The Ultimate Bulls Blasphemy: Trade Derrick Rose?

No, this has nothing to do with the irrelevance of his grades or SAT scandal or whatever other "character flaws" people feel have been brought up in the past week.   Personally, I roll my eyes at that talk.  Next, there is an assumed premise that if the Bulls can acquire Bosh or Amare with another trade not involving Rose that would be preferable.    I consider this trade only if that proves impossible.

That being said, let's say a trade of Derrick Rose + Luol Deng + Jerome James for Chris Bosh was on the board.  The trade gives the Raptors more value for Bosh than they could possibly hope for under normal circumstances, so they seem likely to complete such a trade if offered.

For the Bulls, the trade frees up considerable salary space as we take
back Chris Bosh's 15.7 million in salary while sending out 22.1 million
in salary, Toronto being far enough under the cap to absorb the
difference.   The Bulls also nab a 6.6 million dollar trade
exception in this deal which may or may not prove valuable.    The
salary savings gives us room to offer Ben Gordon a 6/54 deal and bring
him back next season.

The trade leaves the Bulls with a starting lineup as follows: Hinrich,
Gordon, Salmons, Bosh, Noah with Tyrus, Miller, and their two
first-rounders.   A follow up move to bring in another guard for Tyrus
or Miller (preferably one on a one-year deal) would then make a world
of sense to balance out the roster unless we feel that our two first
round draft picks bring enough value at the guard/wing positions.

First, this team is vastly more talented than last year's team as well
as distributing the talent much better.   The odds of this team winning
50 games or more are high as long as everyone stays healthy.  On top of
this, the trade leaves the Bulls in outstanding salary position going
forward.

Bosh, Kirk, Ben, Salmons Noah, 2 2009 1st rounders and the 2010 1st
rounder will be under contract for about 46 million in total salary.   
After cap holds for minimum salary players, the Bulls would still have
nearly 10 million in cap space to use.   If Salmons opts out, then it
would be close to 15 million, which would leave the Bulls only two
million or so away from being able to sign LeBron.   Something the
Bulls could accomplish by moving Hinrich in a cap savings trade if
there is a chance to do so.

On top of having the cap space to potentially sign LeBron, they'd also
become the premier destination for him if he becomes a free agent.  
They'd have Ben Gordon, Chris Bosh, and Joakim Noah in place as a core
around him which makes the perfect set of a super duper star, a near
superstar, and and a border line all star, a defensive center, and
three young first round draft picks over the past two years on the
bench.

However, if the LeBron pipe dream doesn't pan out, which is most
likely, then you still have an incredibly balanced roster with a good
PG, SG, PF, and a defensive anchor center with three draft picks and
John Salmons or cap room to sign a near max player.    Either way, the
Bulls would remain young, talented, balanced, and have tremendous
financial flexibility in that off-season to try to make a push moving
forward.

The downside, of course, is losing the super star potential of Derrick
Rose.   If Rose fulfills his potential then the Bulls could look
comically bad for making this trade and on top of that, they'd take a
massive public relations hit for trading away a Chicago based project
who goes as far to ignore his college and use "from Chicago" on his
introductions.   The downside risk makes this a trade the Bulls won't
consider, however let's examine the prospects of building with Rose in
the future.

The salary consequences of the trade are close to break even for the
next three seasons until Rose demands a max extension at which point
the salary of Chris Bosh will be far less.    The Bulls could attack FA
with a similar amount of cap space by having a core of Rose, Gordon,
Hinrich, Salmons, and Deng though it's unlikely we'd bring them all
back and that we won't replace the one we lose with a significant
talent.

If we jettison someone, we're losing an asset like Hinrich or Gordon
for nothing which is one downside whereas all our assets are
efficiently used in the Bosh trade.   Also, we still lack balance on
the roster as all of our talent will still exist in the backcourt and
on the wings.   In 2010, we might be able to bid on Bosh or Amare, but
there's a greater chance that both come to extensions this summer (with
trades or not) meaning that we won't have a premier big man to pursue
with the cap space.

Building through Rose leads to a great deal of uncertainty because
there's no obvious way to get the talent we need around him.   He's not
a great fit with any player presently on the roster except perhaps
Joakim Noah who's role as defender/garbage collector probably fits on
any team as a center.    Hinrich isn't enough of a shooting guard,
Gordon doesn't give you enough defense and forces an ultra small
backcourt.   Deng doesn't have three point range.   Maybe Salmons fits
best skill wise, but his age probably prevents him from being a
long-term piece.

If he's good enough, these are all temporary problems.   The Bulls
simply take the time to bring in the right pieces even if that will be
challenging and take a couple of years.   That's the real question
though, will he be good enough to go through the trouble for?  The
Rose/Deng for Bosh solution may give us a lower ceiling if Rose becomes
a tier one superstar.   Though even in that instance, the Bosh move may
lead to a higher ceiling if it leads to LeBron following.   

