Laying odds on the Chicago Bears' next head coach

Laying odds on the Chicago Bears' next head coach
Montreal Alouettes head coach Marc Trestman considered the favorite to land Bears job.

Phil Emery has been both criticized and respected for the thorough nature of his coaching search. He has cast a wide net, but Bears fans hope his “catch” had better not turn out to be a flounder.

Meanwhile, many questions remain. Is Emery trying to gather intelligence on other teams, or perhaps attempting to learn what others think about his own team? Alternatively, could the man simply be doing his due diligence or biding his time until the candidate he wants is available?

Those are questions only Emery can answer for sure. So let’s get down to assessing the probabilities on each of the 13 known candidates.

And shhh . . . don’t tell Jimmy Johnson.

The Favorite: Marc Trestman

Why is he the favorite? Because J.J. told us, of course. Whether that was a drunk-tweet or not, the fact that Johnson, who is close friends with Trestman, felt compelled to make that prediction implies that Trestman may have said something to him.

And that may not sit well with Emery. Still, Trestman is a good candidate because he works well with QBs and has significant NFL experience. The success he has had in the CFL is gravy.

ODDS: 2-1

Rick Dennison

Jay Cutler said Dennison was a “great” candidate who also just happens to have been the offensive coordinator when Cutler had his only Pro Bowl season. With his ties to Brandon Marshall, Cutler and even Jeremy Bates from his days with Denver, he has to be considered the next most likely candidate.

ODDS: 3-1

Tom Clements

Personally, Clements is not one of my favorites, but I just get the sense that Emery is seriously considering him, and the Bears have had interest in him in the past. He doesn’t call the plays in Green Bay, he’s a Packer (that’s strike one right there!), and he doesn’t command a room well.

ODDS: 4-1

Mike McCoy, Pete Carmichael, Mike Sullivan, Darrell Bevell

Starting with the next string of candidates, I feel you can lump them all together, as no one can say with any certainty that one is more likely to be selected than another. There are plusses and minuses with each guy.

ODDS: 5-1

Bruce Arians

My personal favorite. I just get the sense that Emery may feel he is too old to have the required energy for the job, and his recent hospitalizations probably do not help that perception.

Plus, I just don’t think Emery wants a former head coach—even an interim one. Still, he’s a legitimate candidate and I would love to see him hired.

ODDS: 6-1

Joe DeCamillis, Dave Toub, Keith Armstrong, Mike Priefer

I have not grouped these four together just because they are ST coaches, although I do think that Emery would prefer an offensive-minded guy. I just think it’s a long-shot for any of them to get the job.

As unfortunate as this may seem, Armstrong may have been a “Rooney Rule” interview. Toub is too closely aligned to Lovie Smith, although I would love to see him get an opportunity, as he has earned it.

ODDS: 7-1

Mike Singletary

This is not going to happen. I believe that he was interviewed as a favor to the McCaskey’s. He’s also the only defensive-minded candidate on the list, and if Emery was truly considering a defensive-oriented HC, there are better candidates out there.

ODDS: 20-1

Filed under: Head Coaching Search

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