In Part 1 of this series, I took a look at the Bears’ own 14 free agents who are set to hit the open market to try and predict who you might expect to see back in Chicago in 2012. In Part 2, I’ll take a detailed look at the external market to see who’s available and who might actually be on Phil Emery’s wish list.
In order to do this, we have to consider a number of things. Most importantly being where the Bears’ current needs are, what the salary cap looks like, and who they may target in the draft. The draft will be secondary, as the team will re-evaluate that game-plan following the start of free agency.
Sidenote: 2012 NFL free agency begins on Tuesday, March 13 at 3:00 PM CST. The 2012 NFL Draft begins on Thursday, April 26-28 (starting time TBD). The Scouting Combine will be held February 22-28.
Because there are expected to be between 500 and 600 free agents available beginning March 13 (573 according to Pro Football Focus), I decided to take a look at where the Bears’ main priorities lie and list my top five players in each position.
And although I will highlight every “position of need”—as defined by me—I will then target the top five positions of need and project who from my lists the Bears could target.
Because trying to run the numbers now would be an effort in futility, and given the fact that there are about 50 pages in the current CBA which dictate the salary cap, how it may be affected and what ultimately counts against the cap, I’ll throw out the Bears’ projected number for you to just keep it in the back of your mind while perusing these lists.
And by no means should you think I’m suggesting the Bears will actually make a move at each position. They may only be able to make one or two across the board.
The Bears’ are currently projected to be $20 million below the estimated 2012 salary cap based on currently committed dollars. Resigning their own free agents will eat into that space and cutting a few others will add to it. So keep that in mind. They also have just over $7 million in carry-over room from 2011, which I expect them to apply to the league to use.
Having said that . . .
What do they need?
At the risk of sounding a tad cynical, what don’t they need? I could probably make a case for just about every position on the roster, apart from kicker and punter. But here are the positions I would focus on: wide receiver, offensive tackle, offensive guard, tight end, backup quarterback, defensive end, cornerback, linebacker, and safety.
Yeah, that’s a lot. But again, if the Bears can bring in one or two impact payers at any of those positions in free agency—particularly at wide receiver—I’ll be happy. That’s keeping in mind that your backup QB is not an impact player by nature. If they can get a role player or two, in addition to an impact guy, again, I’m happy.
So, moving on . . .
Who’s available?
Understand up front that if the Bears, say, bring in one of the top wideouts in free agency and also get another top-tier offensive lineman, it would completely change the caliber of player they would then be able to look it in another position class. It may stop them from looking any further at all.
So the fact that all of my position classes below are populated with the top players—in my opinion—available, is slightly deceiving. But without knowing how everything will play out, I can’t say the Bears won’t target a receiver and a defensive end, or a defensive end and a cornerback. Hence, only the top players are listed in each position class.
Top five free agent wide receivers of 2012:
- Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
- Vincent Jackson, Chargers
- Marques Colston, Saints
- Stevie Johnson, Bills
- Brandon Lloyd, Rams
Top five free agent offensive lineman of 2012:
- Carl Nicks, G, Saints
- Evan Mathis, G, Eagles
- Demetrius Bell, T, Bills
- Chris Myers, C, Texans
- Jared Gaither, T, Chargers
Top five free agent tight ends of 2012:
- Jermichael Finley, Packers
- Scott Chandler, Bills
- Fred Davis, Redskins
- John Carlson, Seahwaks
- Jeremy Shockey, Panthers
Top five free agent (backup) quarterbacks of 2012:
- Kyle Orton, Chiefs
- Donovan McNabb, FA
- Chad Henne, Dolphins
- Shaun Hill, Lions
- David Carr, Giants
Top five free agent defensive ends of 2012:
- Mario Williams, Texans
- Cliff Avril, Lions
- Robert Mathis, Colts
- Calais Campbell, Cardinals
- John Abraham, Falcons
Top five free agent cornerbacks of 2012:
- Lardarius Webb, Ravens
- Cortland Finnegan, Titans
- Brent Grimes, Falcons
- Brandon Carr, Chiefs
- Carlos Rogers, 49ers
Top five free agent linebackers of 2012:
- Stephen Tulloch, ILB, Lions
- Curtis Lofton, ILB, Falcons
- Jarret Johnson, OLB, Ravens
- D'Qwell Jackson, ILB, Browns
- Ahmad Brooks, OLB, 49ers
Top five free agent safeties of 2012:
- Tyvon Branch, Raiders
- Thomas DeCoud, Falcons
- Dashon Goldson, 49ers
- LaRon Landry, Redskins
- Michael Griffin, Titans
There you have it. Now, moving on . . .
