Recession confession: Lamenting reality

Recession confession:  Lamenting reality

Like Bill Maher, I too dream of a recession to thwart the continuation of our national nightmare.  As Maher famously says, we can survive another recession, we can't survive another four years.

Yes, my 401K (and yours) is doing well, but it did well during the Obama administration.  And President Obama didn't disparage people of varying nationalities and ethnicities and he didn't support Nazism or white supremacy.

He also didn't put children in cages and he understood the national security implications of global warming.

Enough is enough, folks.  If we continue to take our profits and turn a blind eye to Trump's culture war, collusion with Russia, undermining of our institutions and crimes against decency, then we are complicit and co-conspirators.

Historically, we're (over)due for a recession. Last week's yield curve "inversion" sparked fears and an 800 point retreat in the Dow. Fueling that fear is the uncertainty of a madman in the Oval Office.

That inversion - when interest paid on a 10-year Bond is less than on a 2-year Bond - was an intraday event and it was only by a basis point or two. Kind of like a long fly ball that, at the last moment veers foul of the upright in left field.

In any event, that indicator is only a glimpse into what could be and it could be a couple years away. Too late to discourage Trumpsters.

Waste Management picks up garbage, a by product of our economic engine and they're at capacity. Also at (and over) capacity is commercial freight. Shippers are now paying surcharges above standard freight rates because our trucks and trains are full. Two reliable indicators of an economy chuggin' along just fine.

Two more sectors, retail and home improvement are represented by Target and Lowes. Both just posted better than expected Q2 earnings and Q3 guidance.

It's true, there are signs of a slowdown, especially in the manufacturing sector.  Orders for recreational vehicles, a little-known,  but accurate predictor of recessions since the 1980's are down.

A recession (generally considered to be 2 consecutive quarters of contraction) will eventually hit. It won't be in the next 6 months and it seems unlikely to happen before November, 2020.

Trump tweeted out the comments of whacko evangelical conspiracy guy, Wayne Allyn Root, who cast Trump as the King of Israel and the 2nd coming of God.

Even if a recession hits, don't expect rational actions from irrational people.

Lyle L. of Glencoe, IL told me that he wrote in his dog's name on his 2016 presidential ballot.   I'm pretty sure he voted for Trump.

Like many folks, Lyle didn't want to admit voting for Trump.   That's one of the things that makes current polls unreliable. That and the fact that cell phones and social media make updating methodology and sample selection difficult.

It's easy for people to say that they prefer Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders over Trump now, before either is an actual candidate.  It could be a far cry from where that candidate might stand after a few months of name calling, race baiting and fear mongering.

Difficult as it may be, remember that Donald J. Trump IS the President of the United States.  He has the power, albeit illegitimate and/or illegal, to undermine an election.   As we've seen, there isn't anything that he won't do, collusion and obstruction be damned.

Thanks to Mitch McConnell denying Merrick Garland a hearing and the pretend hearing of a rapist, Donald Trump can do pretty much anything to which John Roberts will turn his blind eye.

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