This is not a mock draft. I don't care what order the players go in as that relies on predicting with other teams will do. This is the order I would take the players in and the order in which I believe they'll be successful.
Also, players not on this list are left off because I haven't looked at
them, not because I think they are necessarily worse. I'm sure there
are players outside of this list that would have made it had I scouted
everyone in the NCAA in detail. So when a year comes around, look at
this list and see how far off I am among the players on it not the ones
who aren't.
Finally, players in a tier have similar upside to me with a relatively
slim gap between them. I'd take any player in the tier over another
depending on the fit of the team making the pick. I wouldn't pass a
player in a higher tier for a player in a lower tier most likely. The
gap between tiers shrinks considerably as the tiers get higher in
number though.
Tier 1:
1: Blake Griffin - All the mock draft sites have him as #1, and they're
all right. He's a stud in the making most likely. Not a superstar
stud, but maybe the only player whom I think will definitely be an
all-star.
Tier 2:
2: Tyreke Evans - Still young enough and inexperienced enough to have
major upwards potential. Creates great separation when driving to the
basket. Only needs to improve his jumper to become a great player at
the next level.
3: Ricky Rubio - Has unsurpassed court vision, but he doesn't have
great athleticism and may not be able to defend. He's hard to gauge
because of that, but he's the best passer I've watched in the draft
4: James Harden - Has an all around superb game. He'll need to improve
his jumper some, but he's a good slasher, good ball handler, good
defender, and has no real weaknesses. Not athletic enough to have a
superstar ceiling
5: Jonny Flynn - If I had balls, I'd list Flynn as high as #3 or #4, he
needs to improve his jumper, but other than that he has all the tools
to be a dominant PG in the NBA. However, Rubio has better court vision
and is younger and Harden has such a high floor that I felt compelled
to put Flynn behind them.
Tier 3:
6: DeMar DeRozan - Things start to get tricky in tier three. Has a lot
of athleticism, nice slashing, good mid range game. The things he
lacks will improve with experience though probably never a three point
shooter
7: Jordan Hill - Things start to get tricky here. Hill is pretty raw
in many respects, but he's athletic with legit size and has post moves
and the beginning of an offensive game, he can also play man and help
defense. Still will need to improve considerably on the next level
8: Hasheem Thabeet - You're getting a one way player, and ont op of
that, you may only be getting him as a help defender and not even a
great man defender, maybe he improves his offense as well, but I
wouldn't count on it
9: James Johnson - He's either going to be caught as a tweener or he'll be a mismatch nightmare for opposing teams
Tier 4:
10: Ty Lawson - His age, size and lack of extreme athleticism are his
only negatives, everything else is simply awesome including college
production
11: Jrue Holiday - He's this high largely based on what he did in high
school, what others tell me, and his age. Strictly based on what he
did at UCLA he'd be about five spots lower at least
12: Gerald Henderson - He doesn't have a great ceiling, but he has a
high floor and will at least bring defense and athleticism, think
Ronnie Brewer
Tier 5:
13: Brandon Jennings - Much like Holiday, he's here largely based on
reputation and age rather than anything he did internationally
14: Jeff Teague - If he could prove he's a PG, then he could shoot up
into tier 2 or 3. However, I don't think he is, and he's just too
small to be a SG in the NBA. Still a great change of pace guy to come
in with the second unit and dominate the ball with his speed and
scoring instincts
15: Stephen Curry - I'd like to give Curry the mad love everyone else
does, but in the end, he's not athletic enough to do what he does in
college in the NBA. He's going to be a role player
16: Dejuan Blair - He'll be a good role player, but there's not much ceiling and the knee has to concern you
17: BJ Mullens - he's the high upside big man, but he'll be a project with a good chance never to reach that upside
18: Terrence Williams - he could develop into an outstanding role
player, he has the athleticism to be a great defender, rebounder, and
transition player, but he'll be a 4th or 5th option offensively when on
the floor
19: Earl Clark - Has a very high ceiling, but also has a low floor.
Doesn't presently do anything good enough to make me feel he can
consistently contribute in any given area, but he does everything good
enough to have potential to be good at it later
Tier 6:
20: Tyler Hansbrough - Hansbrough plays hard, scored well in college,
but doesn't have the athleticism or reach to translate to PF at the
next level, should be a role player but not much ceiling
21: Eric Maynor - he'll be a low caliber starting PG or an excellent
backup PG, can run a team and has legit NBA 3 point range, no defense,
no athleticism though
22: Austin Daye - Has the upside to be higher, but he's so frail and so
far away with his body, great shooter, great height, nothing else though
23: Sam Young - Low ceiling, but should be able to come in and be a defensive role player, good transition player
24: Marcus Thornton - great scorer in college, used to shooting off
screens, but not athletic enough or big enough for his game to
translate well, also will struggle to defend
25: Wayne Ellington - great shooter, has good size, but not a great
athlete, not strong, not a defender, still has role player potential
Tier 7:
26: Chase Budinger - he brings shooting, but he's not even that great at shooting
27: Omri Casspi - I hear he's killing people in workouts, so maybe I'm
wrong, but watching him I just didn't think he had the athleticism,
size, or skill to play in the NBA
Filed under: Draft Coverage
Tags: big, board, chicago bulls, doug, draft, nba, nba draft
Except that Harden is much quicker than Salmons, at least according to the pre-draft measurements, and he's unselfish. I think he's actually a lot more athletic than people think, he just plays so under control and doesn't really force the matter.
According to Givoni's mock, Hill is falling and Johnson is rising. Assuming the Bucks are out of contention for a PF, and if we can still manage to get the #11 pick, he could be there for us.
He's a high percentage project, though. He loves the game, has a great work ethic and attention span, and has already shown an ability to learn and improve at the college level in a kind of crappy situation (being recruited by Lute Olsen, only for that whole soap opera to unfold).
He's already a really good rebounder, and will be able to contribute there right away. He's also a very good finisher, and his shot is really getting strong, so he should be a good pick and roll/pop player. And even though his defensive fundamentals are so raw, he has the tools to be a good defender from the post to the perimeter. I can't overstate how important being able to defend a wide variety of PF styles is in today's NBA.
His game just seems such a good fit next to Rose and Noah.
He's working on his shot, though, and it's coming along well. I see him as more the guy who worms his way through defenders to get to the rim (like, surprisingly, Amare does a lot of the time), rather than the guy who just powers his way in.