Who will the Bears target?
Those were difficult lists to compile and will change from person to person, depending who you talk to, so take them for what they’re worth. But, if nothing else, it gives you a snapshot of potential players at each position that could be on Emery and the Bears’ radar. So where do they start?
The bottom line is that the Bears need a wide receiver who can contribute from day one. It’s why I believe they will target a big-name guy in free agency. And, if they’re smart, they’ll also look to draft an early-round receiver they can develop for the future. Having said that . . .
Priority number 1: Wide receiver
While Dwayne Bowe is listed as my top choice for help at the wide receiver position, I also think he may be all but unattainable. The Chiefs have said they want to retain Bowe and may use the franchise tag on either Bowe or CB Brandon Carr. I suspect if they had to do either, it would be used to retain Bowe.
My number two receiver—and I’ll kind of stop here—is the guy I think is most likely to end up in a Chicago Bears’ uniform in 2012, and that’s Vincent Jackson. Jackson (29) is an elite-level receiver, and the Chargers are not expected to use the franchise tag on him due to cap limitations. Other teams who have the space—like the Bears (among others)—are likely to easily outbid San Diego.
Marques Colston could hit the market as the Saints also deal with cap limitations while trying to re-sign QB Drew Brees and, potentially, free agent G Carl Nicks. He’s not the caliber of receiver of Bowe or Jackson but would be a great option if it came down to it.
Stevie Johnson and Brandon Lloyd each come with issues that bumped them to the bottom of my list. Johnson is a little bit of a stereotypical widout and likes himself, perhaps, a little too much (but I could see past that if he were on my team). And Lloyd—a former Bear—has injury concerns but seems to finally developing into a legit receiver.
Priority number 2: Offensive line
Sidenote: this position is probably interchangeable with my number three position (defensive end), but I think the Bears would be better suited to brining in a veteran on the offensive line via free agency and try to draft an impact guy on defense.
While I’m tempted to say I’d want Carl Nicks above the others in my list, I’m resigned to picking based on need—something better suited to free agency than the draft. So, for my money, I’m desperately pursuing left tackle Demetrius Bell to take over for J’Marcus Webb on Jay’s blind side. Bell is above average in pass protection and even better in the run game.
The remaining guys in the priority list would all be solid additions to the Bears’ current unit.
Priority number 3: Defensive end
Like I said, I really do expect the Bears to address this need in the draft if the opportunity presents itself. However, when free agency hits, they won’t know if that will happen or not. So if they find themselves in a position to make a good move toward a top free agent, why not?
Mario Williams ended up on the top of my list based on sack numbers and consistent production alone. The guy consistently notched over ten sacks per season over four seasons before 2011 when he had five through five games only to have his season ended with a groin injury. Given the fact that the Texans performed well without him, they don’t have a ton of pressure to apply the costly franchise tag, and he’ll explore options.
Second on my list is Detroit’s Cliff Avril, who’s been effective on both sides of the line and would give offensive lines absolute fits swapping ends with Julius Peppers. The Lions definitely want to hang onto Avril—and most certainly don’t want to see him in Chicago—but they have cap issues and will need to make some room.
Priority number 4: Backup quarterback
What a totally different dynamic here. Instead of looking at the best of a position, you have to look at, sort of, the best of the worst. Having said that, I fully understand that some of the guys in my list could end up in starting QB roles but just in case . . . I kept good ol’ neck beard in there.
Why not make Kyle an offer. I’m not suggesting you make him an offer he can’t refuse, but maybe you don’t have to. Let’s face it, he wanted to come to Chicago in 2011. Now, granted, he knew he would have the chance to start with Cutler out but if it’s at all a possibility, he has to be your first choice.
I honestly do believe Donovan McNabb is destined to finish out his playing career as a backup (if he chooses to do so that is). So why not come home to Chicago and play a little more ball before going on to the world of former players turned NFL analysts, Donovan?
