numbers also putting pressure on Noah/Brewer to make shots.
The other thing is if Brewer is expending so much energy on defense and he is already not a good offense guy...that will make it worse. Korver and Brewer in offense set/defense set is not a good idea either because of continuity and sync issues.
We need to put the hurt down on the Heat. Winning a game yeah sure, a series...chances are very slim unless Lebron and/or Wade go down then we will slice through them like a warm knife thre butter! GO BULLS!!!
Great Article...I am sure if a team like the Bulls, Boston or Orlando beat Miami...the coach will be definitely writing a book.
If we saw how Boston beat Cleveland in the playoffs, that's what we need to take. I think Orlando was different as LBJ/Cleveland took it a little easy after they had swept two teams earlier. Jamison is a good comparison to Bosh(lengthy, can score and not a great defender). Bosh might be more athletic, younger and overall a better player now..But Garnett(old and creaky) dominated Jamison. That's what we need from Boozer. Deng will not be Pierce(he is slower than Deng too)and he is the unknown in terms of defense/offense against LBJ. I know we know what he has done before but that was with a really average Bulls team. Deng has to burn LBJ if LBJ goes for help defense.
Brewer/Korver combo can be better than Ray Allen but they really have to click against Wade. Rose/Noah have to dominate their matchups.
SMALL FORWARD POSITION and THE BENCH:
Those are the keys to success this year. You should know that Doug.
Either Luol Deng raises his game to an All-Star level or the Bulls' brass find away to acquire Carmelo Anthony in order for them to truly compete for an NBA championships.
And Watson, Korver and someone else needs to SCORE in double-figures.
It's as simple and as complicated as that.
GOOD HEALTH being a given.
Deng and Brewer are kind of similar players offensively but if Deng develops his much desired 3-pointer, that will help Brewer and they can play together. Deng/Korver or Brewer/Korver combos might work ok on offense.
But if Brewer has a good mid range jumper going...that's great.
Deng has a very above average jump shot, close to one of the best long range 2pt shooters out there. Additionally his 3pt % hasn't been too bad the past couple years (primarily from the corners).
Don't forget #6...Pat Riley STAT RETIRED!A
The Bulls need to attack relentlessly to force the Heat to work on d. Drawing fouls would be even better. Would be nice to deny the ball to Wade or Lebron, whichever isnt bringing it up the court
QUESTION:
Why is Von Wafer, an NBA player, talking about Melo going to the Bulls?
http://twitter.com/vonwafer13/status/22661184413
Just curious. (B.I.G.)
ANOTHER QUESTION:
Weren't Melo and Von Wafer teammates in Denver?
Yes, they were.
DEJA VU:
Did I bring this subject (Chicago vs. Miami) weeks ago?
I believe I did.
Who remembers when I said, "Chicago just doesn't match up?"
That's how the Melo conversation got started. Feel free to flashback people.
Enjoy your weekend too.
So...
Just a couple points ...
Chicago Offense vs. Miami Defense:
1. Rose and Noah have decided advantages over their counterparts. Isolation Pick and Rolls should be able to expose this. But Deng and Brewer have to keep Lebron and Wade busy. If Deng is spotting up in the corner or on the wing for a 3pt shot, he's got to be able to hit them. And since Brewer doesn't pose much of a threat as a spot up shooter, he's going to have to be in constant motion to keep Wade focused on his slashing and cutting.
2. Wade gets a little credit for being okay as an on the ball defender, but Lebron is highly overrated. His help defense highlight reel blocks from behind are of minor significance in the long term. He'll get one or two, but a team that's aware of his presence can limit them significantly.
3. Position by position ... Rose is going to have to dominate ... Brewer has to find a way to get at least a few points, he can't get dominated in his matchup ... Deng has to do even better than Brewer. He's not going to beat Lebron, but he has to get his 15 points minimum ... Boozer needs to win his matchup. He'll be a #2 option vs. Bosh as a #3 option. He has to win that, but I really don't think he's going to dominate the position battle with Bosh. He just can't afford to get beaten ... and Noah has to win his battle by a decent amount. 8-10 points would be nice.
Chicago Defense vs. Miami Offense:
1. Despite the fact that Miami will be an offensive Juggernaut at times, I think this side of the ball favors the Bulls more than the other. And at the end of the day, I think it all comes down to buying into Thibodeau's ability to turn this team into a defensive power. Without having several of our players turn in significantly better offensive seasons than they have in the past, this team is not really an offensive powerhouse. But they DO have the personnel to be a terror on Defense. And to beat the best teams, I think that needs to happen.
2. Despite their offensive prowess, I think it's significant that a huge percentage of the combined shots of Lebron/Wade/Bosh (44%) came within about 5 feet of the basket. That's 1826 shots out of 4165 coming at or near the rim.
Additionally, their combined percentages are ...
Inside about 5 feet - 65.0% (as expected, since everyone's in higher in close)
Between about 5 and 10 feet - 39.7%
Between about 10 feet and the 3 point line - 40.0%
Outside the 3pt line - 32.8%
I think it may be an understatement to suggest that we MUST keep them out of the lane.
Doug suggests that Noah has to come up Big on defense around the basket. But I think it's going to have to be everyone. I mean, why not pack the lane and make them beat us from outside. Other than Miller, they have no significant outside scoring threat. And if you can keep them from easy baskets at the rim, they are just a slightly above average team. So make them win it the hard way.
