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Is Derrick Rose overrated?

Noam Schiller at both teams played hard thinks so:

Now, before I am stoned to death by angry Bulls fans, allow me to
clarify what I mean by overrated. The word overrated is defined by the
free online dictionary as "to overestimate the merits of; rate too
highly."
And yet, it is usually taken to mean "absolutely
terrible." For example: I think Kobe Bryant, until this season, has been
overrated as a clutch performer. What I mean by this is that Kobe,
while a great clutch performer, had an overblown reputation as an
absolute clutch assassin, before catching up to that reputation this
season (and man, it's been mind-blowing to watch). What most people
probably see in that sentence is "I hate Kobe Bryant and want him him to
spend the rest of his life in Siberia without a coat."

Such is the case with Derrick Rose. He is currently a very good
basketball player and will hopefully evolve into an extremely good
basketball player in the near future. However, the general conception
that he has already made the leap to superstardom (as evidenced by his
All-Star appearance and by numerous "is Derrick Rose a top 5 point
guard/top 20 player" discussions throughout the web) is premature.

First, I don't think the author should be stoned.   I'm sure he's quite relieved.   I believe in any over/under rated discussion, you first have to set the bar at where a guy is rated at.

Noam doesn't really argue how many players he'd take today over Derrick Rose, but noted that his elite status is brought up by the is he a top 5 PG or a top 20 player right now discussions.  How many PGs would you take today over Derrick Rose?

Chris Paul
Deron Williams
Steve Nash
???

I don't know, I don't see how Rose isn't a top 5 PG.

How many players would you definitely take ahead of Derrick Rose.   Get back to me with a list of 20 guys who you're definitely taking ahead of him.

I agree with the overall point that those who feel Rose has arrived and is already a legitimate superstar are mistaken.   Rose isn't a top 5 player in the NBA right now, but to lower the overrated category down to those who think he's a top 5 PG or top 20 player seems to be going a bit far to me.

While I think you might be able to make a case for 20 different guys ahead of Rose, you could certainly start making the case for Rose after 12-15 guys as well.  

I can't argue with the stats, nor am I going to try.   Rose's defense has evolved to be better than he's being credited for in this article, though it's still not great.   His efficiency on the season isn't staggering, but you have to remember he was a sub .500 TS% shooter for the first couple months, so his level of play now is considerably above his season average.

What is missing from this discussion is the 'it factor'.   We love watching Rose for it, and I'm sure Noam feels the same way given he's a Rose fan.    There's an "it factor" that transcends stats.   It's about when he accumulates them, how he carries the team, when he scores his points in bunches etc..   I simply think that puts him in the top 20.   I don't think there are 20 other guys in the NBA whom I'd rather see have the ball when there is 5 minutes to go and my team is down by 6 points.

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    Overrated by whom? is the question.

    We - Chicago fans - get to see a lot more of Rose than other fans around the country. So Bulls fans get frustrated I think about Rose's perception outside Chicago. Ask your average sportcenter junkie, and Derrick is a point guard that dunks a lot. Great for highlights, but can that really help a team win?

    But we watch him game in/game out and we understand that the dunking is part of a package of athleticism, speed and size that makes him a tough guard to match up with. We understand that he can help his team win because when he's drilling the midrange J he is absolutely, 100% unguardable by anyone in this league, period.

    Just boils down to Bulls fans being smarter than the rest of the country, that's all.

  • Rondo and Westbrook are in the discussion with rose for top 5 PGs no?

  • He's averaging 22.5/6 on 51% shooting in 2010. If you look at his season stats I can see why people might question top 20, but right now I don't see how there can be much doubt. The start of the season you can clearly write off to injury.

    You look at the jumps that Chris Paul and Deron Williams made from their second to third years and I don't see why he shouldn't be getting the hype he is. If he makes the jump those guys did next year he'll not only be a top 5 point guard, he'll be a top 1 point guard.

    BTW this is coming from someone who thought Rose was vastly overhyped last year. But you look at Rose and you can't help but think 25/6 on 50%? Sounds realistic next year. Only Robinson, West, Bird, Jordan and James have done it before, but Rose is about to join them.

