Per Yahoo Sports Twitter, Portland's lengthy negotiations with LaMarcus Aldridge have resulted in an agreement for a 5 year, $70 million extension, with a follow-up tweet announcing a slightly lesser figure.
Of the entire 2006 draft, only three players have signed extensions. First overall pick Andrea Bargnani got a 5 year, $50 million extension, and now Aldridge (second overall pick, tecnically) has signed for $70 million. The other to sign is another Blazer, Brandon Roy, who last month signed a maximum deal through 2015. No one else has signed an extension, and few look like they're going to.
Tyrus Thomas hasn't got one.
It wasn't the strongest first round draft in the world. Despite only three seasons having passed since the draft, ten of the players aren't even on their rookies contracts any more. Joel Freeland never signed; Shannon Brown and Patrick O'Bryant lasted only two seasons of their rookie deals; Quincy Douby, Marcus Williams and Mouhamed Sene were waived partway through year three; Maurice Ager, Cedric Simmons, Shelden Williams and Rodney Carney did not have their fourth year option exercised. An eleventh player, Shawne Williams, is staring down the barrel of a buyout from the Mavericks, due to both continued ill-discipline and bad play.
That's a third of the first round that didn't even get to the end of their rookie deal. Not good.
Of the remaining 16 players, hardly any seem likely to sign an extension. Adam Morrison is barely in the league, propping up the Lakers inactive list. Oleksiy Pecherov isn't eligible for one, having signed a year late (and he may not get his fourth year option exercised). And players such as J.J. Redick, Hilton Armstrong, Sergio Rodriguez, Jordan Farmer, Renaldo Balkman, Mardy Collins and Josh Boone are at the back end of their team's rotations, thus highly unlikely to get tied down for long.
The only players left over are Kyle Lowry, Thabo Sefolosha, Tyrus Thomas, Rudy Gay, Rajon Rondo, Ronnie Brewer and Randy Foye. Those players have about a week to sign an extension, and not many of them are talking. We're certainly not talking to Tyrus, and the Celtics are apparently not talking to Rondo about an extension either (if you believe that). Utah and Brewer are talking, and both sides want a deal to get done, but that might be the only other one forthcoming; Memphis are talking to Gay, but an extension is currently considered "unlikely," and the rest do not appear to be in talks.
Out of a 30 man first round draft class, that's a pretty poor return. But at least Aldridge got one.
Is Aldridge's new extension overpaying? Maybe. He's improved year on year, and is good enough to return great stats across the board; 19.1 PER, 9.5 win shares, +484 net points, averages of 18.1ppg and 7.5rpg in only his third season in the league. That's good stuff by any metric. But it's not elite stuff, nor is it one notch below it. It's probably two notches below it, and for all the good numbers, his true shooting percentage of .523% and his poor rebounding percentage of 12.5% offer quite a bit of room for improvement.
Nevertheless, the new extension seems him paid basically the same as Al Jefferson, a highly comparable player in terms of production, if not in style. Jefferson signed a 5 year, $65 million deal last season, for an average of $13 million a season, and with the exception of last year's injury afflicted season, his career trajectory has been pretty much the same as Aldridge's. (They're also the same age.) Aldridge's average of up to $14 million a season sounds like a hell of a lot, mainly because it is, and something nearer to an average of $12.5 to $13 mil a season may have been more befitting. But the different between the two is largely negligible, and so even if Portland has overpaid in this extension, it shouldn't factor.
Even if they have overpaid him, Portland can afford it. A few years ago, they had a payroll that roughly doubled the salary cap, perfectly willing to take on much more salary even when doing so wasn't a great idea (see also; Shawn Kemp and Derek Anderson). That was due to the outrageously deep pockets of their owner Paul Allen, pockets which haven't gotten any shallower. The Aldridge extension, their intent to spend big in free agency this year (which didn't really work out, but still) and the max contract for Roy should represent the beginning of another era of big spending; if you can't pony up for a young core like that, then you shouldn't be an NBA owner.
They're also able to pay Aldridge because he's a proven high calibre player, one of the better power forwards in the world, an ever-improving 24 year old who produces consistently n both ends on the floor. While he may not be faultless, particularly with his rebounding and his inability to draw foul shots, he's also highly productive, with yet more potential for improvement in front of him. He's not caught in a positional crisis, he's not perpetually trying to do things that he can't do and trying to become a player ill-suited to his skills, he's not putting up numbers comparable to the likes of Ryan Gomes and Jason Thompson, and he's not struggling to outproduce his backup.
Portland have decided that these are more important attributes to have in a player than how they react to a 1000 yard stare over a dinner table.
So they've got that going for them.
Filed under: Uncategorized
Tags: chicago bulls, Extensions, lamarcus aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers, Transactions, Tyrus Thomas, Unsubtle Inferrences
Good stuff Mark. Its overpaying but not quite compared to Bargs who got a big deal who really only started showing true signs in year three while LA has been doing it from the moment he stepped on the court. As for guys like Rondo, Gay, and Brewer why are they not getting paid? Gay is the face of the sad franchise in Memphis and Rondo is a top 5 pg in the league who I bet really must not care for the way he has been treated by Doc and Ainge and as for Brewer he started coming along nicely and even developed more of an offensive game.
All motivation is good motivation. If he thrives on jealousy, that'll do.
LA is much better than Deng and unlike Deng actually streches the floor for his postion. Bigs always get overpaid, he probably would have gotten a max contract next year by someone who stuck out in 2010. This isn't a bad deal, might of overpaid a little but LA is not Mr Glass.
Love the comment about the stare across the dinner table. Do you think Skiles was making a pass at Aldridge?
In a related note how is it that just a couple of years after making a major scouting/draft blunder with TT over Aldridge, Forman and Paxson are promoted in the Bulls organization? Does that tell you something about Reinsdorf's style? I say it does, i.e. loyalty trumps competency.
Paxson got pretty much everything wrong in the 2006 offseason. Other than that, he's been good.
on a completely separate note...
as I recall when jefferson signed his deal people were saying he was under paid
Well, he's kind of overrated, so that's probably to be expected.
You think drafting TT was a "single mistake?" Did you conveniently forget FA contracts to Pippen and Wallace? And who said anything about firing, I mentioned promotion.
Do you attribute Bulls profitablity to Paxson's performance? I guess it is ok then to have a middle of the pack team as long as you are making the most money. Then Kupchak is a comparative failure because the Lakers didn't make as much money as the Bulls. Truly delusional.
His injuries don't take him out of games. He has played in 75+ games the past two years and only missed one game last year. He missed 19 games as a rookie but other than that has been very reliable. Deng has missed 19 or more games in a year 3 times in his career. He has only played 75+ games a year twice and averages twice as many missed games per year as LA.
I think you really underestimate LA. He isn't a world beater but he is a very solid PF with only one real weakness being his rebounding. He is putting up 18 and 7.5 on a nice fg%. Bigs are far rarer than SFs. Deng is an average SF while LA is an above average PF.