Stop saying the Bulls should tank

Sports radio guys, media, fans, lend me your ears. 

Stop saying the Bulls should go for the #10 pick and lose out and root for losses.   First, it won't work, can't work.   Second, the pick swap is more or less irrelevant.

For the Bulls to have even a coin flip shot at the 10th pick, it would mean that the Clippers need to finish 5 and 8 while the Bulls lose out.   That's not going to happen people.   Ie, we have no chance at getting the 10th pick even if we lose out, so stop talking about it.   I hear on the radio at least once a day a discussion about how the Bulls should pursue the pick.

Secondly, when lamenting the swap from 11th to 17th understand that there's a pretty smooth drop off in terms of talent after the top few picks in any draft.    It's not like there are great players in this draft and drafting 11th would have gotten us a star whereas drafting 17th will get us a scrub.   Here is a list from the last decade of guys who got more than the MLE (or seem on the path to do so) drafted 11-17 and where they were taken:

11: Andris Biedrins
12: Thadeus Young (maybe on the path)
12: Jason Thompson (maybe on the path)
13: Richard Jefferson
14: Troy Murphy
15: Al Jefferson
15: Rodney Stuckey (at one point he was, probably not now)
16: Hedo Turkoglu
16: James Johnson (I kid.. I kid..)
17: Desmond Mason
17: Josh Smith
17: Danny Granger

Now there are a bunch of guys who got multi-year extensions after their rookie contracts at each position, but you're talking about guys who are generally not starting caliber players or the role playing 5th starter who could be upgraded [Ridnour, Pietrus types, click here for a complete list].  

In general, note that the mid 1st round isn't likely to yield you much regardless of where you pick, so there's little sense getting up in arms over the swap.  Would I rather pick 11th than 17th?  Of course, with good scouting, you're always better off drafting earlier.   Am I convinced our odds of getting a great player are a lot higher at 11 than 17?  No, not really.

Comments

Leave a comment
  • Don't tell us, the fans, to stop telling the Bulls to tank the season. Tell the trainers to get these kids back on the court and tell Gar Foreman to stop creating a reason to fire Del Negro in three weeks.

  • A pro team should never tank...it's one thing to play your younger guys when you are out of contention...butyou always play to win.

  • It's tough to follow the rules when you see other teams like Miami who clearly tanked with Wade and Marion and god knows who else they "shut down" for a prolonged/longer then necessary portion of the season to drop into oblivion, and ensure greatest odds of the No.1. As it is, they missed out on at minimum a very, very good player in Derrick, and are left with Michael "very talented but very troubled" Beasley. And also maybe a bit of a tweener as he is not able to post up as effectively in the NBA as he did in college. So maybe there is some justice.

    Yeah, we all know cheating, lying, tanking is wrong, and a lot of us think you do bad deeds, and bad things(karma) will come around so to speak. But it's hard though when you think about rules we follow supposedly put in place for the sake of fairness. Yet the most succeesful people find ways/"friends" to get around the rules. Rules such as the cap.

    To keep bigger markets like L.A. from buying all the talent/championships, the cap only allows you to spend over to retain your own drafted talent or through "trades" for players and their Bird rights. Though you do have to pay "luxury" tax. Ironically named since only the big city markets can afford such luxury players/payrolls.

    It just seems odd to me that small market and other unglamorous teams(Chicago included with their misguided "everybody said it was the thing to do" Ben Wallace -32 yrs old and lowest rebounding total in six years - "splash" and Reinsdorf personally insulting coaching prospects like D'Antoni to ensure he's in charge/doesn't have to spend) never get such windfall trades. Maybe they could have had Gasol for Deng and whoever, but funny how L.A. changed the parameter for garbage/expiring contracts.

    But Riley gets Shaq for Ododm, L.A./Heisley enabler of N.B.A huge profit/marketing bonanza with Kobe the best player and Phil paired with the direly needed big Gasol, and Ainge/Garnett Boston collusion get Allen and Garnett. How fortunate some people are.

    So the few, Lakers/Phil(Kobe/Pau), Riley/Miami(Shaq), Boston(Garnett/Allen) just get lucky with heavily one sided "trades." While unsavvy, honest saps/outsiders/unimportant people like the Bulls can't even think about going over the cap just by signing a couple of talented free agents.

