Click the link, because Stein's got a great piece up covering the Melo / Noah thing. For the most part I agree with what he's written, but here's an interesting bit about Noah's contract talk with the Bulls.
1. Before you expend too much brain power trying to figure out
whether the Bulls would really part with Joakim Noah in a trade for
Carmelo Anthony, be advised that the Bulls are actually working on
something else Noah-related: Getting him locked in for the long term
with a contract extension.
The sides have been negotiating quietly for weeks and sources close
to the process say that sufficient progress has been made -- although no
deal is imminent -- to all but guarantee that terms on a five-year
extension will be reached before the Halloween deadline.
Noah is determined to stay in Chicago, one source assures, while the
Bulls continue to send clear signals that they have no interest in
parting with their center. Not even for someone of Anthony's pedigree,
as one source told ESPNChicago.com's Nick Friedell.
I think this lends credence to the Alex Kennedy tweet about the Bulls throwing out 5/60 for Noah, because we hadn't heard anything about Noah and the Bulls negotiating at all while now we hear two stories in two days about the negotiations. I'm still not sold on the number, and I'm going to try and do some research to find out whether it's good or not, but I'm likely to hit a road block on that one.
Granted, if Noah's not taking 5/60 then I find it hard to believe any ground is going to be closed from here to Halloween unless Noah just changes his mind. 5/60 is a pretty fantastic offer for Noah, who's a very good player, but has his limitations. It also might be the max contract next off-season, so he doesn't have a whole ton of head room to improve over this by playing out the year.
Given the fact that he's got the frame that leads to potential injuries, and that he's got no more than 5 million in upside by playing out the season while probably having 10 million or so in down side (without a catastrophic injury) it seems like a fair deal to me.
The thing is, with the new CBA coming, the years are almost certainly going to be shortened as well, so the traditional thought of waiting a season to lock in the 6th year doesn't even apply here, because I'd bet large amounts of money that the max contract length goes down to 4 years for a new team and 5 for your existing team.
All in all, I won't be surprised if this gets done, but I will be surprised if it gets done for over 5/60, and the rational part of me still has a hard time buying into the idea the Bulls offered 5/60 and Noah is holding out. The reverse just feels a lot more likely.
Also in Stein's link he mentions that Denver isn't ready to trade Anthony, they haven't talked to him. This matches what I've heard as well, and I've noted all along that if there's a trade, I don't expect it to be soon. I put the odds of us getting Anthony lower than our odds of landing one of the big three this summer. Maybe 10% or so is where I'd say they land.
I think including Noah into the deal actually sweetens it less for Denver than it hurts us as well. Deng + Noah will cost Denver more than Melo and provide fewer wins. I think they'd rather start from scratch. For Denver, three years of Taj Gibson making $1 million while rebuilding is probably better than 5 years of Noah making 12 million when they're scheduled to be 30 million under the cap.