Answering that question, I think most of us would agree he'll be worse. We don't mean that in a derogatory fashion, but it doesn't take a lengthy look at the stats to see that, for Salmons, last year was a clear outlier.
In both Sacramento and Chicago last year, Salmons found good situations. With Kevin Martin out for most of the start of the season with injury, the Kings struggling for any offense they could find, and with only Quincy Douby and Bobby Jackson threatening his playing time at shooting guard, Salmons became an offensive focal point for the Kings and he scored big. Similarly, when arriving in Chicago, Salmons joined a team with not a whole lot of depth, with all the small forward minutes he could handle, and a team in dire need of a big perimeter player with an outside shot. He again played 37 minutes a game, he again scored 17.6 points per game, he again shot 47%, and he again posted a PER of 16.0. (It's kind of weird how similar the stats are, actually.)
The Bulls needs have changed slightly since then, with the departure of Ben Gordon and the return of Luol Deng. This necessitates a position change for Salmons, who now becomes the starting shooting guard. I'm a bit wary of this, because of Salmons' lack of speed, but considering he used to play a lot of backup point guard back in the day, he can probably handle it. More importantly, though, Salmons is one year older, almost kicking 30's door down now, at an age where players just never really improve. Even though he just did, it doesn't seem likely that Salmons will improve again.
However, Sean Deveney disagrees.
In his list of four players primed for a breakout year, Deveney includes Salmons in amongst younger and more illustrious company, for this reason:
He averaged 18.3 points after his trade to Chicago last February, though, and with Ben Gordon gone, Salmons should take over the role of go-to scorer in a brighter media market .
It doesn't seem like the strongest pair of reasons in the world; the market a player plays in doesn't affect their actual abilities, which is supposed to be the point of the award, and it will also be harder for Salmons to play on a bigger stage this year than last year's playoff series against the Celtics was. Salmons also isn't going to be the primary go-to scorer on a team with Derrick Rose on it; indeed, his share of the scoring load will be much the same as it was last year, with the loss of Gordon's scoring offset by the return of Deng, the addition of James Johnson, and some interal improvement by other players.
It is, however, nice to see him thought of in such a way. It certainly bucks the trend of people claiming last year was a fluke. But such criticisms might be right.
John Hollinger often talks of the concept of "fluke seasons," something which he defines as follows:
The Fluke Rule, if you aren't familiar, states that a player who is older than 28, has a Player Efficiency Rating higher than 14 and increased his PER by at least three points from the previous season is 90 percent likely to perform worse the next season.
Salmons doesn't quite meet the criteria, but he comes close. He never posted a PER above 10.7 in his first four seasons for the Sixers, and then posted PER's of 12.7 and 13.9 in his first two seasons with the Kings. Last season's 16.0 was a big increase on that, and even if it doesn't quite meet Hollinger's definitions of a 3.0 PER increase, it's close enough to be worrisome. (As is Salmons's age; he's 28 in December.)
An optimistic way of looking at things is to say that Salmons just genuinely broke out, going from being a mediocre player to a good one. He learned to shoot at some point in the last two seasons, resulting in a career high 121 three point makes on 42% shooting last season (his previous career highs were a mere 50 and 36%). We would all be comfortable with another season of exactly the same production, because while the rebounding and assist drop-offs are not ideal, any perimeter player that can score 18 points per game on a true shooting percentage of .580% is totally welcomed.
But further improvement would be largely unprecedented, whereas a decline would not. Players just don't get a whole lot better at age 28, and those who do (for example, Hidayet Turkoglu) are genuinely privy to the Fluke Rule.
Here's hoping that Salmons isn't one of them.
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I don't like the title of this article because I don't believe he'll be worse or better, I think he'll stay the same because of to factors: yes he is getting older, but yes ben gordon is gone. So I think the 2 kind of equal out. If i had to choose i guess i say instead of scoring 18 hell score 20 but with a lower percentage, so still i say the same. no better no worse