Since there's been some discussion of different bulls salaries, I've compiled up some tables of the various bulls salary situations. I haven't plugged in cap numbers, as we don't know where the cap will fall. I'd guess around 55 million based on the original 50-54 million league estimate and the recent note that league ticket revenues are only down 1.7 percent vs an expected 6-7% dip.
They'll lose a lot more on sponsorship than ticket sales on any deals that weren't locked in, so there should still be a greater than 1.7% drop, but it should be better than the league's original estimate.
I'd like to pronounce a few beliefs that I'm not certain of, a cap expert can correct me if I'm wrong. Even though the minimum roster hold is that of a minimum rookie salary, the team can sign veteran minimum players after securing their player with cap space.
Also,
I've included enough roster holds for a 12 man roster even though teams are required to carry 13 players for all intents and purposes. The reading of the CBA according to the CBA salary cap FAQ says the roster charge applies for the number of spots less than 12 though, so I believe this is correct.
| No Salmons opt out No trades | |
|---|---|
| Luol Deng | $11,345,000 |
| Kirk Hinrich | $9,000,000 |
| John Salmons | $5,808,000 |
| Derrick Rose | $5,546,160 |
| Joakim Noah | $3,128,536 |
| James Johnson | $1,713,600 |
| Taj Gibson | $1,117,680 |
| 15th pick (guess) | $1,443,300 |
| Roster hold | $473,604 |
| Roster hold | $473,604 |
| Roster hold | $473,604 |
| MAX FA Cost | $16,568,908 |
| Total: | $57,091,996 |
| With Salmons opt out or trade for Expiring | |
|---|---|
| Luol Deng | $11,345,000 |
| Kirk Hinrich | $9,000,000 |
| Derrick Rose | $5,546,160 |
| Joakim Noah | $3,128,536 |
| James Johnson | $1,713,600 |
| Taj Gibson | $1,117,680 |
| 15th pick (guess) | $1,443,300 |
| Roster hold | $473,604 |
| Roster hold | $473,604 |
| Roster hold | $473,604 |
| Roster hold | $473,604 |
| Max FA Cost | $16,568,908 |
| Total: | $51,757,600 |
| With Salmons and Hinrich gone | |
|---|---|
| Luol Deng | $11,345,000 |
| Derrick Rose | $5,546,160 |
| Joakim Noah | $3,128,536 |
| James Johnson | $1,713,600 |
| Taj Gibson | $1,117,680 |
| 15th pick (guess) | $1,443,300 |
| Roster hold | $473,604 |
| Roster hold | $473,604 |
| Roster hold | $473,604 |
| Roster hold | $473,604 |
| Roster hold | $473,604 |
| Max FA Cost | $16,568,908 |
| Total: | $43,231,204 |
Obviously, in the first example, we're unlikely to have enough room to make a max FA an offer, however, if we swap out James Johnson and our 1st round pick for cap space we might make it depending on the cap. You could save about 2.1 million or so replacing them with roster holds.
In the final example, you also are shy of being able to make an offer of two max FAs, but not terribly shy. If you work one of the deals as a S&T and count that one second so you only need to match 25% of the salary and include Johnson + the pick you could probably make it depending on where the cap falls. I don't think the Bulls would trade both guys, but it's not completely unfeasible that they'd trade Hinrich and have Salmons opt out in the summer.
Anyway, hopefully these numbers will help clear up some of the 2010 salary information.
Filed under: Uncategorized
Tags: 2010 plan, cap complications, chicago bulls, potential salaries
Hey Doug,
Thanks for working that up. I've been playing around with some numbers wondering if it's possible to sign a guy like Boozer with Salmons opting in and maybe resigning Tyrus. Figure we might need Tyrus or else we lose an athletic body in the frontcourt.
Question: are all the players there on the cap or are some on exceptions? I know there are exceptions for rookie salary and vets are any of them in play here? Could they be in play for a guy like Tyrus or someone we bring in midseason?
That's good stuff Doug.
However, I'm more concerned about this team going after the 5th seed in the Eastern Conference playoff standings this season.
I would welcome another trade, if it involved Tyrus Thomas, James Johnson, Jannero Pargo and/or Jerome James and not Kirk Hinrich or John Salmons.
Chris Bosh seems unlikely. Amar'e Stoudemire seems doubtful. David Lee seems unavailable. Carlos Boozer seems up in the air. Brendan Haywood seems over-valued. Marcus Camby seems on the fence.
At the end of the trade-deadline, the roster could remain unchanged.
If that happens, then I could see the Bulls doing whatever it takes to make room for one MAX CONTRACT (Dwayne Wade). That probably means getting rid of Tyrus Thomas and perhaps James Johnson.
If they add Dwayne Wade and find a cheap PF to replace Tyrus Thomas, they could be very good, NBA Finals good.
Good article Doug.
This is why the Bulls need to push for a trade of Deng + Salmons or Kirk plus and expiring for a big name right now. Of course there will be others involved...but those are the main pieces. Once you get those salaries out of here...you still have big money for 2010. Deng + Salmons + Tyrus OR draft pick(s) FOR Amare/Bosh and fill in. Then in 2010 you still have money to go after Wade,Bron,Gay,Joe Johnson exc..
I'm seeing Tyrus listed as a RFA with a $6.25 mil option for '10-11, which is a pretty significant cap hold. That would imply that the bulls will have to make a decision on his future with the team unless they dump Hinrich and Salmons' contracts, doesn't it? They could also renounce TT's rights and sign him later to the MLE for about the same, but that's risky and unlikely.