As far as the rest of the guys in that list, I’d be happy to give any one of them a shot behind Jay.
Priority number 5: Cornerback
Lardarius Webb is a guy the Ravens definitely want to bring back, but the Bears should at least have a conversation with the corner’s agent. And while he’s on the top of my list, like Dwayne Bowe, he’s not as attainable as some others given the fact that he’s a restricted free agent and the Ravens would have to opportunity to match any offer he receives in free agency. (Bowe is not a restricted free agent.)
As for Cortland Finnegan, the Titans are expected to allow him to test the market. He’ll command a hefty price tag but would solidify the position while significantly improving it. The Bears could also clear up the room by allowing a few of their other free agent CBs to walk.
Any of the players in the list above would be an upgrade over Jennings at CB.
You can read our recently published Bears 2012 Mock Draft here!
Filed under: Free Agency, Players
If I had it my way, which is overly optimistic, I sign Vincent Jackson first and then Demetrius Bell. Jackson instantly improves our receiving corps and Bell takes over at left tackle where Webb has been a little too inconsistent for my liking. The only way I don't go after Bell second is if Mario Williams and/or Cliff Avril end up on the market. Both are young and would be huge additions to the line opposite Peppers. And stealing a great defensive end from a rival team is just a little bonus. As far as backup quarterback, I wouldn't mind Orton but I think he will look to start. I wouldn't be surprised if Kansas City held onto him either. McNabb is a nice option too, but I don't know how much he has left in the tank. My personal choice would be Shaun Hill. He has primarily been a backup his career, but he has done a really great job in that role. He has filled in for Stafford and kept the Lions in games. His numbers are pretty good as well and he might be more willing to take a backup role. Cornerback, I think anyone is an upgrade over Jennings, so I have no opinion really. If I had my way we get Jackson at WR, Williams/Avril at DE, and Bell at LT, then get Hill as our backup QB. It'd take a lot of effort and money, but that would be a really great off season. The reason to be optimistic is that McKaskey has recently said there will be no limitations on spending in free agency, and while Emery said he wants to build the team through the draft, he does want to focus on getting some impact pro free agents. I am hopeful they come out like they did when they grabbed Peppers and Moose.
Thanks for the comment, Bill. I love your optimism, and I share it to some degree. But if they got Jackson, Williams/Avril, Bell and Hill it would be a football miracle. The McCaskeys can say there are no limits, but the NFL sets the limit in the form of a salary cap, and even though they're in very good shape right now, they'd probably have to dump a lot to make that kind of room. My perfect world is Bowe and Bell. But Jackson and Bell would be just about as great. Thanks again!
Adam, What is the likelihood that the Bears actually go and get 50% of the players on the list you made. Everything we seem to be hearing from the McCaskey's is that they plan on being quiet in free agency.
I do understand the mentality of being draft oriented, I support it, BUT... we are not young as a team, and the window has 1 maybe 2 years left in it. Isn't it smart to go all out before the inevitable rebuild?
I'm not sure if you're literally asking if they could/would somehow acquire 50% of the players I listed—and I’m honestly not trying to be a smart-ass here—but the likelihood of that is non-existent.
Like I tried to point out in the post, they may make only one or two moves in free agency. My intention was to show who the top players available are at each position the Bears could use some help.
The team does have a good core in place. They have the quarterback, the tail back, excellent special teams, an all-world pass rusher in Peppers, and top-tier linebackers.
Sure, some of those guys are getting old, but they’re still playing at a Pro Bowl level.
From those I have spoken to at Halas Hall, the goal is to make a run in 2012; the best way to do that is to limit the turnover and add a few KEY pieces—namely, wide receiver, o-line and d-line. Maybe even in the secondary (cornerback would be my target).
Going nuts in free agency guarantees you nothing—look at the Eagles last season. It takes time for a team to come together and gel. So, no, I don’t think it’s a good idea to overhaul when your core still has another shot to make a run, which these guys do.
And that is why I think you’re correct in saying it doesn’t seem like the Bears are looking to go crazy in 2012 free agency. Yes, they have to plan for the future, but as you said, they’d like to do that through the draft. Doesn’t make sense to get ahead of themselves and overhaul before needed.
Thanks for the comment, BTW!