It's highly unlikely that Chris Bosh is traded at the deadline this year. At least, I think it's highly unlikely, perhaps the Raptors will prove me wrong. However, there's a danger for both sides in the trade. The Raptors are obviously going to lose the most talent and not get back anything equivalent, losing their opportunity to build around Bosh. The other team is going to take over Bosh for half a year and then have to worry about whether he'll bolt in the summer. Bosh won't sign an extension right away, not when he can get an extra year this summer.
So that being said, what would you give up for Chris Bosh right now, knowing that if you get him right now and the team stinks that he'll likely leave us for Miami in the summer.
Definite No's for me:
Maybe's for me:
Definite Yes's for me:
That's right, to me, the interesting debate centers around would you include Noah in a package for Bosh right now. This isn't to say that Noah is such a hot ticket item that the Raptors would swap the two straight up. He's not. However, he's the only long term valuable piece on the roster outside of Derrick Rose to me.
If you traded Deng and Hinrich for Bosh and Bosh left, then you could rebuild with that cap room. If you traded Salmons or Tyrus then you'd figure they were going to leave anyway. If you gave up Johnson, Gibson, future picks, or Asik, then you'd be losing out on a generally low ceiling younger player.
Those are all things you could live with.
If you trade away Joakim Noah and come up empty handed then you've actually lost a piece of your future. Noah's cap hold isn't big for the next year, so you aren't gaining any immediate cap advantage either. You're losing someone whom you hope is part of the solution.
Do you do that for a guy who might not come back? If you knew Chris Bosh was coming back, it'd be a no brainer. It's not a comparison.
The end answer to me depends on how you answer these questions:
"How likely is Bosh to stay if we have his bird rights but miss the playoffs?"
"Is Chris Bosh worth the full 6 year max contract?"
"Are you willing to go into the luxury tax in a few years?"
If you believe the answer to the first question is likely, then you absolutely do the trade.
If you can answer yes to the second question then you absolutely do the trade, because I think the extra money is enough to push him over the edge even if things don't immediately look good [or in other words I'm sort of answering the first question with the second question, I cheat like that].
If you answer no to the money, but answer yes to the tax then you still do the trade, because if you're willing to pay the tax then you can overpay Bosh who will absolutely improve your team's fortunes.
Ultimately, I'm not sure Chris Bosh is a 20+ million dollar a year player. I'm also fairly certain the Bulls aren't paying the luxury tax. Still, I take the chance. I take the chance on greatness, because getting Bosh at the deadline may not work out, it may make things far worse, but it has the potential to make you far better.
So anything but Rose for Bosh is what I'm putting on the table. Stupid as it seems, I just needed to think about it. [side note, if we call up Toronto and say anything for Bosh but Noah, they'd say no].