  • I dont think Rose is "overrated" because he is generally not considered a top PG at this time. He clearly has potential

    Rose has an awful lot to do before he is rated as a top talent. He is clearly not a clutch player yet - as he consistently misses layups (like the one against Sacto at the end which would have won the game). Only Hinrich seems to miss as many layups as Rose does.

    Distractors also point out Rose's poor shooting percentages. These will need to improve

  • In reply to bulls6:

    No offense there is more to clutch than game winners and Rose does that for the Bulls look no further than Monday and all the buckets Rose makes down the stretch that is also part of clutch. He's actually one of the better NBA players in crunch time. He didn't win but look at the Dallas game going bucket for bucket with Dirk down the stretch. He's one of the better 4th quarter players in this game right now.

  • In reply to bulls6:

    I don't know why you think Rose has poor shooting percentages. Even including his rough start, there are only six guards in the league who score in double digits and shoot a better field goal percentage. He needs to draw more fouls to get his efficiency up, but his shooting is good.

    I also don't think he's that bad at layups. He was awful at the start of the year, taking it up very weak, but that appears to have been due to injury. As the season has gone on he's improved a lot. He still needs to improve more, but he's nowhere near Kirk Hinrich level bad.

  • In reply to bulls6:

    It's kind of hard to quantify Derrick's game because he has no Stoudemire(Nash) or Boozer(Williams) or West(Chris Paul) to work with. Most top PG's have a premier or All-Star PF to run pick and rolls/pops etc. D does not.

    A top ten player and beyond is 99% of the time(you could argue somebody like Dennis(Rodman) had that type of impact at times or at least top 15-20) but 99% are virtually always someone who can score. Not only can they score, but they can score in bunches and do so with regularity in the fourth quarter and crunch time/close ball games. Sounds like Derrick Rose to me.

    But top players/scorers also carry scoring insurance. Jordan, Wade, LeBron they all can get to the line pretty much whenever they want down the stretch to give their team's that cushion/confidence/fall back.

    Currently, Derrick Rose does not know how to create contact/trips to the line. He's almost always trying to do just the opposite which is avoid contact. Granted he's been much better this season about attacking the rim, and had the guts to go inside against Howard again after that nasty fall the first time.

    But you look at a guy like Deron Williams the last time the Jazz played the Bulls. And just watching him play period. He can and does get to the line/initiates contact. His FTA's the last three seasons are 5.0, 5.6. and 5.2. Derrick's 3.1 and 4.0. Doesn't sound like a huge difference, but if you think about game after or deal with stats you know it is. Derrick's athleticism is in such a freak zone certainly better then Williams'. He has the capability of getting to the line dare I say it like an Allen Iverson who averaged Ten FTA's for years. This in my mind is the huge part of Derrick's game that is being wasted because he can do it. He's a scorer who happens to be the bonus of a PG as well. Derrick can be a big time scorer 25ppg at minimum I have no doubts.

    Also, Williams attempted 3.1 and 4.0 3-PTA's the last two seasons. Derrick? 0.9 and 0.6. Again if you're a PER fan, there is no comparison between Deron Williams and Derrick. 21.1 and 20.5 as opposed to 16 and 18.4. Plus Williams is averaging over 10 assists per game the last three seasons.

    But you get Derrick some better players and those assists will go up. And if he brings the three into his game like Williams/Paul that will help too.

    But IMO Derricks Rose is missing out on being a top ten maybe top five player if he doesn't learn how to get to the line with his freakish athleticism and lethal scoring threat to bate people at least 7 times a game. That's right. 7 times a game. And I don't mean by leaping into an open grave/the arms and trunks of bigs like Howard. No and no. Ask Wade and even he says you have to pick your spots to dunk.

    The head/shoulder fake, and bringing your arm and shoulder up to create the contact when there's the slightest jump/lean in by the defender. It is an art. Maybe overly enabled by status sensitive refs. But one that like it or not exists and has existed for at least since Jordan's time. Though Iverson at 10 FTA's per game for nearly a decade was the all time master. Wade's have been pretty high at times also.

    I hope others including the Bulls next coach will realize that along with his needing to fight/bitch/complain like the other guys/scorers, Derrick needs to learn how to create/draw contact. It's really to me tragic his low, low free throw attempts relative to his scoring presence and absolutely freakish athleticism. Certainly on the Iverson scale.

