Let's say the natural max guys are off the table [and honestly, Bosh is pushing it to be included in that group, but with the number of bidders he will absolutely get the max]. The Bulls are left staring at Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, and David Lee. There are a slew of other teams with max cap room, and it seems highly likely at least a couple go all in.
Can you really see the Knicks coming away with no one after everything they've put their fans through? I can see them going Amare, Joe, here's the max. Bam. Two more guys off the table.
The Nets new owner has deep pockets and also has promised to be a big spender. Who knows what a Russian billionaire is going to do in free agency, and despite the record, the Nets have some pieces to work with going forward.
Miami might make a big push to bring in someone to play with Wade or risk losing Wade for nothing, so it can't be too surprising if they go heavy on Boozer, Bosh, or Amare.
While I don't think Amare, Boozer, or Johnson are necessarily max guys, NBA teams have had a long history of bidding each other up and vastly overpaying guys when they have money available. There's going to be a record amount of money available and if the big three stay home, that money has to go somewhere.
The real question is will the uncertainty of a new CBA combined with a horrid economy cause owners to hold back money? They never have in the past, and though it's probably the smart plan, I don't expect owners as a whole to do so this summer either. With that backdrop, what do you expect from the Bulls?
Do they max Joe Johnson? Amare? Boozer? David Lee? Should they?
While many have viewed Lee as the value option this summer, I'm not sure that he's going to be available at a reasonable price this summer either. Given that he's got no injury history and will be a young 27 there's a lot of reasons Bulls fans like Lee, but other teams will like him for those same reasons.
Realistically, I wouldn't want to go more than 14 million a year on any of the four, and I think all four are going to go above that price range which puts you in the position of sucking it up and overpaying and then hoping for the best or missing out on the top seven free agents and ultimately overpaying Anthony Morrow or another lower tier FA.
The problem with overpaying is obviously the long term problems it causes. The problem with not overpaying is that the cap space will disappear, and the Bulls won't have anyone better to add via FA in the future either.
One advantage of pursuing David Lee is that his max contract is limited. The most David Lee could get on a max contract would be an average of around 15.75 million (could go up or down a little pending where the salary cap lands). The other guys could hold out for offers closer to 20 million a season.
If you have to choose between David Lee at 15.75 million a year, Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer, or Amare Stoudemire at 18-20 million a year, or not spending your money, what do you do?
After the big three, there are a few strategies you could hope for:
1) Go hard after Lee right away since there is a lower cap on where the bidding goes on him.
2) Wait and hope that the money dries out, and that after everyone is done spending there's one of the big 7 left who will then sign for a reasonable price tag (strikes me as unlikely, but you never know)
3) Only pursue guys you like on favorable deals knowing you're likely to get shut out on most of them.
4) Try and sell your cap space for draft picks to other teams who want to bid.
It will be interesting to see how this story unfolds, and if the Bulls fail to land one of the big three, then they're going to be in a tough spot no matter what.
Filed under: Uncategorized
Tags: 2010 plan, amare stoudemire, anthony morrow, carlos boozer, chicago bulls, david lee, joe johnson
My answer depend on if we sign Lee at the 15.75 max, if we can sneak Morrow, Bell or Mile Miller in with the extra cap space. If we can't, than I'd say go for Amare at the max over Lee. Boozer and Joe IMO I'd go with Lee
Doug,
I'd be curious to get your thoughts. If we ultimately declined paying Ben Gordon 9-11 million a year just so we could sign David Lee for 15 million a year, that's going to be a hard pill to swallow for me.
Maybe I haven't watched enough Knick basketball on my league pass, but is Lee really in the same league as Carlos Boozer?
Just to let everybody know, Rose's injury might not be just a sprain. There are many bones in the hand/wrist where small fracture may not be seen on X-Ray. He is having an MRI Which is a much more sensitive test. If there is damage then Rose is done for the year.
http://www.sbnation.com/2010/3/12/1369662/derrick-rose-injury-wrist-out-for-season-sprained-broken-bulls-magic
I think it's possible that the Bulls will overpay. If they sign Amare, Johnson or Boozer they will most likely end up overpaying. I think i'm more interested in seeing their gameplan. Are they going to play hit and miss with every big name free agent, or will they go into 2010 with a specific idea of where they're looking to spend their money. I think they can end up overpaying or end up with nobody if they go from Lebron to Wade and unto the next guy in their free agent queue.
anyone who gives David Lee a penny over 38-40 million needs to be put against a wall and have fans throw rocks at you. Lee is a classic case of an average player racking up stats on a team that goes nowhere, one of the worst defenders in the league. He will score you 20 but give up 30 to the other teams PF or C.
