Awhile back, I thought I wrote a long piece on what metrics Derrick Rose would need to hit in order for us to rationally believe that he still had perennial all-star potential. I searched for said piece, but was unable to find it. So I'm left with this thought which was largely a centerpoint of the piece.
Typically, a player who goes on to become a perennial all-star has a PER over 17 in his second year. You'll find extraordinarily few counter examples to this theory. The idea is pretty simple, if you aren't showing at least a 17 PER in your second year, you're probably in trouble. Even guys coming out of HS who went on to become stars were able to do this.
At the time I thought I wrote this, Derrick Rose's PER was sitting around 15.5. I was disturbed by this trend, his low scoring efficiency, passiveness, and other facets of his game.
If I were to list things Derrick needed to improve this past summer [and I'm sure I did somewhere], then the list would look something like:
1) Becoming more aggressive and playing with a carry the team mentality
2) Drawing contact at the hoop rather than avoiding contact at the hoop
3) Playing better defense
4) Range and accuracy of his jumpshot
5) Improvement of court vision
Through the early part of the season, we hadn't seen big improvements in these areas, however, since sometime in mid December, we've seen a pretty big uptick in several of them.
Issue #1 is solved. In some ways, this is the most important issue on the list as well. Derrick Rose has become a clutch player. He's become a guy the team leans on in crucial moments, and he has shown an ability to deliver. He is making runs where he repeatedly abuses a team in key moments over and over willing the Bulls to victory by himself.
I didn't know if he had it in him, and he didn't really look like he did his rookie year. If anyone is to suggest this mentality is can not be taught and a player either has it or doesn't have it then I will point to Derrick Rose as the counter example. You all know I'm a big Ben Gordon fan, but it's quite possible Gordon needed to go in order to force Rose to develop in this way. The Bulls needed to force all the pressure on him and hope it turned him into a diamond. They did, and it looks like it worked.
Unfortunately his trips to the free throw line are still an on-going issue. While his FTAs are up slightly per game, his FTA per FGA is basically flat from last year. He's still getting a similar percentage of calls and as such, his TS% is basically flat with last year as well. Even looking at his recent hot run in January, his percentage of FTs per shot is still flat.
His defense appears to be improved to me this year. It's hard to measure, but he definitely feels like he's playing better defense. It's going to be a steady progression with him, and I'm happy with the direction it's going so far.
His range and accuracy on his jumper has definitely improved. In his rookie season he had an eFG% of 41.9% on his jumpers (60% of his shots). This season he has an eFG% of 45.1% on his jumpers (69% of his shots). It could be viewed as disturbing that he's shooting so many more jumpers now than his rookie year, but he has raised his eFG% by 3% on them.
Also, his eFG% has dropped from 57.7% to 52.2% on inside shots, so the gap between what his jumper and inside shot FG% has closed from 16% to 7%. I think the worse spacing the Bulls have this season is part of a reason for that drop off in inside shot percentage. Derrick's just taking tougher inside shots this year. I'd also speculate that his early season woes contributed greatly to those numbers.
Finally, his court vision seems roughly similar to what it was in the past. I'm not sure I'm expecting really big returns in this area ever, and it's not like Rose is a horrible court vision guy. He doesn't have anyone to really generate easy assists for him, and if he did, he'd probably add a couple assists a game. Still, he's not the type who creates lots of dunks for other players and probably won't be. Of course, I didn't think he could learn to play in full out attack mode for a full game at a time and was proven wrong there.
All in all, where are we at with Derrick Rose? He still has areas to improve upon if he's to become a perennial all-star type, but he's take several steps, and likely the most important one, down that path. In the middle of his second season, his level of play is presently at an all-star level. Can he keep it up indefinitely? As long as he's healthy, this shouldn't be a peak, but just the beginning.
Btw, his PER this year? Right now, it's 17.7.
Filed under: Uncategorized
Tags: chicago bulls, derrick rose, perennial all star, superstar
I think I remember that article, and seem to remember drawing calls at the basket being the biggest part of it.
Yeah, I've been on that train about Rose and BG leaving for awhile now. The Bulls couldn't become Derrick's team with Gordon still on it. It's really the only reason I was glad to see him go.
With a scoring big man and a complimentary shooting guard I've been projecting Derrick's career line at around 22pts 9 assists. The 9 is probably inflated. It's not based on any math though, that's just my gut about the kid.
It's really amazing what Rose did the last weeks. We got a glimpse in the first pre-season game, but I guess most of us forgot about that one in the first weeks of the season. I really doubted Rose too expecially his ability to carry the team. And I definitely didn't expect him to improve his jumpshot so quick, that it's really looking good now.
He's as awesome as we saw him in his best games last season and he's added so much to his game it's amazing. The best thing is, he still has soo much room to improve. He deserves being an allstar!
