Monday, April 28, 2008 -- 11:26 a.m. -- on my couch
You know who that is in the picture? That's the 80s band Bananarama and they sang "I Heard a Rumor." You know, "I heard a rumor. I heard a rumor, they say you got a broken heart..."
Let me tell you ... it's not easy to illustrate rumor!
Anyhow, June is looking like the target date. Today, the Chinese Commercial Times is reporting 3G iPhone information -- even numbers of how many phones Apple expects to ship. Actually, that's almost Fox News-like in terms of reporting (i.e. ridiculous and not really real reporting).
Anyhoo ... so far, at least in my mind, we're missing some things to make the 3G iPhone a reality:
FCC filing
Believe me ... there are people dedicated to watching the FCC 24 hours a day for any clues from Apple. It's not quite as simple as a company filing, waiting and getting the approval. There are exceptions, and one can only assume, not report, that there's some sort of exception going on here because no one has seen the magic filing. Of course, if the phone's outside isn't drastically different, I believe there's a different application process/wait time than if it's radically redesigned. And remember, in any scenario, June could be an announcement and a release could come later. So far, that's been Apple's way -- announce the phone in January, release it in June, announce the SDK in the fall, release it to developers in March and then to us sometime soon -- presumable this June. Maybe someone can clarify this, but can a company file with the FCC under a different name to make it almost undetectable that something's coming?
Sneaky elevator spy shots
Where are the stories and photos on all those other sites that show purported unreleased Apple merchandise sitting unattended in freight elevators on their way to WWDC? I mean, you can't have a new Apple product without a blurrry photo of something sitting around, right? I mean, someone at Apple has just waited for the day that they can leave their box of brand new 3G iPhones sitting somewhere, right?
AT&T
Steve Jobs said 2 things kept the 3G iPhone from our hands the first time around - battery life and the state of the U.S. 3G network. AT&T said on several occasions that it's working hard on making its 3G network bigger and better and there's no doubt that AT&T's work on that is a key part of any 3G announcement in the U.S.
One more thing?
Normally, Steve's "one more thing" is a good thing ... it's something we all hope and pray for ... that's surprise that just blows our minds. I am not sold yet that Steve's one more thing is going to be a good thing this time around. This is only my hunch at work here, but I don't have complete confidence that the 3G iPhone will come out in the U.S. first. I know it seems crazy backwards for a product to launch outside the U.S. and then work this way, however, with the lack of FCC filing and the way the iPhone is being received in Europe, Apple would be much, much, much better off getting a 3G iPhone into the hands of Europeans first. And in that sense, they could actually be the testers. But the point is, that could (key word is could) explain the whole FCC thing.
But like I said, that's only my hunch talking -- and I'm sure some of you will ask me what a hunch sounds like. Suprisingly, it's very much like your stomach growling. Hmmmm. It is breakfast time.
Whatever the case, as you can see, we just aren't going to know until June. If the WWDC in June comes and goes without so much as a mention of a 3G iPhone, well, that would be weird and ... well, I'm not planning for that. If the WWDC comes and we're told that the 3G iPhone will come to other countries first -- I will not be surprised in the least. And if June comes and we're told it will be available in October in time for the holiday shopping season ... I also won't be surprised in the least because that's what I was saying all along before this whole June thing started to take on a life of its own.
What would surprise me the most is a 3G iPhone announcement on June 9 and an availability that day or on June 10 -- at least in the U.S.
So that's my 3G roundup for today. What's your 3G roundup? Let me know in the comments.
Thanks for calling.
9 Comments
Peter said:
The FCC does have various ways to keep FCC filings secret. There are also other ways to do it (such as dummy companies).
The blurry elevator photo? I've only seen that for fake products.
But you're right--we just have to wait until WWDC to see what happens. Personally, I'm hoping Apple gives a previous generation iPhone to everyone in the audience... :^D
SCOTT'S REPLY: Only thing that would make that last part better, Peter, is if Steve introduced Oprah on stage to come out and provide the free iPhones to everyone in the audience.
Ben Dunton said:
From the rumors you are talking about, I read that component vendors had to have their shipments out by end of May. Look for Apple to avert the whole FCC timing issue by announcing June 9, with a shipping date mid July (same way they did the Time Capsule). And I expect US roll out at release. RIM is said to be delaying their 3G blackberry till August to avoid getting drowned out by the RDF.
SCOTT'S REPLY: Yep, yep. Heard the same thing. As far as a timeline goes, that makes a lot of sense. And you are right ... I don't expect the 3G iPhone to launch somewhere else ... I just think it's something that should never be dismissed outright.
Mike said:
Jobs will NOT release the product anywhere but in the U.S. first. He's not retarded.
SCOTT'S REPLY: That's one thing I'm sure of, Mike. But that has nothing to do with whether or not he'd release the iPhone somewhere else first.
Can you think of a reason why he wouldn't?
Ron Lemise said:
I think you hit the nail on the head in regards to announcement in June for an October US release. Apple has a history of announce, wait and release. From a marketing perspective, it's a proven strategy that gets the bloggers talking. My money is with you on the June announcement for October release.
SCOTT'S REPLY: Or, as Ben put it, a delayed release that's not so wide ... June announcement, July release. What Apple can't do is cannibalize sales of the current version with a 4-month window where no one would buy the old. That needs to be kept to a minimum.
Hassan Khan said:
Forget the 3G iPhone what if Apple came out with something that competed against the Playstation 3....?.......next step for the company?
SCOTT"S REPLY: So you mean as a gaming console? Hmmmm. What if there was a gaming console and the iPhone served as a remote controller? Like a WII with a screen???
Hmmmm?
Brad said:
June announcement for late July release does make good sense. October is just too far out and would slow sales for too long a period of time. Just hope none of this is forcing Apple to bring out the phone before all the functionality issues, especially flash, have been addressed. Mention flash because it seems to be the stickiest and trickiest of them all working it out with Adobe etc. Can't imagine they would release it without these things being resolved though; just too much impending competition out there.
SCOTT'S REPLY: Yep, it's true. But I do believe that what we get in terms of the next-gen iPhone is really going to be pretty special and all that it will come with is not currently out there. There has to be an unknown in the mix somewhere -- some big surprise thing.
Joshua said:
I'm still determined to wait for 3rd generation iPhone. Wi-fi is everywhere and 3G I don't think I'll need it, I'm not a big Internet surfer for everyday use on my phone. But I'll be jeolous if flash comes out for 2nd generation iPhone among other cool extra features.
SCOTT'S REPLY: Well, I'm not sure what would prevent Flash from coming to the first generation, so here's hoping you can have the best of both worlds.
MacSheikh said:
@ Mike
Why is releasing the 3G iPhone outside the US first "retarded"? I'd sure like to know your reasoning. I don't think it's an impossibility nor is it "retarded" - from what i read/hear, 3G in the US mostly sucks anyway, at least for now.
Personally, i couldn't care less where it's launched first, as long i get mine (officially, in Singapore) fast! :-)
*Hmmm...Bananarama eh? I'm beginning to think we're not too far apart in age! Lol!
SCOTT'S REPLY: LOL. Nice. Yeah, it's not often an iPhone blogger gets to mention Bananarama, let alone use a photo. I'm 35.
MacSheikh said:
I'm right on the money - I'm 35 too! Although with the way my "6-in-1 pack" tummy looks, my wife says i look closer to 40! :-)
SCOTT'S REPLY: HA! Very nicely written.
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