Agreed on Lee. I think he actually makes your team worse, overall, that what you have now (Taj/Hakim); when you factor in the crippling effect on the salary cap his contract would have.
Of course, he is supposedly a 'hustle' and 'character' guy, meaning he'll probably be sharing a media session with the other "big" Bulls signing (Kalenna Azubuike, anyone) sometime this summer.
UGH!
I live in NY and watch alot of Knicks games and yes he makes Knicks worse and would do the same for us. You cant imagine the Knicks fans who tell me that they pray my bulls get Lee lol.
Is it really overpaying if you
QUESTIONS TO PONDER:
Chris Bosh - Why would he leave Toronto when they are going to pass an older Boston Celtics team in the standings next year?
Amar'e Stoudemire - Why would he leave Phoenix when they are set to pay him $17.7 million dollars next season?
Carlos Boozer - Doesn't he have a home in Miami? (Yes)
Joe Johnson - Is he really worth the max? (No)
David Lee - Why would he stay with the Knicks with all the disrespect he is getting from that organization, regarding trade rumors and the lack of an initial contract extention?
* Dwyane Wade and Dave Lee are the two guys the Bulls should try to land.
Did the Bears over pay for Peppers? Most likely yes....but at the end of the day who has him on their team...the Bears. I think there are 4 guys worthy of Max Money....Bron,Wade,Bosh and Amare. I would give any one of them max money. Boozer,Joe Johnson,Lee should not get max money. If we sign Joe Johnson with max money, that would be idiotic. I rather sign 24 year old Rudy Gay for a much cheaper price.
If Im the Bulls right now, i might really think about tanking the rest of this season. Especailly if Rose's injury is worst then we think. Every team knows the Bulls are fighting injuries so i really dont think it will effect of Free agent signings. Plus if we land in the top 10...we keep our pick. Then our offseason could be....Xavier Henry and Bosh or Amare.
Rose,Hinrich
Xavier Henry,Hinrich
Deng,James Johnson
Amare,Taj,Warrick?
Noah, Miller
Thats a top 3 team in the east. Amare would come here because Phoenix isnt willing to give him max money and Chicago probably will. Thats why he would leave.
- I find it hard to believe that Amar'e would walk away from $17.7 million.
- Deng or Johnson need to be traded.
- Xavier Henry could be staying in college for another year.
Doug I know as a "voice" for fans like other media guys you take one position one day and have a change of mind, or propose the reverse point of view another day. You as much said so yourself. Hell, so does just about every fan. It's the nature of the game, and it's fun.
You stated recently that after all the profits(you listed the Bulls/Jerry at No.1 over the past decade) that it's time to spend some cash, bring in some major talent, and show some rewards for fan loyalty/dollars.
I realize that was a one day venting/sentiment. Usually what I more often hear from you is a frugal/thriftiness that belies of an owner's view that "Thous shalt not exceed the cap" even in a big city sports mega market like Chicago. So what do you think? Do you really want the Bulls to get a name coach that will draw in two Max Free agents to let Derrick's game flourish, and the Bulls contend? That means going over the cap, and not gutting the rest of the team. It means Noah, Taj, Deng, Rose, two Max studs(Wade/Bosh), and two or three other solid support guys that "fit." Maybe Asik comes over, and turns out to be a quality bench guy as Pax envisioned.
So without any hedging, I know it's hard not to do when your name/rep is on the line, but with some courage and honesty do you or do you not think the Bulls should go after Wade and Bosh full bore while luring them with a name coach signing, and go over the cap if they can secure two studs with Rose/emerge a contender?
By the way I can not believe with Wade, Bosh, Rose, Noah, Taj, Deng these guys would not excite a regional fan base that would spell big time profits(not loss) for Jerry and the Bulls ownership. No to mention the commercial opps for a hometown Wade paired with the hype/showtime of Rose(imagine Rose' marketing bonanza then) and Bosh. The thing that makes this so tantalizing is the Bulls do have core in place with Noah, Taj(those two were a studly tandem defensively especially if you get a name coach in here who fights for Taj on foul calls, and gets him to assert himself and fight for himself). Taj defensively already as a helper is huge. He puts on 15 pounds(big if) of muscle he becomes a force next to Noah defensively.
They do have the core. Will they act(or at least attempt to make the big play)? Or was the "we could sign two [Max Free Agents] just hyperbole/B.S. It is my birthday by the way so if you affirm this pursuit(of two Max F.A.'s) you would be making the online portion of it a happy one ;)
I meant to state up front that Gar and Jerry both have stated it's possible they go after/sign two Max Free Agents. Point being is this hyperbole/B.S. or a for real possibility? And if so are you in favor of doing it the right way probably meaning about $10 or more Mil over the cap?
