LeBron's future: (Bulls not mentioned)
Wade's future: (Bulls get 8/52 votes, 2nd most likely destination)
The Bron-Wade parallels take a twist when looking at the hometown hero factor.
Although LeBron gets to play near his home city of Akron, D-Wade is about 1,200 miles from home. Meanwhile, the Bulls have been canny in creating 2010 cap space, opening the door for Wade to make a hero's return, somewhat like MJ in 1995. And in Derrick Rose, Chicago could finally provide Wade with the kind of dynamic young point guard he has never had before.
But although everyone has speculated on his future, Wade himself hasn't said much about going back home, and anyone who has survived a Chicago winter has a clue why. Also, as many folks could tell you, going home isn't always as comfortable as keeping your distance.
And don't overlook this fact: The Bulls can't pay Wade nearly as much as Miami can.
All in all, only 15.3 percent of our panelists see Wade blowing off Miami and returning to the Windy City.
Chris Bosh's future: (Bulls get 4 votes, 3rd most likely destination)
The Bulls often have been mentioned as a potential preferred destination for Bosh, and they will have both the cap space and the motivation, given their long-standing need for a scoring big man. Certainly Chicago appears to be putting together the kind of roster that could attract a marquee free agent, although it has had trouble sealing the deal in recent years.
Amare's future: (Bulls in "others receiving votes no description)
First, I'll say the ESPN people are on crack when they see LeBron heading to New York. Why would LeBron go there when he could instead go to Miami, Chicago, or even the Clippers/Nets? What does New York really have? Absolutely no talent to complement LeBron, and the only way to bring in talent is the hope that LeBron draws it.
Except LeBron could draw talent anywhere, so that's not much of a sell. I think this is a case of some East coast bias there. For a guy who's talked about wanting to win multiple rings, do the Knicks really fit?
This seems similar to me to all of the Wade to Chicago stuff. Why would Wade come to Chicago to play along side Derrick Rose, who's game is similar? He'd be better off pairing up with almost any other great player in the league. I'm sure Chicago holds some lure, but I think it's been significantly overstated.
On to Chris Bosh, he OPENLY MOCKED the idea of going to New York, still, the majority of ESPN guys think he's going there. He laughed at the idea. He's the most likely to move, but Chicago and Miami are both FAR better fits for him than the Knicks, seriously why would he go there?
Maybe I haven't been around the league long enough to appreciate the huge lure of the Knicks to all free agents. I mean after all, they just signed a big name FA back in uhmmm.... Wait, have the Knicks ever signed a big name free agent? Seriously, who was the last big name FA to sign in New York?
Amare to New York? Now that makes sense. Amare's an injury waiting to happen where many teams will balk on his price, and after missing out on every other big name player the Knicks will be desperate to sell their fans on anyone after telling them to wait for a rebuild for a few years. Miami would make even more sense if the Heat miss out on Bosh and are willing to pay, but my bet is Riles is too smart to pay Amare, same with Chicago.
So what do I think will happen? I think it's all up for grabs. Especially given that these max FAs will do S&Ts if they leave meaning they don't necessarily need to go to a team with cap space. However, I don't want to leave you without something you can look back upon and mock me a year later, so here's my best guess:
Lebron stays in Cleveland
Wade stays in Miami
Bosh goes to Miami
Amare goes to New York
Boozer goes to the Nets
Joe Johnson goes to the Clippers or stays with the Hawks
Bulls sign some FAs who cost less than 10 million per year
Doesn't sound rosy for us, however, though I don't think Chicago is the most likely destination for any of the big names, I think we're in the running for all of them. Chicago should be a top three destination on all of their lists IMO. The real key will be whether LeBron or Wade want to move.
If either move then it gums up the works. Say LeBron moves to Miami to join Wade. Bosh then has his most likely destination become Chicago. Say Wade moves to any team outside of Chicago, then LeBron won't go to Miami and one of the three becomes highly likely to go to Chicago.
Also, if the Bulls outperform the Heat this season or if Wade is hurt at all, then Chicago may become a better destination than Miami for either LeBron or Bosh if they leave. Rose might become a more attractive long term player to play with or the rest of the team may become more valuable in terms of core pieces.
We'll have to wait and see. 2010 ha always been a long shot, but if it works, the Bulls have a legit shot at a title for half a decade. Given that we've sat through terrible seasons to get lottery picks that assure no such thing, I'm happy taking the risk in attempting to have a great season to lure a big name player here that does assure us of being a contender if it works out.
Filed under: Uncategorized
Tags: amare stoudemire, chicago bulls, chris bosh, lebron james, miami heat, new york knicks
I agree with your reasoning far more than I do with ESPN's experts.
Miami is going to be the number 1 destination, because NBA guys love the sex appeal of the city and Riley and Arison will find a way to make things happen while Paxson and RDorf go through the process.
I think that everyone makes a run for Miami. Wade stays, and they find a way(S&T)to get Lebron and Bosh.
If Miami doesn't make it happen, i.e. Wade decides to leave then it will come down to Cleveland and Chicago. Wade or Bosh could go to Cleveland to join Lebron.