3. Rebounding. Doug mentioned it and I'm glad he put it first on his list. I completely agree. It's our greatest advantage over the Heat. But at the same time, guys like Deng and Brewer can't slack off at all. We should dominate with Boozer and Noah, but Lebron and Wade can rebound if they are not kept under control.
Can we beat them? I fully believe that we can.
Can we beat them in a series? I really don't see it happening, but mainly because I just don't see us becoming as dominant on defense as I think we need to be. If we did, then I could see it happening.
Sometimes I think the first step to becoming a champion is to BELIEVE that you are good enough to be the Champions.
By the end of the season, I wonder how much we'll believe.
Look, I'm a die hard Bulls fan..but there is no way in hell...no way whatsoever the Bulls are beating a healthy Heat team. Lebron James and CRAP won 60+ games and overwhelmed us in the postseason. Adding Carlos Boozer isn't enough to to even threaten a team with the two of the top 5 best players in the game and a top 5 PF.
Before I get into the subject of this thread, I just have to mention one or two things about this idea that Lebron had "crap" for teammates and that this year's heat is going to be so much better than what Lebron had last year. I realize Lebron now has a teammate in D Wade that is a threat like he's never had before. But Lebron had a team last year that had a higher average PER and EFF than any other team. They won 61 games ... 66 the year before. It's absurd to suggest that he didn't have one of, if not the top team, in the league. At least, according to what they did in the regular season.
It's pretty much impossible to speculate exactly what the Heat will be this year ... and to compare that with what Lebron had last year is also not really possible. But I went ahead and tried anyways.
Comparing the two teams just based on last years stats, you'd think the Heat would win easily based on having 3 of the top 10 Eff ratings last year. But the comparison is shockingly close. In fact, they are almost identical ... with the heat winning every category by extremely slim margins.
10 Cavs vs. 11 Heat
PPG - 130.2 vs. 137.0
RPG - 54.2 vs. 56.2
APG - 27.0 vs. 32.2
SPG - 8.4 vs. 8.6
BPG - 6.6 vs. 6.7
Avg Eff. - 12.40 vs 13.07
Avg PER - 15.08 vs 15.48
If this Miami team had been an established team that just added Lebron and Bosh, I'd be much more concerned about them. But they aren't.
They are 7 returning Miami players (wade, and 6 of their worst bench players) ... all four other starters are gone ... Beasley, O'neal, Richardson, and Alston, who would have been their starter if not for the suspension. To that they added 5 guys ... 2 aging players who I'm not concerned about in Ilgauskus and House, along with Lebron, Bosh, and Miller.
To me that says that they have the SG and PF spots reasonably covered ... great starter at SF, but not much behind him ... lots of big bodies to throw at the Center position, but very little skill ... and a very very weak PG position.
I honestly don't see this Miami team being more than a couple games better than the Cavs of last season.
The one asset we have that I didn't see mentioned is the head coach - Tom Thibedeau was the defensive coach that helped defeat both Dwyane Wade's Heat and LeBron's Cavs in the playoffs back-to-back last year. If there's one guy that can gameplan successfully against the Heat, it's got to be the Bulls very own Coach TT.
I also LOVE the Bulls' bench over the Heat in particular...the Bulls' O needs to push the ball and make the Heat play hard on D to wear them down.
By the way, what's the over/under on how many games Dwyane Wade plays this season? I'm thinking 67 out of 82 regular season games sounds like a pretty good number as that is the average number of games he has played through his first 7 years in the league having played more than 75 games in only 3 of those years.
Haslem agreeing to sign with them an an EXTREME discount really was key for them. If he didn't their lack of D down low, and rebounding too could be an issue against other elite teams. I really think that slimy Riley is paying him under the table, or maybe Haslem has decided to make up that lost revenue by slinging dope. Apparently he was caught a few weeks ago with some weed in what looked to be an intent to distribute. Has anyone heard the latest on that?
You're right on about Bosh. He is a quitter. Make it get physical. I love that Boozer Bosh matchup. We can win that one and maybe even make Bosh impolde. I stick Kirk Thomas in there too to intimidate him as well.
I don't know if Bosh is a quitter but he is the one who looks like the odd man out of the three guys. LBJ/Wade know how to play without the ball and also initiate the play. But Bosh has to have the ball in the paint area to be effective on offense and he is decent on defense. The only advantage he has is he is long armed which will let him shoot over Boozer. The Bulls need a Rodman type PF on defense to get into Bosh's head during the playoffs.
They can win a spot game...but no chance in hell for a 7 game series.
He signed for a fraction of the mid-level, both Dallas & Denver were offering him the full mid-level
My understanding is that other teams offered him only 3 years, Miami gave him 5 years of guaranteed money. So he got more guaranteed money from Miami than he would have gotten from other teams.
Bulls can beat the Heat by chilling them out!
Or they could pull a Tonya Harding and bash Lebron and/or Wade's kneecap!
I agree if Asik looks competent enough against the French, Americans, Brazil and Argentina ...any of these teams, it should give us some hope. He might even develop to be a better big man dare I say than Taj Gibson.
The numbers alone suggest that Brewer is no worse than Hinrich was over the past few years, and likely better at some things like finishing at the rim.
Just being better than Hinrich may not be the goal, but given his legit size and defensive prowess, I think that Bulls fans will be pleasantly surprised with Brewer.
And maybe, just maybe having a lockdown type defender at 2 guard is just what the doctor ordered since there are so many scoring 2 guards that the Bulls will have to defend.
That Toronto game was the first time I saw the Bulls in person. what're the odds...