I was trying to remember the first time I wrote about residential real estate. I mean the real kind, not the way I wrote about condo-hotels back when those were allegedly going to be the next thing.
It was two years ago as a staff writer at a trade publication for commercial real estate. Unfortunately, the story was never saved on the pub's website and the only place I can find it is through NNP Residential's blog here.
My editor urged me to write the story and I think he had written the headline "New Condos. New Buyers?" long before I started work on it. He wanted someone to out-and-out say the condo market would crash, but surprisingly no one did. No one said the Spire wasn't going to happen, either.
Looking back, a couple interesting points were made that are still true:
1. We're kind of past the industrial building renovation. Theres enough new construction that people aren't paying for fringe area lofts.
2. People are observing the financing situation more carefully if they're lending at all.
3. The most robust markets are still the first-timers and the empty nesters.
4. It was a good idea to discourage condo resales, since they would have been a difficult proposition just a few months after the article was written.
Some concepts went by the wayside:
1. We may be back into a "normal pattern" for selling, but it's the normal pattern of a downturn.
2. If condo salesmen are only making money on the last 20 percent of the development, they probably aren't making much these days.
3. No one's buying into the celebrity-built condo fad - I'm not sure Santiago Calatrava, who designed the Spire, can really fall into the mainstream celeb category anyway.
4. You actually can get deals at auctions now, whereas two years ago it usually cost more to go to an auction.
While many of the people in this story have moved companies since it was written, I'd love to get ahold of them and find out what their hindsight is on this. In general, it seemed like a mild prediction at best of what was to come.
2 Comments
Sharon Schneider said:
Can you talk more about getting a deal at a massive auction? how do you develop a condo auction strategy? Will people be nervous and hesitant at first, so you can get a good deal on the first couple, or will people be bidding them up in the beginning and the good deals will come after the first few have gone?
Also, if some units are finished including some upgrades and some are unfinished (with the builder promising to provide "standard" finishing features), what is the better bet? Are you crazy to bid on an unfinished unit or is that a better deal?
So many (more) questions, I would love to see you write a post on this topic. Thanks much!!!
Maureen Wilkey said:
Here's a post that came out before the site hit beta: http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/rent-or-buy/2009/05/going-going-gone-auctions-are-a-good-way-to-get-a-deal.html
I would recommend looking at the websites of Inland(http://www.inlandgroup.com/ireac/), Sheldon Good and Co. (http://www.sheldongood.com/) and Rick Levin and Associates (http://www.ricklevin.com/) before you get started. The deal you get really depends on what you buy-- you can get something as simple as a home site or as spectacular as a penthouse, it's all in what you bid on. But I would take Paul's advice- don't get in an emotional bidding war. He assured me the auctioneer would make sure people were comfortable before the bidding started, so don't be afraid to talk to them! He also said it's not a bad idea to go to one just to watch first and then buy on your second auction.
Thanks for your interest, Sharon!
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