Where's the (Tea) Party?

Given the enthusiasm and intensity we see on the Right at the moment, I'm a bit surprised that the conservative candidates in the Senate and gubernatorial races aren't generating more support. In fact, it's not even close. It's not that I expected, say, a Patrick Hughes to take down a Republican like Mark Kirk; but I did assume it would be an interesting race.

But the new Tribune polls tell us a different story. In the Senate race, Kirk is getting 41% of GOP voters who consider themselves "very conservative." Hughes is getting only 11%. On the gubernatorial side, the two candidates who have sought the conservative voters the most are Adam Andrzejewski and Dan Proft. Yet both are only getting about 1 in 10 "very conservative" Illinois Republicans. Meanwhile, Andy McKenna is pulling in 18%, and Jim Ryan 14%.

At least in the gubernatorial race, it's not a huge difference, but this was the rationale behind the Hughes, Andrzejewski and Proft campaigns: That there was a significant number of very conservative voters out there who were looking for their candidate.

Some of this I think we can explain by simple practical politics. Running a darkhorse Senate race against a well-known U.S. legislator does not fall under the definition of easy. Same goes for the gubernatorial side. Voters, even "very conservative" ones, go for the name they know. Add a healthy dose of fundraising from big donors in-state and out, and it becomes a Herculian effort.

But then there are the extenuating circumstances. On the Senate side, Mark Kirk all but asked to be targeted from the Right when he voted for cap-and-trade legislation in the House. Conservatives were already suspicious of him before his vote, but at that point it seemed as if Kirk, one of only a handful of Republicans to vote for cap-and-trade, was prepared to go along with Obama Democrats.

In the governor's race, you have the same anti-Democratic anger out there as with the Senate, but then you add the Illinois-specific circumstances. The Republican Party has been getting thumped by mediocre Democratic candidates for years; the state is an economic and budgetary tailspin; and conservatives were already organizing with the Tea Party protests last year.

Yet...where's the party?

I bring it up because a lot national attention this year will be focused on the Tea Party movement, and whether there's any political muscle behind their protests. So far in Illinois, we can say that there isn't much.

One final point: In the gubernatorial race, Proft and Andrzejewski garner 13% combined in the latest Tribune poll. While several points below the frontrunner McKenna, at 19%, it shows that conservative voters in Illinois aren't without political muscle. In fact, were one candidate to be at 13%, we would have to count him as a possibility right now. As it is, the conservative vote has split, which will do them no good in the end. One wonders what Proft or Andrzejewski would be at today if the other had dropped out and given his endorsement.

(Disclosure: I worked on the Proft campaign last year.)