Danger hours: At what time does crime happen most in Chicago?

Incidents decline every hour after 10 p.m. until hitting a low point in the 7 a.m. hour, according to 2008 stats, after which violence climbs again.

While risk likely depends on what neighborhood you're in and other circumstances, such as how well lit and populated the area is, experts say people should be alert and aware of their surroundings even at hours they don't presume are dangerous.

"The most vulnerable time is when people's guard is down," said Tim Critser, head instructor at Self Defense Centers in North Center.

 Val Alba of Albany Park, who said he was "beat up pretty bad" three years ago after leaving the bars on Rush and Division streets at about 3 a.m., said he was surprised to learn that the 9 p.m. hour has the most reported violent crimes.

"I would have thought [the most dangerous time] was closing time," said Alba, 34, after RedEye informed him of the police statistics. Alba said he and a friend were walking to their car near Clark Street and North Avenue when a group of men jumped them and stole their watches, cell phones and wallets.

The high-profile muggings this summer in Lincoln Park and Lakeview, most of which happened from 2 to 5 a.m., according to news reports, also indicate a tendency for early morning attacks. And police statistics show most murders in the city happen from midnight to 4 a.m.

But look at other violent incidents, such as the videotaped beating death last month of 16-year-old Derrion Albert in Roseland, which took place about 3 p.m., or the beating in Edgewater of a 14-year-old boy a week later, which happened about 7:45 p.m., and the assumption of Chicago's most dangerous hour becomes fuzzier.

Related: Derrion Albert Deserved Better... How We Can Help Chicago Teens in Trouble

Arthur Lurigio, professor of psychology and criminal justice at Loyola University, said making a blanket statement about the most violent hour in the city doesn't tell the whole story because crime depends on a confluence of factors--and in a city as diverse as Chicago, the timing will likely vary depending on where you are.

"There are multiple factors: gender, race, age, class and location, location, location," Lurigio said. "No one can say: 8:45 p.m., go in the house and don't come out."

But Lurigio said he isn't surprised that 9 p.m. registers the most reported violent incidents. The sheer number of people out at 9 p.m. is higher than at 2 a.m. or 3 a.m., so there simply are more targets, he said.

The evening also offers prime opportunity for crime because people out of work and school for the day are engaged in social interactions, it's dark and there are fewer guardians on the street keeping an eye out, Lurigio said.

People also tend to drink more alcohol in the evening, and by 9 p.m. they might reach an "optimal level of intoxication" where they're disinhibited but not so intoxicated that their motor skills are reduced, Lurigio said.

"If people drink in excess, they become dazed, but before that, they can become quite animated and aggressive," Lurigio said. "It makes it more likely that people who are prone to violence will act out, and intoxicated victims are more likely to put up a struggle."

Nick Goodwin, a police officer with Chicago's Department of Aviation who also has worked as a bouncer for more than a decade, said some violence can be avoided if people are more aware of the situation they're in.

"If you're walking around Lincoln Park West at 4 in the morning, all you're going to see is the occasional partygoer trying to get home," Goodwin said. "If you walk down Fulton Street at 7 p.m. on a Thursday, business down there is empty."

Goodwin said he was attacked on a Blue Line "L" train at about 10 p.m. several years ago, before he was a police officer, by two young men who broke a 40-ounce beer bottle over his head and punched him in the face before making off with his baseball cap.

He said his gut told him something was amiss, but he wasn't quick enough to get himself out of the situation.

"With the benefit of what I know now, I would have gotten up and moved," said Goodwin, who also works as a self-defense instructor at Self Defense Centers. "Every 30 or 45 seconds, look around; don't be afraid to look people in the eye."

Rachel Mueller of Lakeview said she feels vulnerable any time after 10 p.m. She said she always makes sure she's in a cab or walking with a group, and is disheartened that some of her peers don't do the same.

"Girls are so stupid," Mueller, 23, said. "They walk home by themselves drunk."

Critser, of Self Defense Centers, said attackers search for the easiest opportunity with the lowest risk of someone fighting back. Restaurant workers are a big target, Critser said, as they sometimes stay after closing, have a few drinks and then walk out carrying a lot of cash from tips.

"If you're more aware in your everyday life, you're less likely to be a victim," Critser said.

VICTIMS OF CRIME
GENDER
» Female 34.8%
» Male 65.2%
 
RACE
» Asian 1.8%
» Caucasian 13.5%
» Hispanic 18.6%
» African-American 65.9%

Related: A look at Chicago female homicide victims