OFF-TOPIC (regarding Brad Miller)
From Marc Stein of ESPN:
It surely won
Congratualtions to Rose on his hard work and dedication! Obvioulsy
he was self motivated to strive for perfection! This guy is a winner!
No-Shot Noah took 3 years to get into shape and he is still a stinking weakling! The rookie Johnson is stronger than the Florida Fairy but he is not and shape just like the "lazy" Joakim. Where are coaches and GM? Are they asleep?
Thanks to Paxson the Laff-A-Bulls are only 11 players away from winning the Championship!
Let's not forget the 9+ million Klank Hinrich: 37% 2s, 35% 3s and 70% FT, think how much` better the Bulls would be with a real NBA quality starter at SG instead of a circle dribbling clock eater!
Minus his turnovers Klank averages 2.8 assists per game.
This is a good time to take a look at the post title, is Derrick Rose really a superstar? What is a superstar anyway?
My definition of superstar is a player who can become COMPLETELY unguardable at his position. The way Derrick's playing right now he's heading that way. The others I would count in the group are Kobe, Lebron, Wade, Duncan and Nowitzski. That's it. Everyone else can be really hot for stretches (Durant) or demand a constant double-team (Carmello). But these are the guys that can pretty much do whatever they want on the court and there's just not a damn thing you can do about it.
Did I leave anyone out?
Pretty amazing development. We hoped Rose could get there eventually, and he's suddenly arrived, and it's the best news possible for the franchise.
Doug, every time you say you'll be leaving us, something big occurs and draws you back in. I suggest you threaten to take another break around the trade deadline, then boom, blockbuster here we come!
Congrats to D Rose....in only his 2nd year making the all star team is pretty special.
Only way im trading Miller is for Bosh,Amare,or Boozer. You get one of them and then sign a big time free agent this summer and your a contender.
Doug you forgot one key difference from last year, rose has FAR FEWER turn overs per game! YAY screw wade and lebron, we have d- rose!
Alex-
You are an idiot. Recently, Kevin Durant referred to Noah as "the best rebounder in the game" and he was extremely close to making the All Star team as a big man, which is no easy task in the East.
Im not sure if he didnt sign an autograph for you or something, but your criticism of Noah is not only stupid, it destroys any credibility you MAY have had.
Dear Dmband.
Wow, I will bet you that you are dating No-Shot Noah the Florida Fairy, again!
When Noah was out hurt, Gibson stepped up and Noah wasn't missed at all. Noah is no where close to being an All-Star.
Noah can't compete against good and strong players because he is a weakling and he is a joke as an offensive threat.
Dmband, open your eyes and don't believe the some of the silly writers who need something to write about. There is nothing dumber than portraying the weakling Noah as an All-Star!
Cheap shots aside, Alex's criticisms of Noah are completely off the mark. He's strong enough to hang with most centers and outrebounds them nearly every game. His offensive game needs work, but he's averaging over 11 points a game with just under 50% shooting. He's averaging a double double and is a key cog to the success the Bulls have had lately. Not to mention he's playing through injury. If you don't want him, there's 29 other teams that would welcome him aboard.
Hey WearShades
I am glad that No-Shot Noah has improved but he is nowhere close to being an All-Star. Noah is a role player, nothing more! If Joakim gets stronger he will be better but he will never be an All-Star-----he does NOT have any offensive skills. When the Bulls have the Ball a strong forward or center pushes Joakim the weakling away from the basket! The Bulls don't have enough talent and Noah is not a threat to score! He is not an All-Star and he took 3 years to get in shape! How long before he is stronger?????
7-8 other guys were considered as potential All-Stars. As an example, Kamen played No-Shot Noah and beat Joakim like a drum. Joakim had no chance of stoppping the better than average Kamen! Noah was pathetic one on one with Kamen!
You keep saying he's a weakling, and I'm not inclined to agree. He put on what appears to be 10-15 pounds of muscle (especially in his upper body) this offseason, and as such he's been able to dominate the boards just about every game. As such, he's second in rebounding behind only Dwight Howard. His offensive game needs work, but he provides some interior scoring as his 11.4 ppg are nearly all from the low post. He's been playing at a level where all-star consideration is completely warranted. You can't complain that he didn't make it given how many other big men were deserving, but he definitely deserved to be in the conversation. Clearly, Noah has done something to offend you and it has nothing to do with what he's doing on the court.
Hey WearShades!
While No-Shot Noah has improved, he is still a weakling. In an interview Noah said that he gained 3-5 pounds and if he lifted all year it is likely that he turned fat weight into muscle weight which is good too. This took 3 years, where is his pride? He was on 2 NCAA championship teams. Is he that lazy, where were his coaches and trainers? Or are they lazy and stupid? Maybe they shoud get clown suits too!
