As my buddy Coldfish on realgm used to always say, it's the schedule stupid. The bulls, 16-20, have played reasonably well lately. They've won 6 of their past 9, and I think all Bulls fans could live with a 66% winning percentage even if a few of those losses were against sub par teams. Unfortunately, you can't play the crap forever, nor can you play at home forever.
The Bulls schedule has now crossed back over into the difficult territory. They now have four more road games on the schedule left than home games, and they've just played a bunch of the weaklings on their schedule. When the bulls were sub-par with the toughest schedule in the NBA, it was easy to hold out some hope. Sagarin has their schedule ranked 16th now, and don't look, but it's about to get a lot worse.
@Boston
Washington
@Golden State
@LA Clippers
@Phoenix
@Houston
@San Antonio
@Oklahoma City
@New Orleans
There are some weak teams in that list (Washington, Golden State), but the Bulls aren't exactly road warriors (3-13). Even the perennial doormat clippers are 17-18 and may get Blake Griffin back. The Hornets have been struggling on the road, but are 14-3 at home, and the Texas two step has been deadly for years [at least we see save Dallas for a later date, I guess].
Seriously, how many wins do you see on that schedule? I'd call the Bulls underdogs in every road game, even the one against Golden State. I expect them to beat Washington, and then what?
A one and seven performance over this span would doom this team. They'd be dropped 10 games under .500, and it's hard to imagine them bouncing back from that deficit. I think a one and seven finish dooms this team to the 07/08 fate. This is the time the Bulls need to step up and change who they are. They're 3-13 on the road, but they need to do better.
In order to remain in playoff contention, the Bulls need to win at least two other road games. A three and five finish in those eight games wouldn't be awesome by any stretch, but it's enough to tread water given how bad the East is. It's enough to put themselves in position to fight back later.
And how about doing better? Could they break even? Could they win five and improve their position? I don't see how. I don't see them beating these teams on the road. I'm a doubter right now, a doubter hoping to be proven wrong.
Final prediction: 2-6 over the next 8.
Filed under: Uncategorized
Tags: chicago bulls, road trip, trouble looming
Great stuff Doug. I see 1-7 and a lot more "Fire Vinny" talk.
I'm going to look on the bright side this time.
Boston will be without Wallace and Garnett on Thurs. If Rose can outplay Ronde, I like the Bulls chances of winning that game. After that, Washington, Golden State, LAC are all win-able games for the Bulls.
My desire is see the Bulls get to 20-20 on the 20th of January. As a fan, that would make me very happy. At that point, if they can sneak in 2 or 3 victories out of the 5 left on the trip, then I think they will be in good shape.
Just looking at the last 5 games on the trip.
San Antonio is tough, but they are also old. So, maybe the Bulls can run them to death, so to speak, and win that game. Houston is always a death trap for the Bulls, so I'm not expecting a win, but who knows. Phoenix is kind of struggling right now. They lost to Miami at home and barely beat Milwaukee yesterday without Michael Redd and Scott Skiles. So, you never know. OKC needs a little payback, that's all I'll say about them. And New Orleans is another tough one, because they play great at home and it's the final game of the trip.
Let's see what happens. It all starts with Boston on Thurs.
Honestly, one thing(among many) that really killed the Bulls on that last west coast debacle was Noah getting smoked by the legit bigs out west. And I'm not ripping on Joakim. If he puts on 15 more pounds on his lower body he could be a game changing force: a Camby/Rodmanesque "star" if you will. Yeah, I said it.
I'd say if the coaches(Bob and Pete) can realize that teams once they throw the ball inside are trying to exploit the lighter Noah, and the ball is not coming back out again, so double down and use their predictability to our advantage to steal/block/disrupt and get the board. The old Bulls used to do this to perfection. If the Bulls do this, and help Joakim on the glass as well when they converge, I'd say with an emerging Salmons and Rose they could win three maybe four games on this trip.
I'll say this though. If Boston give us another beat down on Thursday, and Salmons once again goes back to not playing well, then all bets are off.
Sammy,
No-Shot Noah took 3 years to get into shape and he is still a weakling! Joakim track record says he is too lazy to work hard enough to get significantly stronger! Noah can "not" compete with the big & strong guys.
If th Bulls had a big time center what would No-Shot Noah do, he is offensively challenged and nothing more than a back up!
No-Shot is a core player like Hinrich!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I am fairly certain that Mr. Happy is really just another of Alex's multiple personalities masquerading as someone else. Just replace no shot Noah, and circle dribbling Hinrich with fat and lazy James Johnson
GET THIS:
I talked to Sam Smith this morning and he said that the Bulls and Wizards have had trade talks about Brendan Haywood, but the Wizards want Joakim Noah in the deal.