    And defensively I think he could become at least a better then average defender, and possibly much more. But that's another story/topic. I hope and pray Derrick gets the coach/mentor he needs preferably Byron Scott or Avery Johnson.

  • In reply to SamS:

    The Free Throw issue is comical to me for someone who watches every game. He SHOULD already be getting to the line more. He gets ZERO calls compared to the other elite PG. I think one major problem he has is that he is so strong (except against Howard) that he takes contact and barely moves. What he has to learn is how to "ACT" and scream because he gets hit now.

  • In reply to bulls6:

    Players who I would take over Derrick Rose:

    [In no particular order]
    1.Lebron James
    2.Kobe Bryant
    3.Kevin Durant
    4.Brandon Roy
    5.Dwayne Wade
    6.Chris Bosh
    7.Chris Paul
    8.Dirk Nowitzki
    9.Deron Williams
    10.Dwight Howard
    11.Steve Nash
    12.Carmelo Anthony
    13.Derrick Rose

    I would put Derrick in the top 13 in the NBA. He really has shown flashes of true brilliance this year. He is young and talented with a load of potential to be a great NBA player for the next decade.

  • In reply to Odes:

    Players you would take over Rose or players who are currently playing better than Rose? Players I'd take over Rose at this point in their career are Lebron, Durant, Wade, Paul, Howard and Anthony. Making Rose at least a top 10 player in my eyes right now.

  • In reply to Odes:

    Want to talk overrated - How about Brandon Roy on this list.

  • In reply to bulls6:

    I like how you mention that Rose has the "it factor." I completely agree. He's the first Bull since Jordan who I feel confident will get the job done. Gordon would come through at times, but I never believed it until the ball went through the net.
    I was watching the game the other night and Houston was cutting into the lead late. I wasn't the least bit worried as I figured Rose would take care of it.
    With Gordon, I was shocked if he came through. With Rose (like Jordan), I'm shocked if he doesn't.
    p.s. I'm not saying Rose is Jordan or anywhere close.

  • Rose is awesome, he is evolving so fast before our eyes and has given our franchise great hope going into the future, hopefully a top free agent will come to Chicago so we can be an elite team again! Rose is a top player, but I think you need to look at consistency, day in day out, year after year because there are so many good young PGs now. Not taking away from Rose by anymeans. I'm a huge fan of Rose's Memphis teamate in Sacto a beast by the name of Tyreke Evans. Memphis sure had a duo of beastly PGs the past 2 years! Rose needs to work on his defense, fight through screens, and carry the team when they need it...to evolve into the upper achelon of NBA greatness! I think you need to look at 1 position only or maybe PG/SG and say who is the best there not lump a player within the entire NBA regardless of position.

  • fb_avatar
    In reply to smiley:

    He definitely needs to become more of a factor on defense. If he says he wants guys to get their sleep before coming to play DRose then he's got to become an intimidating defender for that to happen.

  • In reply to smiley:

    Doug,
    Yeah I agree with you on having "it". Not many other guys I want with the ball late in the 4th . How many times has Rose carried our asses in crunch time? These are things hard to quantify with stats.
    He needs to work on D (and for some reason when it really counts he shows he can absolutely be a solid defender), and his jumpshot needs improvement...but has been substantially better the 2nd have of the season, to the point where he's even starting to shoot 3's.

    He never mentions Rose's tendancy to defer until he has to. He also seems to miss the countless times Rose gets his teammates open shots which they brick.

    His "overated" benchmark seems a bit wobly. Id agree with doug that I cant think of any other than Williams / Paul / Ronda....Ok Im running out.

    Top 20? Again, after about 15 or so I cant hardly think of anyone else Id want on my team going forward.

    No He's not "Elite" right now, but I really dont think anyone who actually watches him thinks he is. What we do see is a guy with that "it" factor that just has the ability to things 98% of the league doesn't. Will he be elite? When you can read the future let me know, I'll be asking you for some lotto numbers.

  • Read the article yesterday....Another case of where actually watching every game that Rose has played in instead of looking at a stat card is helpful.