Bulls fans will bristle at the idea of trading away Rose, but if he
doesn't become a tier one superstar then that's exactly what they
should do given that they can acquire a borderline tier one superstar
at a position that's a greater fit who's still young enough to have six
plus years in his prime.   So how much do you believe in Rose?   He's
going to need to be a star's star to make it worth passing up a trade
like this.  He may do just that. 

So leave your comments below and let me have it, I know I'm asking for it.

Comments

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  • Did someone steal your brain and replace it with Sam Smith's?

  • Doug I don't mind the idea of trading Rose for tier one superstar, but tier two superstar. Bosh is clearly not borderline top tier superstar as there's reason why his team won 30 games or something like that. Let's say we did this though which I would be ok with even though Im not in love with this deal. You have two pressing issues: one can Hinrich play like he did this year? Im not so sure he can as we terrific in the playoffs, but I think main reason was he was out half of the season. He was able to have fresh legs and run like maniac out there, but full season he won't be able to do maintain how he played. Second you would have to change this whole system as Hinrich won't be able to play fast pace offense. Thus Vinny Del Negro looks like complete idiot and your 2009-2010 season probably sucks. Thus this could throw off many free agents. If your going to go after guy to lead your team that you will trade Rose for you need to call the Hornets and ask about Paul. Maybe talk back couple bad contracts. They might be tempted too do that trade

  • You have trust that Del Negro coming from Run n Gun Suns team can devise system to work. Here are some of the guys I rather have on my team: Roy,Wade,Yao,Billups,Melo,Lebron,Kobe,Harris,Howard,Durant,Griffin,Granger,Paul,West,Parker,Deron,Jefferson,

  • I assume were talking salary too here where as Bosh will get 23 million Durant will only get 15 million and other players such as Deron,Roy, etc

  • Doug, you can't compare Wade's 07-08 season to Bosh though because Wade was injured most of the season while Bosh wasn't. Bosh simply is a very overrated player who is considered very good atm due to the shortage in great frontcourt players. He'd be lucky to be an allstar in the 90s.

  • He played fairly injured though as his stats are far worse. I mean his team was also beyond terrible. They were tanking and full of d-league quality players. Hard to really make that comparison especially when you consider how much better miami was in one year with little adjustments since Beasley wasn't utilized all that much.

  • I would never trade Rose, no matter how good we supposedly get.

  • As for the idea itself, I was actually thinking about it, not awhile go. I mean only in 06-07, with basically this core, minus Rose, we all talked about how we needed that one post player and to think that we could get a post player and have that same core in 06-07, would of been amazing. Then again, many teams became MUCH better and Deng hasn't lived up to those expectations one bit, so doesn't look like there is anyway it would work. Bosh is simply not good enough. Now if it was a KG or Duncan caliber type player who can also make your defense look great, then I'd definitely consider.

  • That's not true. Gordon, imo, is a great fit alongside Rose. The thing with Bosh, is again, he's quite overrated. As for Rose, I definitely see him as a top 10 player. I mean the only ones I definitely would put ahead of him is CP3, Lebron, Wade, Dwight, Roy, Durant. That's it imo. I mean Kobe, kg, Duncan, are all up there in age. I don't know, I just see that kind of player in Rose, so no I definitely wouldn't do the trade as I said, although it's interesting to think about. Now if it was for KG a few years back at least, I'd heavily consider, especially at the time, since KG was considered the missing piece that would brought us to the top.

  • Well, as you saw with the case of 06-07 bulls team, same size guard, yet part of one of the best defensive teams in the league. As you mentioned a few times in the past as well, defense in the paint is far more important. As long as we have that one lockdown perimeter defender, perimeter defense is easy to deal with imo.
    As for Rose, I believe most treat him as a top 10 player already because not only does he have the potential, but also the drive and work ethic that players like Steve Francis and Stephon Marbury didn't. Personally, I believe there's a good chance Rose is a top 10 player, while Bosh isn't imo. Not to mention the only reasons he is considered a top 3 big man in the future imo, is again, due to the scarcity of great big man that there once were like say the 90s as oppossed to now where it is far more perimeter oriented.

  • Well, as you saw with the case of 06-07 bulls team, same size guard, yet part of one of the best defensive teams in the league. As you mentioned a few times in the past as well, defense in the paint is far more important. As long as we have that one lockdown perimeter defender, perimeter defense is easy to deal with imo.
    As for Rose, I believe most treat him as a top 10 player already because not only does he have the potential, but also the drive and work ethic that players like Steve Francis and Stephon Marbury didn't. Personally, I believe there's a good chance Rose is a top 10 player, while Bosh isn't imo. Not to mention the only reasons he is considered a top 3 big man in the future imo, is again, due to the scarcity of great big man that there once were like say the 90s as oppossed to now where it is far more perimeter oriented.

  • Sorry, had trouble posting.
    Anyhow, I mean Rose has all the tools to be a good defender as well. I expect him to be as good as Hinrich defensively when it is all said and done. Deng has also improved his defense very well. However, you definitely make a good point about Bosh trade. I still wouldn't do it because, even if Rose is overrated due to his upside, if we were to trade him, I think we could get a much better player than Bosh. Hell I'd rather trade for duncan and even with his age I think our core plus him should be good enough for a contender.

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