This augments yesterday's thoughts about three point shooting, because as I considered it, I realized this team is really behind the eight ball to deliver a consistently good offensive performance. To understand why the Bulls will struggle to become a good offensive team first requires an understanding of what makes a good offensive team. We're not talking about points per game. Points per game is meaningless. What's important is offensive efficiency and points per possession.
Last season, the league average was 108.3 points per 100 offensive possessions. That's the equivalent of shooting 54.15% from the field. As we well know, there are extremely few players who shoot that high a percentage from the field, and those that do usually take very few shots a game.
In fact, the league average was 46% from the field which is a far cry from that 54%. How do teams overcome that gap? Easy. Three point shooting and getting to the foul line for three point plays and higher percentage two point plays. As a team, you can also raise your FG% if you have a dominant player who can shoot a very high percentage for the team on a high volume of shots (most commonly seen from big men who play at the basket).
The problem is the Bulls have none of these things. They're likely to finish last in the NBA in three points made, and unlike last year, their low volume of threes is accompanied by a low percentage of makes as well.
They don't have anyone who's drawing a ton of fouls at the basket. We hoped Derrick Rose would become that guy, but so far he hasn't.
They don't have a dominant big man (that's sure been well documented over the years).
In order for the Bulls to become effective on offense they need to acquire one of the above, or hope to improve in those areas with the present roster. Derrick Rose could still generate a ton of fouls, and he also could shoot a very high percentage from the floor despite not being the dominant low post guy. That's their best bet. Luol Deng and Brad Miller have at least some three point potential if given open looks from the corner which may not be out of their range.
The next thing they can do is develop an efficient fast break oriented offense and count on their defense and rebounding to create enough opportunities for easy points for the offense that they operate in the half court less frequently.
Otherwise, they'll rely on ball movement, spacing, and offensive execution in an attempt to shoot two point shots at a much higher percentage than the rest of the league. Something which is complicated by the fact that opponents don't need to spread themselves out to defend the Bulls due to the lack of three point shooting.
Unfortunately, the odds of these things occurring with enough frequency for the Bulls to become a better than average offensive team (or even escape the bottom 10) don't look very high. Thus, I predict the Bulls will struggle mightily all year on the offensive end of the court.