My response is, "What are they smoking?" Don't they know that drugs and guns are a bad combination. When they come back down from their HIGH, they should look into this deal.
To Bulls: Nick Young, Brendan Haywood and Dominic McGuire
To Wizards: Tyrus Thomas, James Johnson (or A.Gray) and Jannero Pargo
http://www.realgm.com/src_checktrade.php?tradeid=5379228
It's a pretty fair deal that gives each team what they need. The Bulls get a younger SG and veteran BIG-man and the Wizards get money and trade flexibility, if they decide to trade off Jamison and/or Butler.
Let's assume this deal gets made.
http://www.realgm.com/src_checktrade.php?tradeid=5379228
Here's what each team would look like.
WASHINGTON WIZARDS:
PG - Arenas (assuming he's not in jail), Boykins and Crittenton
SG - Foye, Miller and Stevenson
SF - Butler and Johnson
PF - Jamison and Thomas
C - McGee, Blatche and Oberto
CHICAGO BULLS:
PG - Rose and Hunter
SG - Young and Hinrich (he can play both PG/SG)
SF - Deng, Salmons and McGuire
PF - Gibson, Miller and Gray
C - Noah, Haywood and James
I think a trade like this gets the Bulls the 5th seed.
Assuming this trade were made I would start Haywood at the five and put Noah at the four with Taj coming off the bench. Miller backing up Brenda.
BTW, I take a back seat to no one in hating Tyrus ever since that awful night he was traded for Aldridge. However, having said that (sorry Larry David), I think the Wiz very well could get the best player out of the deal over time. If some coach could ever get Tyrus to play within his limits he could surprise. Odds are against this tho IMO.
Explain to me why the Bulls would ever do this deal, acknowledging that the Bulls front office doesn't share your irrational hatred for Tyrus and James Johnson. First, the only guys that have deals past this season are Young and Johnson. Young's deal costs 1 mil more than James Johnson's next year and 2 mil more the year after that, meaning the deal may impact our flexibility the next two years. Plus Young is 2 years older than Johnson and has barely developed into a rotation player in his 3 years. I absolutely don't get the obsession with giving up on Johnson 35 games into his rookie season when he's 22 and only getting 10 minutes a game. He hasn't been good by any measure, but he's shown flashes and it's way too early to write him off. I wonder how many trades you had Noah in after his first 35 games.
As for the expiring guys, why do we need Haywood--a light scoring center who can rebound--when we already have a younger, better light scoring center who can rebound playing 36+ minutes and a veteran backup center? Realistically, how many minutes would Haywood even get? 10? No matter what you think of Tyrus, I'd still rather have him 100 times out of 100 over Haywood, especially when we only have one other legit PF on the roster and he's a rookie. At some point this season Tyrus is going to play meaningful minutes for the Bulls, something that cannot be said about Haywood. There is no way Haywood is an upgrade over Tyrus for the Bulls.
I have no problem with trading Tyrus at this point, because he clearly won't be back next season. But there is no point in trading Tyrus unless you get something valuable in return. This proposed trade makes us no better this year, adds additional salary the next two years, and makes us marginally better AT BEST in the future (that is, unless you are Nick Young's agent). No matter how mad Bulls fans are at Tyrus, I will guarantee you that a lot of teams would be interested in him. At the very least, we should be able to get a draft pick for him, and at best, we should be able to use him in a deal to unload a bad contract and/or get back a decent piece without giving up one of our own. Any deal involving Tyrus that results in the Bulls taking on even $1 more in salary next season is completely illogical.
Nick Young is a nice young Shooting Guard, who makes for great insurance, if the Bulls can't get their hands on DWADE or Joe Johnson.
If that made that deal, I'm guessing they would hope Salmons opts out. If not, I'm sure they would work hard to trade Hinrich.
BTW...
The obsession with trading Thomas and Johnson is simple. I don't see how the Bulls can be all that successful having two young players at PF and two young players at SF.
I think a balance of veterans and younger players at each position works better.
Rory Shea,
If you go look at the rosters of the TOP teams in the league (Lakers, Celtics, Spurs, Cavs, etc.), you'll will find they have a young player and a veteran at each position.
The Bulls can't say that. It's no wonder why they are MEDIOCRE. It's not productive to have two young SF's and two young PF's in the same rotation. The Bulls need better balance.
The top teams in the league aren't there because the specifically have a veteran and young player at each position, if that's even true. They are there because they each have a top 10 player. Period.
Even buying into that theory, the proposed trade doesn't accomplish your mandatory 1 veteran/1 young player balance. Trading away Tyrus for Haywood leaves with 1 young PF and 0 veteran PF, with 2 veteran backup centers. And in any event, neither Tyrus or Haywood will be with the team next year.
