Circus trip predictions sure to go wrong

I'm in a select group.   The group that doesn't mind the circus trip.   For one, you have to go on two long west coast trips eventually, so it's not like this is some special curse for them.   Every team is going to hit as many far travel days in a row as it can.   Why not get the tough one out of the way early?    It always leaves so much room for a strong finish.
The circus trip hasn't always spelled complete doom either.   Last November the Bulls finished up the circus trip at 8-9.   I said they had 4th seed potential at that point, and if they hadn't completely tanked during a weak December schedule, they would have.  

This team has a long history of charging back from rough starts.   It's not that they get it together.  It's the schedule evening out.   However, I do like the momentum that can build by getting a tough stretch out of the way early. 

The Bulls enter this stretch 5-4, and it wasn't against a soft schedule either.   The Bulls have only played two poor teams; the bobcats and the 76ers.   They have wins against Cleveland, Milwaukee (oddly this seems impressive so far), and San Antonio.   They played well in tough losses to Denver, Miami, and Toronto [let's pretend the last 6 minutes didn't happen].   

All in all, the Bulls have done well so far against a tough schedule.  

My goal for the circus trip is to come out of it 7-8.   That requires a modest 2-4 trip.  Now obviously, any given day, any NBA team can beat another team.  The
96 Bulls won 72 games, but that means they lost 10 too.  It's not like
those 10 losses were to better opponents, sometimes a vastly superior
team simply has an off day to an inferior one which catches fire.

Here's how the schedule matches up, and how I predict the outcome:

@Sacramento - Bulls win 65% of the time
@LA Lakers - Bulls win 25% of the time [edit - How did I not know Pau was out?  Fire me!]
@Denver - Bulls win 25% of the time
@Portland - Bulls win 30% of the time
@Utah - Bulls win 35% of the time
@Mil - Bulls win 40% of the time

This accounts for the location of the game as well as the opponent and how well I perceive them to be playing at this moment.   Harsh?   Easy?   I'm not sure, seems reasonable to me. 

It's a brutal trip. 

I'd love to predict something more cheery and optimistic, and if the Bulls managed to pull out a 3-3 out of this stretch by some miracle, I will likely go off on a "4th seed or bust!" rant, but I'm not going to get my hopes up.   All I hope for is something short of unmitigated disaster [0-6].

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  • 3-3 Doug. All i know is Derrick has his work cut out for him (Evans, Billups, Roy, Williams, Jennings).

  • Roy and Evans are very similar in that they have the bodies of a 2 but they love to bring the ball up and run the plays.

  • Doug also we go something like 0-6 and we lose these games in horrid ways, i will call for Vinnys head and garpax.

  • 2-4 which brings their record to 7-8 which seems right on course. I'd say they might be able to upset the Lakers though

  • Are the lakers going to be hit by the swine flu on Thurday morning dpauley?

  • In reply to Newskoolbulls:

    That would help, but who else is better on the Lakers besides Kobe is better?

  • In reply to Newskoolbulls:

    I admit I haven't paid a ton of attention to the NBA so far this year, but it seems to me like your win percentages @Denver (25%) and @Portland (%30) are overly optimistic.

  • In reply to Newskoolbulls:

    Looking at this Lakers team we might be able to pull the upset. They basically only have 3 people playing good and the rest is crap. They've faced an easily schedule and got killed both times they faced top team in the West. If Noah and Co. shut down Bynum we should win

  • I agree that 2-4 is both realistic and necessary. 3-3 is indeed party time.

  • Doug Pau is out til Janurary

  • I remember DT saying Derrick Rose wasn't a superior passer, which I agree with, partly. Here's why, if you remember Memphis playing Kansas in San Antonio, Rose did what most Point Guards can't and that's breaking down defenses while kicking it out with perfect angles. Every guy he kicked it out to had immense room. The only guy that can do that with success on that list is Deron Williams. The last time Derrick Rose played against Tyreke Evans was at the AAU event, Meanstreets vs Team Tyreke. The ending went like this, Derrick at the top of the key with 10 seconds left, he drove at the 3sec mark and threw up a floater that sealed the game. Sure, he had Eric Gordon by his side but he took Evans on that last play and what a beauty to see. This just goes to show you that shooters boosts Derrick's ability; its like playing Dwight Howard with Rashard Lewis, without him, Dwight Howard usually plays less effective. So stop jumping on Pooh back.

  • Lakers lose another one. Lose by ten to the Rockets. The Artest move not looking good so far as he looks a step slow.

  • Thats why i have the odds of beating the Nuggets at 5%. They will be a very angry and hungry Nugget team.

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