NFL Will Suffer Losses With A Lockout in 2011....

The NFL is undoubtedly the golden goose of this era of professional sports.  Although there are reports that attendance will drop for a third consecutive year, even in the greatest recession since the great depression the NFL still is still labeled a "cash cow" as far as revenue is concerned.  Last year NFL team values fell 2% for the first time since Forbes Magazine began tracking the NFL's finances in 1998, which with all things concerned is outstanding even with a loss in 2009.  However with very little publication currently, the NFL and the NFLPA is entrenched in an ongoing labor dispute over the new collective bargaining agreement.  The current CBA expires in March of 2011, and according to all reports there is a very high likelihood that the NFL could indeed not be around for a 2011 season unless a new CBA is agreed on.  
 
There are many reasons for why the talks between the parties remain far apart whether it be a reduction in players salaries by a reported 18% or balancing the difference a first round pick should make over a ten year veteran of the league.  There are changes that need to be made on both sides of the aisle yet compromise seems to be at a standstill.  This is not good for the NFL and last night's demonstration by the New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings following the national anthem raising one finger to the roof of the Superdome only made matters more prevalent.
 
There could be no NFL in 2011, and the rumors are starting to become more visible each week.   
 
The NFL is the only sports league with uninterrupted play since 1987 as Major League Baseball had a strike (1994), the NHL had lockouts (1994-1995, 2004-2005), and the NBA had a lockout as well (1998-1999).  To say that this is why the NFL is indeed the most popular sport and highest grossing sport amongst the other sports is indeed a fair opinion, but can the NFL be hurt if at all with any sort of work stoppage happening?  If history teaches us anything, it will.
 

Major League Baseball went on strike on August 11, 1994 canceling the World Series for the first time since the early 1900's and costing players millions of dollars and management of the teams themselves over one billion dollars.  The heart of the issue was the salary cap that baseball's owners wanted to save the smaller market ball clubs from folding based on the assumption that they would not be able to compete with the larger market teams.  The players of the sport walked out on their own saying that the salary cap was a way for owners to clean up their own disparity problems with no benefit for the players.  
 
The fallout of this 232 day strike was dramatic drops in both average attendance and operating revenue.  When the fans think that the sport they love turned it's back on it and greed injected itself into the conversation, fans stopped going.  Baseball averaged over 31,000 fans a game in 1994 which dropped to just over 25,500 fans per game post-strike.  Baseball did not catch back up to pre-strike attendance figures and operating revenues until the early 2000's when something we now shun (steroids) helped revive America's past time back to where it once was.  Like it or not, without the steroid era baseball would most certainly be no where near its attendance figures today averaging over 30,000 per game.
 

The 1998-1999 NBA lockout began the season after Michael Jordan retired (for a second time) from the game and forced basketball to shorten its season that year to a 50 game schedule.  The All Star Game was not held as the league started back up in February of 1999 with the San Antonio Spurs winning their first NBA title in team history.  The heart of the lockout was the owners thought the players were making too much which was caused by loopholes in the CBA of 1983 most notably the "Larry Bird exception."  Owners wanted to limit salaries on max players and modify the pay scale for rookies which of course the NBPA rejected on principle. 204 days later NBA basketball returned, there was a minority of fans who supported what the players stood for but the overall product suffered as attendance did drop, TV ratings dropped, and overall revenue for the league dropped.
 

The NHL has had labor problems twice since the last NFL labor dispute, both resulting in both dropped attendance, dropped revenue and television ratings plummeting to where the NHL for a long time could not get a legitimate television contract.  Teams before 2004 spent on average 76% of their gross revenues on players' salaries which was by far the highest among the four major sports in this country.  Of course owners looked to cut players salaries with a "cost certainty" method headed by Commissioner Gary Bettman, but the NHLPA rejected all accounts of "cost certainty" because they felt Bettman was trying to impose a hard salary cap which did not benefit the interests of the players.  310 days later the NHL and NHLPA agreed on a new CBA and got back to playing in front of small crowds and the NHL has never truly been the same but has slowly crawled back into the collective conscious of the American sporting public.
 
What all three of these sports witnessed was a backlash by fans and struggles to return to normal for several years (some sports still not where they once were).  What the NFL should realize that especially in today's times, fans have extremely small attention spans and are not as passionate at they once were about their sports.  Fans know that sports today are all about business rather than what is best for the consumer.  Looking at the average ticket costs of sports now they have indeed out priced their own fan bases and people are more likely to stay home and watch games with the advancements made in HD technology.
 
In fact I've caught myself giving up free tickets to sporting events in town because I prefer my own couch and 46 inch television where I can get a better view and my own personal bathroom is down the hall.  If in fact the recent news of possible attendance loss is true for a third straight year, the NFL should really look into keeping itself as high as it is right now and get a deal done.  If indeed people would rather spend money on a better television than a season ticket, that is the first sign that fans will not stick with football if the greedy owners and greedy players cannot come to some sort of resolution.  If fans are leaving now (although in small numbers), what would happen if football went away?
 

Football is not as untouchable as some may believe it to be.  Football is still a sport like baseball, basketball and hockey.  People/fans will find other ways of entertainment if football goes away, and the relationship with fans and sports continues to grow sour each year the price of sports goes up when more and more people are struggling with their own personal financial troubles.  Football can learn from the mistakes of the past.
 
If indeed the consumer is always right, the NFL and the NFLPA better agree to something before the March deadline or else the consumer they rely on so much could go away for good.
 
-RoCk
 
Rock Mamola is the Associate Producer of The Mully And Hanley Show and co-host of The Joe O And Rock Show on WSCR 670AM The Score
 
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