UFC 106 Predictions for Tonight Saturday, November 21st

Tito Oritz (15-6-1) vs Forrest Griffin (16-6-0)

Ortiz and Griffin will hopefully prove to be a more decisive performance than their original meeting in April, 2006.  Ortiz won the decision in their first fight, but by most peoples standard on the whim of one successful takedown.   Ortiz ended up having back surgery after his controversial win leading to about a 2 year hiatus from the sport.  His recovery lead to other opportunities, his appearance on The Celebrity Apprentice, the birth of his twins and charity work like his most recent Ultimate Blood Drive, which brought 285 donors.

Griffin who demonstrated clear anger and disappointment with the decision on April 15, 2006, admits that "In the beginning, fighting was fun - I wasn't concerned with the outcome...At some point, I started training out of fear and anger.  I wasn't really happy.  Right now, it's about staying positive and enjoying the moment"  Griffin has approached his training for the Ortiz rematch by first enjoying the process.  His overall performance and ability to keep it together under the pressure inside the cage is contingent on his ability to enjoy his occupation.  

I think that Ortiz is a fighter who despises rest and handles it poorly. Additionally, Ortiz really only has one game plan - ground and pound.  Griffin I believe knows how to answer this situation.  Ortiz who is considered to be one of the masters of this strategy does not have great BJJ skills to enhance his signature tactic.  Don't get me wrong, the ground and pound is still a legitimate strategy for a fighter to take a win, I just can't believe he has really had enough time during his rehabilitation period to evolve his MMA skills, which in turn make his ground and pound a savvy approach against a seasoned fighter like Griffin.

Antonio Rogerlo Nogueira (17-3-0) vs Luis Cane (11-1-1)

Rogerlo Nogueira who makes his UFC debut against Cane will probably confuse the fans since his twin brother Rodrigo Nogueira was recently hyped in the MMA world for his scheduled fight against Cain Velasquez.  Unfortunately, Rodrigo Nogueira is not able to make this match because of staph infection.  However, he predicts that his brother will shock the world.  Like his brother, Rogerlo Nogueira will enter the cage against Cane with lofty boxing skills and a solid ground game and wrestling defense.  Nogueira is a medaling boxer at the South American Games and the Pan-AM Games.

Cane will show up tonight with the momentum of 3 wins on his last UFC cards. Despite only beginning his MMA fight training 4-5 years ago, he is hard hitting and certainly should not give his opponent too much of a challenge if the game become a boxing match.  However, Cane is riding high on a positive wave that should carrying him through the cage with tremendous force.  Although both fighters are experienced in MMA, Cane is not making his first debut.  I am not going to say that Cane is a better fighter overall, but I think tonight he will be.

 Josh Koscheck (13-4-0) vs Anthony Johnson (8-2-0)

Koscheck and Johnson are both coming off wins.  Koscheck before beating Frank Trigg on UFC's Belfort card, took a loss to Paulo Thiago, who also fights on tonight's line-up.  Many people feel that this loss wasn't that big of a deal since Thaigo isn't well known yet in the MMA community.  I disagree and feel that Thiago is a solid fighter and it was a revealing loss.  Regardless, tonight Koscheck has a bit more experience on his side and has had more access to top training and training partners.  Koscheck who entered on the scene from The Ultimate Fighter reality show is still an unbelievably athletic fighter despite the TKO loss against Thiago.  He is forceful is his defense and has refined his striking game.  Word is that his trainers have been schooling him on integrating his wrestling attempts and defense with combinations.  I expect to see Koscheck follow up with strikes when his takedown opportunities fail or when he answers one defensively.

Johnson's last match-up was against Yoshiyuki Yoshida  in UFC 104.  So it was only a month ago that he fought for the UFC.  Most would think he is nuts to take a fight with such little preparation, however, he won in 41 seconds of the first round, walking out barely sweating.  Johnson, like Koscheck is hoping this fight will lead to a title shot next year.  However, Johnson fights out of Cung Le's training camp and is a sanshou stylist.  So like Cung Le (who I honestly love watching), Johnson is explosive and has a lot of parlor tricks.  However, despite being a fan of Le, his style and his game, I am not sure that Johnson has really being exposed to as much true MMA training as Koscheck.  Koscheck seems to understand that relying on his wrestling will stunt his growth in the sport, has expanded his game by focusing on the weaknesses that a wrestler has inside the cage.  Johnson is very focused on the Cung Le's training regiment.  Although amazing in its entirety, the fast kicks and awesome takedowns, I am not so sure this style has evolved enough to offer a well-rounded strategy for those who train to answer it and bring a little BJJ with them.