Blogabull brings us the four factors

A nice comparison of the Bulls vs the Cavs using the four factors matched up against each other can be found here.   The key reason as to why the Bulls have little hope is here:

Now, the bad news...and that means we have to look at Bulls offensive (pun) statistics. 

 

Eff eFG TO% OREB% FT/FG
Bulls Offense 103.5 (27) 47.7 (28) 15.2 (15) 26.6 (16) 21.7 (21)
Cavs Defense 104.1(7) 48.2 (3) 13.9 (T26) 22.8 (2) 21.8 (13)

This is the thing about facing the best team in the league. They can
be good at both offense and defense, a concept us fans in
mediocrity-land don't believe is possible.

The Bulls stand a chance against the Cavs offense and holding them to a reasonable amount of points.   What they don't seem to stand a chance on is defense where the Cavs have one of the better defensive teams in the league against our wretched offense.

Matt concludes that the Bulls will need to win by hoping Rose/Noah have the best series of their lives.   Hard to argue with anything there as depressing as it might be. 

Matt picks the Cavs in five, and I've already noted in my overall breakdown that I agree.

The Bulls can win the matchup at PG, and they can win it at C, but they aren't dominantly better at either position.   They might even win the matchup at SG.   So how can the Bulls win three of five starting matchups and have no chance?   They're barely going to win any of them, and the gap at SF and PF is huge.   The gap with the bench is mammoth. 

The Bulls will have no answer for LeBron James.   Luol Deng has been serviceable in the past, but he's playing on one wheel right now, and couldn't even stay with John Salmons on defense.   Tyrus Thomas has done a nice job on James at moments, but he's gone.

The Bulls will have to hope rookie James Johnson or Kirk Hinrich can slow James down, and the odds of either are frighteningly small.   On the other end, Derrick Rose is a better player than Mo Williams, but he'll be playing through double teams all game long with a closed off lane while Mo Williams will get a ton of uncontested jumpers.   The end result might show Williams having a better series.

If the Cavs can get back on defense to limit Noah's fast break points, then the Cavs stand a very good chance of controlling him on the offensive glass, and you never know which Kirk Hinrich is going to come to the stadium any given day.   When the Bulls play at their absolute peak, they're going to be good enough to beat the Cavs on an off day.  

That combination might happen once this series, it might not happen at all, but it's not going to happen four times.

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  • Yeah are changes are very slim to none to win the series!
    A true David vs Goliath series! But we have nothing to lose as long as we try our best until we get some good reinforcements in the offseason! GO BULLS!!!!!

  • EXACTLY...Bulls have nothing to lose right now...if they get swpt it was expected...but if they can steal a couple games from them, it will really help us hopefully in free agency. I really hope the Bulls let James Johnson get a crack at LeBron James...he has the strength and quickness to at least stay with him.

  • Very true JJ is a athletic big that needs more and more confidence! Keeping up with Lebron, probably, the best basketball player on the planet is a tought assignment, but it will help his game. He is only a rookie and has shown flashes of brilliance!
    Deng is hobbling around and Lebron will eat him up I think we all can agree. We need to be creative with defending Lebron, JJ is one of the few guys with the size, length, and youth/athletism that can keep up with Lebron and like our hopes of beating Goliath...it's a no lose situation with much to win if we/JJ succeeds! ;-)

  • In reply to smiley:

    I don't think guarding LBJ is good for anyone's confidence.

  • agreed, use JJ as option for Defense since Deng is slightly injured and then we can insert Deng for open shots. If he can connect. Or we can play a little 2 man game with Rose and Noah. Get shaq in foul trouble early! Some thoughts. GO BULLS

  • Actually, the Bulls have an awful lot to lose, like all the free agents, starting with Lebron.

    If we go out like lambs, playing like we did against New Jersey, Milwaukee, and Miami in April we will severely damage our image as an up an coming team.

    If, however, we are able to repeat last season's series against the Celtics, winning at least 2 if not 3 games and competing ferociously even in the losses, then we become a hot/sexy team in everyones eye's going into free agency.

    Who knows, if we make it hard enough on Lebron, maybe he sees the light and realizes that the only place that he can realize his self proclaimed destiny and over take Michael Jordan is in Chicago.

    I am guessing that the lambs prevail, and we flail(in free agency).

  • bigway-

    Youre saying that potential free agents are going to make the determination of whether or not they come here based on our performance in the playoffs?

    What does that say about NY, Washington, etc?

    The outcome of this series has nothing to do with whether or not a FA comes here.

    The money and D Rose are the reasons, regardless of this series.

  • In reply to Dmband:

    Really, ask Ben Gordon how he got $58 million dollars from Detroit. The Bulls were the talk of the NBA because of that series, so guys took notice, and Gordon who still shot for shit got paid.

    The money is the same eveywhere, Rose is certainly an asset, but he is only an asset if percieved as a winner.

    The Bulls had all the money in the world last time and ended up with Ron Mercer, why was that, maybe because they were worse than Knicks or even the Nets are now.

  • In reply to Dmband:

    Who gives a crap about what the NERFBoy at Dbagabull thinks about basketball. He still can't get over the fact that Ben Gordon is not the greatest midget basketball player in the history of the world, hated Noahs guts from the day that he was drafted, and was probably a Beasely over Rose guy too.

    There are no factors to analyse in this series, there is only Lebron, it doesn't take any analysis, and relatively little basketball acumen to come up with that.

  • In reply to Dmband:

    The big difference between 2000 and 2010 is Rose and Noah. That Bulls had no budding all-stars. Second, the Jerry Krause effect was still there. The organization had just ill-treated their superstars(atleast in the eye of the NBA players). I think for all his faults, Paxson is a better seller than Jerry.

    But that said, two issues bother me
    1. NBA players seem to like the better weather cities i.e. Miami now.
    2. If Bulls couldn't win a fight with just Orlando last time(for FA), this time they have NY, NJ, Mia and maybe Cleveland and Dallas(S&T) for a 3/4 guys

    Definitely a good showing will help. Realistically, if the Bulls can win 2 games...that would be a great selling point

  • In reply to Dmband:

    Klank Hinrich and Luol Dung are the keys to any type of upset. Pretty unlikely as seeing that Klank only shoots over 38% one in every five games and Dung disappears for quarters at a time (often in the fourth).

  • Ya i would agree...any team would probably get beat pretty bad in a series with Cleveland.

    Bulls have to keep Rose off of Mo Williams as well. Theres a reason why we have Kirk Hinrich...to take on tough defensive matchups. Keep Rose on Parker so he can save some for the offensive end.

  • There is only one factor you need to know about, and his name it LeBron. LeBron was awesome in last year's playoffs, just none of his help turned up at all. I don't think he's even going to need the help to turn up against the Bulls.

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