If it doesn't happen in Cleveland then the Bulls are destination #3 and we get a shot at all 3.
Personally, I think that those 3 guys are going to talk to each other and try to figure out a way to end up together, and I bet that at least 2 of them end up together.
On talent alone, I like Amare better than Bosh, but he is a much bigger risk, and 2-3 years older. I think NY overpays(full max) for him, except D'Antoni supposedly doesn't like him.
I still think that the Bulls are a dark horse to be a or the favorite in the Lebron sweepstakes, and then they will try to get either Wade or Bosh to join him in Chicago.
So Basically, either Miami, Cleveland or Chicago will own the east for the next decade, with Orlando hot on their tails.
Doug are you of the opinion that basically it will boil down to Bosh deciding between us and Miami and if he goes to Miami then we settle for a lesser name like David Lee or even resigning Tyrus?
Who are some of the lesser FAs for under $10 million that you were referring to? Maybe our own guys in Tyrus, Salmons and Miller? Maybe making an offer to Luis Scola and seeing if Houston matches? Udonis Haslem? Ultimately I hope it does not come down to all that. I am hoping for Bosh. Maybe someone like Boozer goes to Miami with Wade leaving Bosh for us.
You are probably right about Lebron and Wade staying put, but what is with the out-of-control Knick bashing I see all over the place? To say they have, "absolutely no talent to complement Lebron", is at best completely unfair and premature, and at worst totally false on its face. Why not let this coming season play aout before claiming teh Knicks have no shot at Lebron, or any of these other guys. For one thing, the Knicks in fact do have some young prospects in Chandler, Gallinari, Hill and Toney Douglas. It is possible that those guys will prove to be a pretty solid young core of players, and the Knicks may actually surprise some people this season as well. Secondly, if the Cavs have a disappointing season, Lebron may be tempted to make the jump to NYC, because he, unlike this moronic blog, doesn't reflexively write off the Knicks, and also because the Knicks will most likely at least have enough cap room to offer one max contract. One more thing, Bosh didn't "openly mick" the idea of going to NY. That is the idiots interpretation. In fact, he simply laughed when asked if he had thought about it, most likely because he was laughing off the question of whether he would sign elsewhere at all, not because the Knicks were mentioned. He at no point "openly mocked" the Knicks.
... also, there is still the distinct possibility that DOnnie Walsh can shed Eddy Curry and Jeffries fat contracts, which will free up an additional 17 million bucks. If that happens, it is possible the Knicks--even with a decreased salary cap--will be able to off two max contracts in 2010, opening the possibility of luring two big names. the ability to offer a top dog running mate for Wade or Lebron or Bosh, etc, in a big market city, in a legendary arena, under a player friendly, up-tempo coach, will be a very enticing scenario. Another scenario is if Curry can come back and play to his potential. Then maybe it will make sense for the Knicks to keep him. Some of you simple morons will laugh this off, but Curry has reportedly rededicated himself and has dropped significant weight. SOrry so long winded, but just wanted to make the point that teh Knicks aren't as sorry as everyone seems to think
I don't know I have a hard time seeing Bron sticking around in Cleavland long term if they can't use an expiring to get themselves another star. Their front court is going to be gone. Both Big Z and Shaq are old and expire at the end of the year. I also don't think that expirement will work out that well, that is a really slow front court. Delonte West and Mo Williams also don't inspire much confidence and its not like they have any younger talent developing around him. I'd say he is pretty unlikely to win a title their unless they make a big trade. They should have picked up VC for Wally and change when they had the chance. I just see them very limited in the long term. Miami is a good situation but no one knows how well wade will hold up long term.
Yeah, your right. Both Miami and Cleavland will both have cap space without their stars and can play hard ball like that. Only Toronto would gain something by getting a TE.
The interesting dark horse candidate ti get Bron should be the magic. I know they don't have cap space but they will have VC's expiring and a 1st to throw at Cleavland. VC doesn't seem like much but Cleavland won't get a better star without Bron and Bron would put the Magic over the top.
Doug, I do agree with you that how the Bulls play this year will greatly influence their attractiveness to FAs. I assume that if the Bulls play well, that means J. Fish will play well and will decide to become a FA, thus giving the Bulls even more cash to spend under the cap. If that happens, do you think that will improve the Bulls attractiveness to FAs; i.e., the Bulls are strong in 2009/10 and can bring in a FA without breaking up too much of their core?
I have heard you mention on one of your podcasts that you wrote a blog entry reviewing the players on the current squad and, more or less, whether or not they'll be on the team or have a role on the team in the D. Rose era. I assume that probably discusses who might be back. I would be interested in reading that, but cannot find it in the archive. Can you provide a link to that? I think it would be relevant given the focus on 2010 free agents.
Thank you for your work - it's fun to have something to read during the slow summer months that doesn't have to do with our baseball teams stinking.
I think LeBron goes to NY no matter what. He recognizes that his best earning potential is in endorsements. Being business-minded, he'll see the declining salary caps in the NBA and be drawn to the more lucrative marketing contracts waiting for him in NYC.