    If you look at a while before AllStar break, till now, he's been dominant. Before he was pretty slow off with injurys.

    You can fart stats in my face all you want, but if you actually watch the kid play, you cant help but think, man this kid is getting really really really damn good. There are a lot of intangibles that require actually watching the game. At one point he's starts comparing him to Kurty....ok, thats where I know you dont actually watch the games. Stats etc are hard to come by on a brick shooting team as well.

    Also, anyone who has been actually watching knows his pullup midrange jumpshot is starting to get deadly, and he's been a repeated 4th quarter closer all season. He's put this crappy Bulls team on his back so many times now I lose track.

    Everyone would do better off watching games rather than being stat whores. Stats have their place, but there are so many intangibles you cant show with stats. Elite? Probably not, but he's getting there. My brother is a life long hard core Jazz fan...Every time he see's Rose play he gushes over him and says how much more upside the kid had than Williams even (who I consider the best PG in the league right now). Will he be top 5? Dunno. But Id already consider Rose top 20 in his 2nd year on a crud team.

  • In reply to Vohaul79:

    I couldn't agree more on the need for people to watch games. From about the 20 game point on Rose has been ridiculously good. You take the two parts of the season where he was hurt and not playing and the start playing hurt and his numbers would be off the chart good.

    He needs to play better defense to reach elite status. He is still very weak defensively game in and game out. With his speed and strength there is just no excuse for it other than not focusing or unwillingness to do it. But I think we will see that jump next year based on some recent encouraging efforts.

  • In reply to Vohaul79:

    what... no one thinks rodney stucky is a better pg than rose. i think there's a consensus that stucky..is a. not a pg.
    b sucky.

  • In reply to pinkizdead:

    Come to Michigan and listen to how people say he is the STAR of the Piston's team. Listen to them tell you how its time to get rid of Rip and Prince and build around Stucky at the point. Then tell me no one thinks hes a pg.

  • In reply to Vohaul79:

    Until Rose is getting fellated on the court by the refs like Kobe, Wade, Dirk, James and even Billups and Rondo........he's not over-rated as nothing is given to him. Fans might over rate him, but they're fans. Fans over rate everything. Just my two cents.

  • In reply to Vohaul79:

    Devin Harris belongs no where near this discussion when his team has 8 wins and u have only had one good season..Rondo is way overrated..how hard is it to put up numbers when the other team doesn't guard you plus he has two legit big men and and two hall of fame wing players...his on the ball defense is just as bad as derrick the only difference is that Boston is a good defensive team and good defensive teams get the benefit calls from the refs there for rondo can just stand on the side of his guy and reach in for the ball every play..The Celtics are title contenders wit rondo switch him and rose and Boston would be favorites to win and the bulls would be the Nets....Westbrook is a decent player but not a good point guard i wouldn't put him anywhere near rose unless we were comparing vertical leaps

  • fb_avatar

    National media? No. National fans? Yeah, I think so.

  • In reply to Redwhitenblack:

    Living hour from staples center and Bulls fan :) I'm your national fan. Chicago>LA

  • In reply to Redwhitenblack:

    At the moment I wouldn't even think twice about putting him into the top 20 just because his defense even anywhere near close to any of the stars that would be in that catagory. Considering the fact that defense is mainly all effort (Derrick has the height so that's not an issue) in terms of potential best players in the league based on talent I'd put him in the top 5 maybe top 2 or 3....So I wouldn't trade him for anyone in the league at the moment considering his age and potential.

  • In reply to Redwhitenblack:

    (Trading him being hypothetical by the way)

  • In reply to Redwhitenblack:

    I would say Rose is top 5 easily. Steve Nash isnt the player he used to be. In fact everytime the Bulls play them...Rose kills Nash. I would say Top PG's are this...

    Paul (Not right now because of his injury)
    D Williams
    Rose
    Rondo
    Billups

  • I don't think Rondo would be effective as "the man" either. But they are young effective PGs with tons of upside. Similar to rose.

  • In reply to senrad:

    rondo is a fancier steve nash without the offensive game..

    derrick rose will prove to be a top 3 or 4 point guard next year if we get a team thats his suited and with byron scott.. rose is def a top 20 player though.. and wins make the player look better so if he wins alot next year or gets into the third or second rose will look like a top 15 next year.. rose i believe isnt overhype at all..i think its just fine..