Now let's look at facts, good and strong opponents still push No-Shot Noah around as if he was on roller skates!
No-Shot is a "role player", when he was hurt the "rookie Gibson took over his role" and did everything Noah could do! Plus Gibson was a real offensive threat!
Yes, Noah is All-Star just like the over paid clock eater Klank off the rim Hinrich and the fragile Deng are All-Stars! NOT!
If you get you eyes checked, you will be able to see that No-Shot gets pushed around and abused by good strong opponents!
Over rating players is Paxson's job, the Laff-A-Bulls can't trade Hinrich another role player or the barely average fragile Deng because they are over paid and over rated too!
No-Shot Noah has improved but he is No-Where near to being an All-Star! That is joke/joakim!
Congrats to Rose, he is not weak or lazy!
Derrick Rose will be the best Point Guard in the league in 2 years. I don't care about 12 apg that CP3 gets, Rose is bigger, faster, stronger, better jumper in his 2nd year, everything. Rose will definately be a tier 1 guy, you have to be joking Doug T. I wouldn't trade Rose for anybody but Wade or Lebron.
Alex, great assessment of Kirk Traniwreck Hinrich, he is just horrible, one of the worst players in the league this year. And Noah isn't as bad as you say but he isn't an all star either, people need to calm down a bit, lol.
Hey Hendu0520
I am a Bulls fan, I would like all the starters to be All-Stars! I very seldom miss a game!
Too bad all of us Bulls fans have to deal with the reality of the fragile Deng being nothing more than average
at best and grossly overpaid. Throw in the NBA back up Hinrich who is also grossly over paid and we can all see why the Bulls struggle.
The new media darling is Noah who a role player at best. When Joakim was hurt the rookie Gibson picked up the rebounding and he is a offensive threat. No wonder Noah's injury disappeared, Noah was very afraid!!!!
Why did it take the still weak Noah 3 years to get in shape and why isn't the rookie Johnson in shape, where is their pride and where in the heck are the coaches,trainers
and GM? How could they let these guys be weak and out of shape!
Doug, as for Derrick's PER, I don't have/pay for ESPN Insider. I don't see a PER for Derrick on 82games or databasebasketball. Could you tell me is there another good place to find that(for Derrick and other players)? Also, I hope Doc Rivers is not coaching the Eastern(All-Stars) squad because Rondo might have a leg up on Rose for playing time etc.
You can find it here under the "advanced" statistics:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/rosede01.html
Thanks shades/guys. I thought Basketball-reference had become databasebasketball..? My bad. Anyway appreciate it.
This is good stuff, especially when we are trying to land CB/LBJ/WADE. Hope we get one of them. Bulls defintely will be the top 3 in the east next year! GO BULLS!
Doug, I think Chris Paul's stats(assists),and scoring/rebounds are sick. But with a wall/large player double team in the playoffs(San Antonio) I think even with his absolutely freakish athleticism his height 5'11 has shown to be a liability. I do think Derrick could end up being a more effective player in winning playoff basketball games/contending. If he played like he has lately, especially the OKC game with shooting and lane unstoppability I'd say his dominance as a scorer potentially eclipses CP3's value. It would partially depend on which accompanying personnel were involved. But I respect your reverence for Chris as it is well deserved especially if you analyze him stats wise I know he's the shizz/already shown hall of fame performances.
Doug why do you say that D Rose cannot be as good as Paul?
Look at Paul's 2nd year he has a significant adnavtage in assist 8.3-5.9, FT% and 3PT%. Pauls PPG and FG% are actually lower than Rose's 2nd year. also remember Paul stayed an extra year of college so head more seasoning. Further more, Rose is bigger, more athletic, and finished around the rim better than Paul. I really think Rose can improve is 3PT and FT% just like he improved his jumper. Court vision however.....is innate.
Also, for me the most import thing to judge a super-star player is efficient scoring in the playoffs during the 4th quarter when the defense is focused on stopping you. With Rose's size speed advantage, he should be better than Paul in this area. I have yet to seen anybody able to stay with rose of the dribble. Rose has abused good defensive PGs (Rondo and Westbrook) and good defensive SGs (Sefolosha).
Also Paul plays with an All-Star something Rose has never head.
I don't think Doug is saying he can't be as good as Paul, he's just saying it's not something you should expect. You have to consider have difficult it is to rise to that level of super stardom. It's not just about athleticism. Is Rose more athletic than Paul: Yes. But that doesn't make it inevitable that Rose will be the better player.
i dont know what you're talking about, i mean lebron james is good, but he's no d-rose. But eh james is still developing. if he ever get's a consistent jumper like D-rose, i might consider putting james in the same category as rose.