I think they could dump Salmons and still make the playoffs, but I don't think they could afford to dump Hinrich and still make it unless they got a very capable replacement in the deal.
Bulls need to beat Miami to the punch if you want Wade. They have a ton of money to spend also. Bulls need to get better so we can make a pitch at Wade that is unbelievably hard for him to turn down. If we dont he will just stay and bring Bosh to Maimi. If the Bulls can get Amare now...Noah,Rose and STAT would be very hard to turn down if your D Wade. His hometown,our team, and the Bulls money would be excellent for Wade.
The tables on available MAX FA money based on those scenarios Salmons opt out etc. are helpful and appreciated. To Doug's last point about upgrading this year's roster to lose out on a Max FA this summer I think we all can agree. If you go after Bosh, Stoudemire, or Boozer now they can just dump you at season's end. One dynamic effecting the Bulls' desirability to attract big name players this summer is changing. Even if the Bulls continue with the current roster, and finish right at or a game or two below .500 if, and I say if, D-Rose keeps blowing up becoming a 22ppg or so scorer(the rest of the season - not his overall avg.) with better all around game lower TO's etc., then I can see us potentially attracting a Bosh etc. Especially if the performance/energy level of Noah and Gibson can remain high/healthy enough to stay on the floor. Those three players/factors to me are important ones in appearing as a potential contender with the big upgrade of that Max player.
Sorry for the double post. But in that last game against San Antonio I noticed Hinrich covering Tony Parker. I know he still got his/had a good game, but to me with today's rules so often it's the penetration by the PG that kills you. Especially true when your playing a Parker, Williams etc. That's why I like having our best guard defender Hinrich playing them. I know Rose got burned a couple of times on drives by the bigger Hill, but he also made some nice plays. I don't know what you guys think, but to me, I think the Bulls are better served with Hinrich covering the other team's PG unless it's a D-Wade or Kobe. Otherwise, I think the damage done by PG's is minimized greatly by Kirk, and puts Derrick in a better situation to be successful at both ends. Really other then with top SG's(Wade or Kobe) or somone who goes a lot in the post, isn't Derrick's tremendous athleticism and leaping better put to use covering SG's?
If you go straight to exceptions what happens to the renounced cap space? Are you still on the hook for it somehow? Or maybe they'll just send all extra cap space to unicef in the next cba.
If the Bulls trade for anyone named Amare,Bosh or Boozer they deffinetly going to make sure that they commit to them far past this year before they actually make the trade. And i dont see that as a problem since the Bulls future is looking really good right now.
Your pitch is get a better team in here. Bulls are a decent team...but in the Western conference we wouldnt even be in the playoffs right now. As it is now Wade will just bring some one into Miami rather then come to Chicago. But if he see's that the Bulls are going to be a better team then what he has in Miami...Wade is going to want the ring and most likely come here if we have the money and the team.
Deng + Salmons + Tyrus OR Draft pick(s) For Amare and fill in. How is that a bad trade??? Talent in Deng...expiring contract in Salmons and another expiring in Tyrus. Kerr has shown interest in Deng and Tyrus over the years. If they dont want Tyrus...give them draft picks. Phoenix has openly said they want young talent,expiring contracts and draft picks. That trade right there is everything there asking for. You do that trade you still have money for 2010 to go after Wade.
If we get rid of Salmons and Hinrich, what do you think of Max FA + David Lee? Maybe Joe Johnson (even though he is probably not worth a max contract, he will demand one). David Lee is going to be around 11-12 a year and he is pretty good. A lineup of Rose/Joe Johnson/Deng/Lee/Noah could be top 3 in the east depending on how the 2010 free agent circus works out.
That's a very balanced and more realistic lineup. This team would space the floor, run the court, and rebound. They'd need another interior defender and a shooter on the bench.
Always nice to see someone actually do the math, rather than just trust the national media, which is reporting that any number of teams will have max cap room, even though several of them absolutely won't.
While I'm on the subject, Doug, you should really email this page to Bill Simmons, as he (based on his last few podcasts/columns) seems to be under the impression that all the Bulls need to do to get under the cap by $33 million (thus enabling them to sign both LeBron and Bosh) is trade Hinrich for expirings. Frankly, it's embarrassing.
Also, I had a question for you: what are the odds Salmons opts out. Bulls fans I talk to insist that he will, seemingly because they want it to be true. However, it doesn't seem plausible that he'd leave $5.8 million on the table when he most assuredly won't be getting that on the open market. Any chance you could give me an explanation of the situation that constitutes more than a wave of the hand reference to the new CBA?
Can you do the table over again now that Salmons and Thomas have been traded?
I know that all of the players recieved in the trades have expiring contracts, but does that basically mean that we basically have situation #2 above..."With Salmons opt out or trade for Expiring"?
Do you think that we should have unloaded Hinrich?
Also, I'm my wildest dreams, this would be the next dynasty for 2010 free agent signings...
Best...
+ LeBron James
+ Chris Bosh
OR
+ Dwayne Wade
+ Chris Bosh
OR...
+ Joe Johnson
+ Chris Bosh
Next Best...
+ LeBron James
+ Carlos Boozer
OR...
+ Dwayne Wade
+ Carlos Boozer
OR...(my "realistic" prediction)
+ Joe Johnson
+ Carlos Boozer