Packed airport at Thanksgiving? Not sure yet, travel companies say

But there are conflicting predictions.

The Air Transport Association, an airline industry trade group, released a new forecast Monday predicting a 4 percent drop over last year in Thanksgiving travel.

"It is increasingly apparent that the economic head winds facing the airlines and their customers are anything but behind us," said James C. May, the group's president and CEO. He said the unemployment rate jumping above 10 percent last month has affected consumer buying decisions.

Although airlines have deeply discounted fares over the past several months, U.S. airlines have struggled this year with declining traffic during the recession.

The group said with fewer flights, planes are likely to be full over Thanksgiving.

Bing Travel fare tracker Joel Grus said Thanksgiving fares were down about 22 percent in August this year compared to August 2008--but the numbers may be misleading.

Oil prices were high last summer, Grus said, which caused Thanksgiving fares to be higher for people who purchased them in the summer than in the weeks leading up to Thanksgiving.
This year is more typical of the holiday fare trend: The prices tend to increase as you get closer to the holiday.

"There is some appetite out there for purchasing air travel. If you judge by prices, we're not seeing the same weakness that we were seeing last holidays," Grus said.

Atle Skalleberg, vice president of marketing for Student Universe, an online student travel agency, said he's seen a double-digit increase in the number of Thanksgiving trip bookings and Internet searches for ticket prices. He said many students find going home for Thanksgiving mandatory, and "it's about getting home at any price."

Meanwhile, on the ground, experts expect a boost in car and train travel.

"People are starting to travel again. We're seeing a resurgence," AAA Chicago spokeswoman Beth Mosher said. "We're seeing driving trips, flying trips, longer trips. People are taking advantage of deals."

Meanwhile, Amtrak may see an increase in holiday travel compared to last year, Amtrak spokesman Marc Magliari said. Last year, Amtrak saw 659,184 rides nationwide during the week of Thanksgiving, down from 666,716 rides in 2007. Magliari said Amtrak's route from Chicago to St. Louis already has seen an increase in ridership from last year.

That's the route Jessi Odenbach of Lincoln Park plans to take to see her parents in St. Louis. Odenbach, 27, said she prefers the five-hour train ride to a chaotic airport. And not going home wasn't an option.

Said Odenbach: "I typically go home every year for Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving is a must." tswartz@tribune.com, AP CONTRIBUTED.