  • I think a lot of people that say he's overrated are actually underrating him because he's not leading a winning team. Because he hasn't battled and won in the playoffs. Because he has not YET made the Bulls a dangerous team or a contender. Certainly he's still developing but the fact that this is a common argument for a SOPHOMORE should be enough. I think he's a top 5 PG and top 20 player, right now. In my opinion, the ONLY players I would pick before him if I were building a team from scratch are The King and Durantula. That's it. Not Kobe, not D-Wade, not CP3 (yeah, I said it), not Dwight Howard. Is Rose better than them? Hell no. Or should I say, not yet. But at this point Rose isn't that far off and should surpass most of them as a champion. I give only Kobe the edge, but I can see a future where the NBA is highlighted by a "LBJ team" vs "Rose team" rivalry a la Lakers-Spurs (2000s), Bulls-Knicks ('90s) and Lakers-Celtics ('80s).

    There are only two reasons that this "is Rose overrated" argument is even an argument. One, he's still developing. For God sake, this kid is finishing only his second year and should be a college junior. He has at least another year of significant growth in his game. He's losing 2-5 assists per game just given his teammates propensity to miss shots. He's losing 2-5 points a game by non-foul calls. And until recently, he's losing 3 points per game by not attempting an extra 3-pt shot or two consistently. And he shouldn't even be the team's leading scorer. If over the summer he can work on becoming a respectable defender, add a consistent 3-pt shot and learn to make the free throw line his second home: end of argument.

    Two, he is not yet leading a winning team. Yes, the Bulls are currently sub-.500, but that's not what I mean. The Bulls do have some talent on the team but sometimes it's hard to find. Once the Bulls improve it's team play with consistency, health and add a legitimate #1 scorer Rose's impact will be reflected in the W column. That's the only stat that makes this argument a moot point.

  • In reply to jamatokwu:

    If Derrick can make the free throw line his second home, he will be a 25ppg minimum scorer, and a legit big boy closer. Guys that know they have that insurance of getting to the line points at game's end not coincidentally can game winning J's with way less pressure on them because of the line/points guaranteed/insurance.

  • In reply to jamatokwu:

    I can see Derrick not being a top five point guard in some peoples minds. Of course they are wrong but if you take Derrick out of the equation look at the top point guards...

    1. Chris Paul
    2. Deron Williams
    3. Steve Nash
    4. Chauncey Billups
    5. Rajon Rondo
    6. Devin Harris
    7. Jason Kidd

    Now you can see how it could be argued that Derrick might not be top five because there are six VERY talented players right there. The think is I see Rose as better than Rondo or Harris and younger than Nash, Kidd, or Billups. Those factors put him at second or third on my top five.

    As far as in the league. If I could choose one superstar to build a team around the list would be as follows;

    1. Lebron James
    2. Kobe Bryant
    3. Carmelo Anthony
    4. Derrick Rose
    5. Chris Bosh

    So that is where I stand on the matter. I believe Derrick Rose may be over rated by some on line but I also believe that he is under rated by the media out side of the Chicago area. I mean here in Michigan the media thinks Rodney Stuckey is a better point guard than Derrick Rose. Crazy right!

  • In reply to CPBuff22:

    I don't think there is a team out there that still thinks Devin Harris belongs in that group of point guards. Certainly shouldn't be ahead of Kidd.

  • Rose's Pros:
    1. His strength/speed is unbelievable. I guess he is probably the best PG in terms of strength.
    2. His jumper is pretty good
    Cons:
    1. His team. There is nobody on the team who is a consistent 3 point or mid range shooter. That is hurting his whole game. He needs a Joe Johnson/Chris Bosh/Amare/Boozer desperately. Otherwise, his game will not go up fast.
    Obviously, great players make others better. But Chris Paul, Deron Williams haven't taken their teams to any NBA finals yet after all these years.

    The author is right that Derrick Rose is over-rated or to put in other words, his grade is still incomplete. Without a legit consistent All-Star next to him, it is tough to grade him.

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