But let's pretend that somebody outside of myself and maybe 3-4 others out there actually does care and follow weekly polls.
At this time of the year it's always a struggle to come up with any sense of accuracy with the polls.
Teams lose early in the state playoffs. It happens. Good teams, and I mean really good teams lose. Some lose close games against very good competition.
Yet what/how do you handle those teams from a rankings standpoint and also how do they stack up against other teams who's seasons are still going on?
An example?
How/where do you rank a team like a Bolingbrook or a Stevenson or a Geneva? Yet do you rank say a Wheaton North above one of these teams? Or do you rank a St. Charles North as a better team in the polls over any of those teams I listed?
Look, I have a ton of respect for the Wheaton North's and the St. Charles North's and they are in the state quarterfinal round for several good reasons. Hey, go North's right?
Yet in the final say, I just don't think if you placed the North's on the same field as these teams that they would win the game.
Is that the right way to do the rankings at this time of the year? Maybe and maybe not.
From a class to class perspective, that's a totally different story to some extent and I feel that my own Class 8A thru Class 5A polls will reflect those schools better.
Yet I still take my opinion and theory for ranking into consideration in those polls as well.
In my Class 5A poll for example, I will still have Cahokia ranked higher than several others who are still alive. Why? Because I feel the Commanches head to head are better than others ranked below them in Class 5A despite a loss this Saturday to Joliet Catholic.
The same deal goes in my Week 12 Class 7A poll, where this week I still have Lincoln-Way East and Geneva ranked higher than both North's. I've seen both LWE and Geneva play in person. I've seen Wheaton North and St. Charles North already on tape.
Again, I'm not knocking the North's, yet I'm sure this will be placed at an appropriate in each school's locker room this week.
So am I right? Am I wrong?
Should a Top 25 teams ranking be truly the Top 25 teams in an area or the Still Alive 25 poll?
1 Comment
PointSpecial said:
Valid points all. I wonder, though, what the benchmark should be for teams at this point. Is it their current playoff status? Is it an amalgamation of their play throughout the year? If you look at Wheaton North, they're clicking right now. They certainly weren't 6 weeks ago vs. Wheaton South. And perhaps it's just taken this long. I'm sure that this season has not gone as planned for anybody... to have your Ohio State-bound QB go down as a Junior, then to be knocked out in the second game and then for the rest of the season in week 6... Yikes! Butler has stepped up... but there's a learning curve. He's still just a junior (yeah, there's the whole addage that, by this time of the year he's basically a senior, but it's also true, then that the seniors are in college then!) and he's stepped into his roll well. To watch how WN controlled the clock against an arguably more talented Prospect team Saturday night was masterful. WN just stayed steady and composed... led by their QB. And it isn't like they've gotten hear playing St. Mary's school for the blind. Now, granted, 9-0 Rockford Boylan with 36 playoff points isn't Glenbard West with 44... And Prospect (also with 36) may have had a high flying offense (averaging over 40 per game), but they also let up an average of 25 against lesser competition. And it allowed WN, who was averaging just over 15.5 at the end of the regular season to score 38! I think you have to look at the last 5 games, really. Going back to the Naperville Central loss in OT... this team is going to do what it needs to do to put itself in a position to win. It nearly knocked off the Redhaks. It did knock off the playoffs-in-every-year-I've-been-alive-save-one Naper North Huskies... who was in the top 20 going into week 5 and who had at one point been ranked #7. To go from #7 in week 3 (and being shut out, no less by GBN) to an early exit against an undefeated Fremd team in round 1 of the playoffs is a stark contrast... and a tough way to go out for Coach McKoen, but it would have been tougher to sit home in week 1 instead!
... But I digress...
After knocking off NN for the first time in 7 seasons, the Falcons met with another team trying to claw and scratch their way into the playoffs. The battle with Glenbard East made WN do what they had to in order to win the game.
And then there was the defensive stand at the end of the Boylan game. To battle back from being down and then to hold... you just can't script this stuff.
And the game against Prospect... they were out everythinged on the stat sheet... except for the stat that mattered... the score. The unsung story in that game was the special teams which gave WN great field position and pinned Prospect back time and time again. Having to go 19 yards to score is just a bit tougher than having to go 95! And, as I said, the clock management was masterful.
I mean, I guess it really comes down to how the champion is truly decided. Is it decided by a playoff, as is the current form, or is it a subjective straw poll based on the perceived quality of the teams? I agree it isn't perfect... but what is a poll anyway? I would say it's an approximation as to who would win in a matchup. WN was the underdog in weeks 1 and 2. They'll be the underdog throughout, that's a given. I guess I don't see what it matters if they're in the poll or not (or even, for that matter, if there IS a poll after the regular season before the season ends). The only purpose would be to project the winners of the remaining games... but in the case of WN, if you look at records or seeds, they'd likely be underdogs.
The interesting question is if they really ARE underdogs this week. They're going against a team that drilled them 35-9 in week two... but this is a drastically different team now than then. And the game is in Wheaton as opposed to LZ. Both have won two games in upset fashion... LZ has one more victory and 5 more playoff points. Chalk that up to their loss to 9-0 (after the reg season) Fremd. WN played 3-6 Addison Trail in week 1, And the difference is more than made up right there. Both have played 5 playoff teams, though WN played 4 of these in conference as opposed to 3 for LZ. WN went 1-4 against their 5, LZ went 3-2 and lost an additional game to 4-5 Libertyville. I think the nod still goes to LZ... (and their playoff wins have been more substantial too from a playoff points POV... Rolling Meados had 43 and Crystal Lake 38, while WN's opponents each had 36).
But that gets back to my original point. This is a effectively a new season. The regular season got you here... but everyone is 0-0. Well, now, everyone is 2-0.
I think there is certainly credence in setting up a top 25 for those remaining... to show who would win in head to head matchups. This may or may not be affected by the regular season poll... certainly teams that are no longer playing shouldn't be ranked in the "still remaining" poll... Perhaps they'd be slotted back in for a final poll, but that's another discussion.
Final answer... in terms of WN, they're playing better than they have been all year. In as much as there's ANY value in a poll (which is questionable) a poll is useful now for those teams that are still playing in projecting the winners. I don't know what to say in terms of where those teams would fall in a final ranking... but their end-of-the-year success will factor in to any final ranking decision, I'm sure.
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