The bigger issue is that these proposed trades (Tyrus and Johnson for bench players #1 and #2 from Was, NO, or NJ) are completely irrelevant to becoming an actual contender. The only thing that matters for becoming a contender is acquiring an actual all-star. Until that happens, you can trade for as many veteran backups as you want and it won't matter.
Unless they can get Chris Bosh via trade at the deadline, adding another All-Star won't come until the summer.
Therefore, the Bulls should focus on winning this season by adding another SG and another veteran BIG.
I think Nick Young and Brendan Haywood can be had.
I also think Terrence Williams and Josh Boone can be had.
Right now, Johnson isn't playing alot or that good, neither is Pargo and Thomas has been demoted.
Why not try and pull a trade involving those 3 guys, if it is COST EFFICIENT and helps them win more games?
From what I understand the Bulls can make a few different moves, in order to have enough money to offer a MAX deal to a top free-agent.
#1.) Salmons can opt out...unpredictable
#2.) Renounce all their free-agents, including Tyus Thomas...do-able
#3.) They can trade Kirk Hinrich or Luol Deng...unpredictable
#4.) They can trade James Johnson and their #1 Pick away...do-able
So, as you can see they don't have to dump Salmons or Hinrich at the deadline. They can instead make a SMART trade, such as getting rid of Tyrus Thomas and James Johnson for more productive players, and worry about 2010 free-agency after the playoffs.
Maybe it turns out to be trouble for the opposing teams. Yes, we've had trouble on the road. In fact, we've had trouble all season until we got Tyrus and Kirk back healthy. Since then, we havn't won all our games, but we've played a couple of levels better. Plus, I think the Bulls are starting to play their best ball of the season.
I don't think people fully appreciate the defensive presence Tyrus brings to the floor. He literally changes the game just by being out there challenging shots and using his length to get deflections, steals and easy run outs that are frequently game changing plays. That is why trade talk of him is somewhat puzzling. Last night, I could count at least 10 possesions that he stopped the other team many times led directly to Bulls points on the other end. Really, you can't overstate that kind of impact because it basically equates to about a 15-20 point swing--two they don't get and two that we do get. He makes mistakes--he's young--but he just needs to understand that he can't aspire to be MJ on the court. Instead, he needs to be Rodman. he did that last night and he has to continue to learn his niche. He does that and he's a permanent member of the Bulls and a starter. I like the way the team is trending. Stay tuned
DROSE is on his way to being an All-Star, that seems evident. I do agree that the Bulls need to add another SUPERSTAR to their roster, but that probably can't happen until July.
Therefore, I'm worried about WINNING this year. The 5th Seed in the Eastern Conference is there for the taking, if the Bulls can just add a SG and BIG to their roster.
Given what is going on in Washington and New Jersey, I might look for trades in those two cities, if I were John Paxson.
Who exactly are our 2 young SF's?
Have you looked at Deng lately, he looks and plays like Greg Odens older brother, or Robert Parishs' slightly younger brother.
anyone on his second contract is in his prime and not a young player, he is a full scale veteran.
While Johnson may indeed be a bust, trading him before he even has a chance to play for a real NBA coach is not wise, especially when recieving nothing of note in return.
You make far too much sense to be arguing with Mr Happy.
However, at this point I might seriously consider Thomas straight up for Haywood. We could use the extra size, and it frees up Noah to play more power forward against the teams with true centers.
It gets us something for Thomas and clears up cap room for next summer, win win for the Bulls. It allows the Wiz to trade Jamison and plug in Thomas.
Haywood is a servicable NBA center, just not all the time, and might be signable at a reasonable contract after the summers free agent bonanza
And Tyrus has every reason to pissed at the Bulls. He should absolutely be starting right now. This is our last chance to find out about him.
While I am not hopefull, I still wanted him to get the chance to start and play 36 minutes a night for at least half a season before we finally dump him.
Unfortunatley Del Bimbo is also a moron who coaches scared and starts Taj Gibson. Paxson should have the balls to tell Del Bimbo to start Tyrus or pack his bags immediately. This would be in the best interests of the Bulls, not Thomas.
We are simply a clueless organization, almost as clueless as Tyrus is as a basketball player.
I agree about keeping our assets for a potential blockbuster at the deadline, and I think that is what the Bulls are planning to do, which is why I am not buying into any of the current rumors for marginal deals.
I would say that even if the Bulls are done with him, showcasing him for 36 minutes a night for 30-40 games might just entice someone to buy into his potential, thus increasing his trade value.
There always seems to have been a market for the Tyrus type of player, see Stromile Swift and others of that ilk.
I think that the Bulls are right about Thomas, always thought so, but they have shot themselves in the foot with regard to the way they have developed(not) him.