Saturday, June 14, 2008 -- 11:07 a.m. -- on my couch
Caller Brad asked me a great question in a recent comment. He asked what happened to that extra buzz we've grown so accustomed to regarding the new iPhone. That got me thinking.
You know, the iPhone 3G is turning out to be less revolutionary despite the 3G (been around for years) and GPS (which is in all fairness is very good). The other features will operate on the first version iPhone.
I'm thinking that the iPhone 3G is an intermediate step to get the handset in the hands of millions around the world. And then, next time, look out. Then, it's a shocking amazing reinventing on the phone. Like it was the first time.
Think about this for a second ... you love the iPhone because you have an iPhone, right? You (and I) are part of the iPhone lifestyle and world. And so are about 5 million others, depending on what numbers you read and believe.
OK. Fast forward past July 11 and through the holidays of 2008. Now, there are say 15 to 20 million people in 70-or-so countries that are in the same exact boat as us. They have an iPhone (model isn't important) and they love their iPhone.
And now ... they can't imagine being without an iPhone.
That above paragraph is the key. I think Steve Jobs' ultimate goal is not to reinvent the iPhone every year. He doesn't really have to. What he has to do is get people to buy into the fact that they can't be without it. And if he does that, by getting it into as many hands as possible, then he can sell it to every single one of those people and then some every single time he upgrades it.
It's the same idea as the Mac. Get a Mac into as many hands as possible, so, when the time comes to buy a new computer, a PC makes you laugh. And, for the people who aren't buying computers at this very instant, open a retail store within 50 miles of their home and introduce them to the beauty of the Mac so they know where to go next time they need a computer.
In my mind, the iPhone sales model is built the same way. iPhone 1 was revolutionary and a game changer. iPhone 2 is just a step with some new features to keep current, a few designed to wow and iPhone 3 is a shocker. iPhone 3 is a shocker because it comes AFTER 20 million people -- perhaps more -- are holding it, using it and loving it. And look at all of the job postings we've seen/heard about from Apple for the iPhone that couldn't possibly be completed in time for this version -- camera engineers, video engineers -- the list goes on and on.
Remember ... the cell phone industry is expanding faster than ever. Part of that is because of Apple. It has to be, because if the other cell phone manufacturers don't offer anything better than what the iPhone has, they'll all crumble. They have to try to at least beat the iPhone while the iPhone is between product cycles so they can steal some limelight (Instinct, anything from HTC, Voyager and even, in some ways, Android, although that last one will eventually prove to be Apple's biggest competition).
So ... after a long post, I guess what I'm saying is that Apple is being purposely cautious here to get the iPhone out there. That's first and foremost. Market share. While it's growing for the Mac, it's obviously a thorn in Steve's side. Do it the other way with the iPhone. The features are important and ultimately a key, but for now, build the market share. Make the iPhone a household name more than it is now and then build the features.
Does that mean you shouldn't buy an iPhone 3G. No. You probably should, if you really enjoy staying current. It's a revolutionary phone in its own right, even if it's not the amazing video conferencing cut and pasting behemoth we all wished and hoped for. It is faster, if you happen to be in a 3G area, the GPS is great (really is) and there is a white version if that's a deal breaker for you.
That said, if you have a first generation iPhone in a non-3G area and you don't care about GPS, then stick with what you have. You'll get all the other great features via Exchange support and all the fun of the App Store (provided there aren't programs there that require 3G and GPS). And wait until iPhone 3.0 comes out -- or at the very least, iPhone 2.5 with 32GB. In that case, you'll be much more rewarded. I do think that by the time all the above manufacturers do what I described earlier in this post, Apple will need to add so much to the next iPhone that it will make your head spin.
That's my take. What's yours? Let me know in the comments.
Thanks for calling.
