Could the 2010 plan become the 2011 plan?

With the predicted large salary cap fall in the next season, could it possibly push the big summer of 2010 to become the big summer of 2011?

First, there was a lot of discussion of how the summer of 2010 would
actually take place in the summer of 2009 with all the big players
agreeing to extensions and either being moved in sign and trades or
staying put.   Clearly, this hasn't happened, and at this point, it
doesn't seem like it will though things could still change.

However, now, it's possible that the summer in 2010 happens in 2011.  
How much risk is there for LeBron, Bosh, or Wade to pick up their
player option for the 2010/11 season?   All may be locks for max offers
the following year anyway.   They will make more money by picking up
the option (about 500k) than they will otherwise.

On top of that, by picking up the option, they'll be eligible for
larger scale contracts than they would otherwise.   This is because of
the falling salary cap making their max salary greater using the 105%
of last year's formula than 30% of the salary cap forumula.  

By going this route, the six year contract is worth approximately 11
million more than it would be otherwise, plus the additional 500k from
year one, and the 5 year contract is worth about 8.5 million more than
it would be otherwise (plus the additional 500k from year one).   

Year of
Value for Year Total
1 $16,568,907$ 16,568,9072$
2 17,894,420 $34,463,3273
3 $19,219,932 $53,683,2594
4 $20,545,445 $74,228,7035
5 $21,870,957 $96,099,661
Year of
Value for Year Total
1 $16,568,907 $16,568,9072
2 $18,308,642 $34,877,5493
3 $20,048,377 $54,925,9274
4 $21,788,113 $76,714,0395
5 $23,527,848 $100,241,8876
6 $25,267,583 $125,509,471
Year of
Value for Year Total
1 $18,006,705 $18,006,7052
2 $19,447,241 $37,453,9463
3 $20,887,778 $58,341,7244
4 $22,328,314 $80,670,0385
5 $23,768,851 $104,438,899

Year of
Value for Year Total
1 $18,006,705 $18,006,7052
2 $19,897,409 $37,904,1143
3 $21,788,113 $59,692,2274
4 $23,678,817 $83,371,0445
5 $25,569,521 $108,940,5656
6 $27,460,225 $136,400,790

There are two downsides to executing the plan in this fashion.   The
first is obviously the risk of something hurting their status as max
player extends out two years instead of one.   If Dwyane Wade is hurt
next season he's still probably a max player.   If he's hurt the next
two seasons he may not be.    While Chris Bosh's reputation as being
soft or not a true difference maker could lower his value if it remains
true for two seasons as well.

LeBron could do this safely unless he gets a career ending injury.  

The second downside is that all of them would enter free agency the
next round one year later into it.    For Wade that extra year and
depending on their status in six or seven years, that year may prove
crucial.   It may be the difference between another mega contract and a
minor contract for all of them.  

It's worth noting the year could go either way though.   If they sign
another megadeal at the end of this contract then it will be their last
big deal, and it would be more valuable to have it come a year later,
but if going into it a year later makes the megadeal unlikely then
being a FA a year earlier is more preferable.

Dwayne Wade will be 28 next summer.  A six year deal makes him 34 at
the end of that contract.   My personal guess is that it is Wade's last
big deal.  If he plays out extra option year then he'd be 35 at the end
of the deal where it would almost certainly be his last big deal.   

Chris Bosh will be 26 next summer, so he's looking at being 32 or 33
entering his last chance for a big payday.    Bosh has had his share of
nagging injuries thus far, but nothing serious yet.   It's a big
question mark as to whether or not he's going to be worth another big
contract when this one expires.

LeBron James will be 25 next summer, so he's looking at 31 or 32.   For
LeBron, he's highly likely to be worth another max contract at 31 or
32.   He's also the guy who's value has almost no chance of declining
over an extra year of risk, and if he doesn't win a title in Cleveland
may want to give it one more shot there.   

Weighing out the risk and reward, LeBron benefits by picking up his
player option.  He little risk in doing so, and he probably makes more
money on the back end of his deal as well.   Bosh/Wade probably benefit
by opting out minimizing their risk of losing the next big deal and
probably breaking even in risk on their future contract plans.  

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