OK Doug if it is as you say, I misunderstood in a major way what the options were of going over the cap. Amazing that only the privileged L.A. Lakers(Shaq, Kobe, and Pau), Riley/Miami(Shaq), and Boston(McHale sending his buddy Ainge Garnett) obtained championships through "trades."
And these restrictive rules of not allowing someone to go over the cap are supposed to help the little guy/markets?? Hahahaha. What a f-ing joke.
So why if we can only go over the cap with a sign and trade say for Bosh(gutting the team assuredly by having to trade Joakim and probably Ta) would Gar and Jerry both say they might sign two Max Free Agents?! They did say this. I'm not making this up. WTF!?
lol Dalibar Bargoric might have been the worst Bull of all time.
I like what i saw from Acie Law though.
I think Amare is in a different category to Johnson/Boozer/Lee. Amare would be worth the max except for injury and attitude concerns. So if we pay him the max it's easier to accept it as being a gamble. If we pay one of the other three the max, it's just plain overpaying.
Ya agree....Ill pay max money for Amare, but i probably wouldnt for Booz,Joe Johnson,Lee. Amare is still 28 and has a ton of game. I really dont believe the attitude problems. Only time that comes up is when they talk about trading him. And if i was about to get traded i would be pissed too. Especailly since how much he has brought to the Suns organization.
Amare would only get 17mil for 1 year though. After that he just becomes a free agent in 2011. Or he could just sign a max deal in the summer and make like 16 mil for 5-6 years. So i really dont think that extra mil is enough for him to stay. Especailly since Phoenix has been trying to trade the guy for the last 2 years.
Henry could stay but he could leave, your right BUT you also have Hassan Whiteside,Ed Davis,Cousins,Monroe, Cole Aldrich,Derrick Favors,Wesley Johnson ect...in the top 10 of the draft. If the Bulls keep getting these injuries why not just keep our players out a little longer then they should. Shut Noah down completely...Give Rose 2 weeks...give Deng a week or more. Everyone around the league knows the Bulls are a good team when 100% healthy, and they all know were a injured team right now. Heat(wade),Hawks(Joe Johnson),Raptors(Bosh) all know Chicago has injuries because were in the playoff hunt with those teams. I say tank a little bit so you can sneak in the top 10 and grab a #9 or #10 draft pick and then sign a bigtime free agent. The Heat did it a couple years ago and landed Beasley.
I agree that Miami/Riley absolutely tanked to get Beasley. Only an ultra-tight lipped/united front of conformity Riley led franchise could keep up the front, and pull this off. Not to mention the enabling hugely Riley/Wade fawning "media" down there. It's staggering what homers and butt-kissers they are if you read them with any regularity.
As for tanking it's dishonest and bad karma. I'd probably have to say no let's just play these guys when we're/they're able to go. But I wish we had that No. 11 instead of 17-18 the way it's looking.
csharp3410:
About 100,000 michigan basketball fans are wondering the same exact thing..
hilarious discussion on WSCR today discussing if tonights Bulls lineup could perhaps be the worst bulls lineup of all time....
They had some really funny ones that included Brent Barry, Dickey Simpkins, Rusty LaRue...
THIS JUST IN:
Derrick Rose has a sprained wrist only, but will NOT play vs. the Heat.
http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/03/sprained-wrist-will-sideline-rose-for-heat-game.html
Can anybody on this team MAN-UP? Why don't Rose, Noah and Deng sit the last 18 games of the season, so the Bulls can have a shot at a REAL WINNER, Evan Turner, in the draft lottery?
Sounds like a good idea to me.
You have to sit 48 hours so you ice the wrist or it will become very swollen
Thats just another selling point to possible free agents....We have Max money, huge city, huge market, D Rose,Noah,Deng and a top 10 draft pick. When our team really is good enough to be a #5 seed in the playoffs.
Anybody else remember when David Robinson went down and the Spurs got the #1 draft pick and landed Duncan. That led them to multiple championships. Not saying we will win any championships or anything but having a top 10 pick compared to say #17 pick is a lot nicer. You could use it or you could trade it. Difference between Hinrich and Wade is that Wade only went 2 spots ahead of Hinrich. I say go for the draft pick if it continues to get worse.
Mr. Happy:
In response to this:
Chris Bosh - Why would he leave Toronto when they are going to pass an older Boston Celtics team in the standings next year
Because its Toronto.
ps. That shot by Evan Turner was SIIIIIICK.
lol thats funny.....ya i saw that shot too, why wouldnt Michigan put pressure on him???? That was a terrible decision.