    There's something rotten there when the Lakers/Phil, Riley/Miami, and Boston(Ainge/McHale) can wink wink set up select franchises for championships. You're telling me Pau Gasol(I don't want to hear about his bro Marc G. or other equally valuable windfalls - hardy, har/b.s.), Kevin Garnett for Al Jefferson and a bunch of baggage handlers. It's too bad Kerr wanted to keep his job unlike McHale who'd had enough, or else he could have handed over Stoudemire for Tyrus Thomas etc. rumored laughable exchanges to his old buddy Pax.

    Yeah, tanking is wrong, but so is Kobe coincidentally getting the "right deal" with the absolutely one player he needed, likewise Boston with Garnett, and Riley getting Shaq. It's a small world after all. But as Gordon Gecko protege Bud Fox's dad said in Wall Street, "I don't go to bed with no whores, and I don't wake up with ones either. That's how I live with myself."

    Take note David Stern and your overly status/money driven refereeing agenda(extended series, LeBron twenty free throw attempts in a playoff game when he really needs them, phantom foul on Wade to turn the series over hated anarchist/rebel Mark Cuban. There's plenty of corruption to go around in the NBA. But maybe somehow the Bulls will get a break. It has happened before.

  • Ummmmmm it is possible for us to land in the top 10. If the Bulls continue to keep losing and the Clippers start winning some games...then ya were in. Clips are 5 games behind us i believe. They just beat the Bucks and now they have the Kings and Warriors coming up. If they win those games, they are only 3 games away from us. That is...if we keep losing...which we probably wont, but we could.

    Every team in the Eastern Conference knows the Bulls have injuries. We just went from 5th to out of the playoffs within 2 weeks. Bosh,Joe Johnson,Wade all know thats why we arnt there. I dont think it would effect us from landing a superstar in the summer. Especially since they know about our injuries. Anyone else remember when David Robinson went down and the Spurs landed the #1 pick and got Duncan. Or when the Heat tanked with Wade and they landed Beasley. Its not like the Bulls are going for the #1 pick or anything, we just need to land into the top 10. Can you imagine a offseason of Xavier Henry and Chris Bosh/Amare. Thats even better. But again, I doubt it will happen. I want to see us make the playoffs.

  • In reply to Csharp:

    Doug wasn't arguing that it's not mathematically possible, he's saying it's not probable, and thus is unlikely to lead to anything good. For those arguing that it's not unreasonable that the Bulls could get the top pick again, and thus the 10th spot offers better odds, forget it. The difference between 10 and 11 is 0.3%. Not even a full percentage point. And while I realize if the bulls get into the top 10 they don't have to trade picks with the Bucks, that crazy talk needs to end now. We're not getting into the bottom 10 records, and trying to do so will really look bad to perspective free agents. If we miss the playoffs because Rose, Deng and Noah missed time, that'll hurt, but not as much as if we tried to tank down the stretch.

  • In reply to WearShades:

    Also, the lowest 1st pick probability to ever actually get the pick was 1.5%. That's about 0.4% better than the probability of the 10th pick, which we aren't going to get anyway. So for those expecting a real shot at the top pick, both the history and the math indicate you're wrong.

  • In reply to WearShades:

    Ya sorry doug...I didnt read all of your article lol

  • In reply to WearShades:

    Craig Brackins actually was going to be a lottery pick last year....but he decided to stay and his numbers dropped off a little bit. But i like the guy.

  • In reply to WearShades:

    NBA is rigged...thats pretty much the only reason why the Bulls got that top pick imo. We were a bad team in a huge city and we needed a superstar. NBA gave us D Rose so we could help make them some money. Plus he is a Chicago kid.

  • In reply to WearShades:

    I just get excited during draft time...doing research on players, etc. Something to look forward to. I guess it's just more fun having the 10th pick and not the 17th or lower.

  • In reply to WearShades:

    +2 Im the same way.

  • Tanking could be bad karma too...and i would hate to see that. There will be some decent players in the mid teens as well. Devin Ebanks,Ekpe Udoh,Craig Brackins,Damion James,Avery Bradley,Hassan Whiteside (MAYBE,Doubt it though), Greg Monroe (Doubt it though), Willie Warren,James Anderson,Gani Lawal,Kyle Singler,Solomon Alabi,Paul George. One of these guys will be in a Bulls uni this summer.

Leave a comment