Gibson, not Noah, is our best trade asset

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I made a comment that if the Bulls were to trade Noah, the time to do it was last off-season.  His value was at it's peak at that point.   Don't worry about not wanting to give up Joakim Noah, other teams aren't going to be dying to get him either.  Not when he's paid at fair market value anyway.

Is Noah worth more than 11 million a year more than Gibson?   No, in
terms of salary Noah's probably worth 11-12 million a season and Gibson
is probably worth 5-7 million a season.  While I'm sure many teams would
love to have Joakim on their team, none of those teams are going to be
excited about the prospect of trading away significant assets and paying
12 million a season to make it happen.

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On the other hand, Taj Gibson has tremendous value.  He's a legit 3rd big man who might develop into a 2nd bigman and is paid a shade over the minimum for three more seasons.

If cost isn't a factor than Noah is the better player, but if we're trading Noah for an upgrade, then that team, by definition, is rebuilding.   In that scenario, Noah is no longer really all that valuable.   Rebuilding players are looking for value contracts not for quality players on expensive deals.  

Rebuilding teams need cap flexibility, not to maximize their wins from 33 to 37.   In fact, 33 probably helps them get a better lotto pick anyway.  For the Bulls, Noah has more value than Gibson.  We're trying to win right now.  The season is a failure if we don't make it to the 2nd round, and I think most fans are hoping for some ECFs at the very least in the next five seasons.

Much for that same reason, I don't think Denver wants Noah for Melo.   First they have Nene on the roster already, and they're scheduled to come way under the salary cap until they add some expensive new players.    Why screw up your cap space for Deng + Noah + your existing team?   That's a team that's not making the playoffs, doesn't have much upside and is fairly expensive. 

For Denver, Gibson at 1 million a season allows them to get a quality prospect at a dirt cheap price for three seasons to use their cap space with.  Getting the last bit of incremental talet isn't important.   It's not worth 11 million to go from 33 wins to 37 wins.   That's not the same as going from 53 wins to 57 wins, or possibly the 2nd round to the ECF or the ECF to the finals.

In Denver's situation, there's simply no way that Noah's worth 33 million over three years more than Gibson is.   So really, in terms of will Noah go for Melo, the answer is no.   I don't think it's in either team's best interest to do the trade that way.  I don't think it helps Denver nor does it help us.

In terms of trade assets for a star player, for better or worse, the Bulls best assets are Taj Gibson and the Charlotte first rounder.   

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  • Is there some hidden reason that the Bulls are extending Noah now so that teams are kind of scared to trade for him because of the contract according to you....

  • So if Denver doesn't even want Noah(or Deng), and they would be interested in Taj who else would we throw into the deal to bring it up to 85% or whatever of Anthony's $17 Mil? Wouldn't we have to wait until December, and then be gutting the team?

  • Doug your emphasis on PER/efficiency is enlightening and very relevant. And your knowledge of trade rules and practices is first rate.

    As for Noah's value to a team like Denver I agree with your point that teams trading stars want young lotto talent(Favors), expirings(Curry), and picks.

    I do think there is a very real chance with Noah again adding significant muscle/weight that he has reached or is very near critical mass. Meaning: he has enough strength/weight to no longer be nudged/banged off balance around the basket so guys can swim past for layups and dunks. As I've said to me that brings Joakim's value/game to a whole new level.

    During that five game western win streak Noah and Taj were shutting down the lane blocking shots like crazy. When Noah was out we dropped what ten straight?

    Noah's winning energy like Taj largely comes form his defense. If Thib's as a head coach can command his players respect, and the respect of the refs fighting for his players then Taj wont get reamed off the court with b.s foul calls. Then his confidence and his shot becomes a real weapon as does his empowered D. You throw in Boozer who now appears a matured, committed player and you have a monster front line.

    I don't want to trade Noah especially until December when it will be confirmed if he's reached the next level as a defensive anchor. And if he has indeed reached ciritical mass then your talking a guy who will effect winning in a monstrous way. And will be in my book untouchable.

    I still say Denver will not let Carmelo go for nothing. So he will be able to tell them where he wants to go. And it wont be the Bulls. We are not getting Anthony for Taj Gibson, and what gutting the team? Getting Carmelo is not doable with our payroll/roster situation unless they want Deng which most people feel they absolutely would not take his contract.

    Even if Denver would want Deng, what makes anyone think Anthony wants to come here when LeBron and Bosh didn't? Carmelo wants to join someone he considers a made guy who has a definable NBA identity he can buddy up with like Amare. Then hope they can pull in Tony Parker or CP3. At this point guys just dont want to come and play with Derrick Rose.

    Like I said before unless D-Rose and Joakim both bust out with monster seasons(Derrick 25ppg and Jo 13ppg, 13 boards, 2 blocks). and the Bulls are on above 50 win pace then maybe Carmelo talks to Derrick or Boozer, and decides he will join Chicago for a Big Three. And if so then the Nuggets will do what it takes to accomodate him just the way blowhards Dan Gilbert and Bryan Coangelo did.

  • Doug, you are OTfM again. I want to know though, why wouldn't Denver consider Noah and then not extend him until after the new CBA. They could easily claim publicly they want to see more of Noah "first hand" before they commit financially to him, and by the time they're ready it's a lower salary ceiling.

  • Doug I'm a guy who's been reading your stuff, & like what I read most of the time. I can't remember a clunker yet. You definitely have gained my respect, & I use your pieces as both resources, and ideas to post some discussion board topics on other sites, as well as just for the personal knowledge.

    That being said I have a few counterpoints on your thoughts to the proposed Noah deal, but won't get into all the details about it at this time. I do want to ask why do you think cap room on acquiring expiring deals would be so appealing here? I mean the best impending free agent is already on the team, and wants out. There are no Superstars going to be available in free agency that can make that big of an impact besides Anthony except for maybe Noah who will get locked up before that happens anyway. Pauls still a couple years away, and he isn't going to Denver. As a mater of fact I don't see Denver as the destination of choice for a superstar even if he were available.

    Even if they get rid of all their functioning vets this season to get a high lottery pick I'm not seeing any Durants in this draft. The guys I'm seeing as the top prospects are drawing comparisons to guys like Al Jefferson in Jared Sullinger,and even Luol Deng in Harrison Barnes who is more athletic than Deng in my opinion. Now there might be a stud PG in Dukes Kyrie Irving who I hear draws some comparisons to Chris Paul. All would be fine additions I'm sure but again there's no Durant,Wade,Lebron,Kobe,Duncan ect. in the bunch. No one worthy of sucking badly to get.

    In that situation wouldn't it be prudent to collect picks, & decent young players like Gibson, & yes Deng who's only 25, and has had some solid stats while playing injured the last few years. His contract would be a bit of a cap hit, but again whats out there. I feel Deng is a top ten SF. Thats pretty good. I saw Yahoo had him ranked eighth. This way you get guys not great enough to get you in the post season, (so you stay in the lottery), but yet good enough to be nice pieces to add to a couple top 5-15 draft picks, and form a nice young nucleus. Then they'd still have enough cap flexibility to add some mid level vets along with your exceptions to bring in some specialist type role players. BTW I'm not very impressed with Gallinar, and the jury's still out on Anthony.

  • Sorry I meant to sat Anthony Rudolph at the end of my post.

  • Randolph that is. Three times a charm. What da ya know no typos this time.

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