Top 5 Cubs Second Base Prospects

This is the third part in a series of position-by-position looks at the Cubs top prospects. Previous entries can be found below:

Top 5 Catchers
Top 5 First Basemen

Listed after each player is their age for the 2010 season and the level at which they ended last season.

1. Logan Watkins, 20, A- Boise

Earlier this season I would have had LeMahieu in this spot, and the change reflects more on me losing some enthusiasm about DJ rather than gaining a great deal about Watkins. More on that in the next section.

In any case, Watkins is a fine prospect himself, packing a great deal of athleticism into a small frame. Currently listed at 5 foot 11 and 170 pounds, Watkins is just a year and a half removed from high school and it shows in his body. He should continue to add muscle as his body matures, which could take him from no power to low power.

Fortunately for Logan, he's got plenty of other abilities to make up for his longball deficiencies. His on-base skills are excellent, and his .407 OBP since turning pro is top notch. Though he's hit .325 in both pro seasons, they were on the back of .426 and .365 BABIPs.

His swing is short and punchy, resulting in a ton of contact and few strikeouts, though it's not necessarily all hard contact. 63% of his hits were groundballs, a rate not even Juan Pierre could match. More concerning was that just 9% were line-drives, and clearly he'll need to alter his swing slightly to sustain his batting averages.

Watkins also brings good speed, perhaps a 55 or 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and it gives him good range in the field that should allow him to play an MLB second base someday. There are a few issues with Logan that keep him from being a top prospect, but infielders who get on base frequently and run well will always have a place in the big leagues.

2. DJ LeMahieu, 21, A Peoria

It's hard not to be impressed by DJ LeMahieu. Tall, lanky, and projectable, with above-average speed, a quick bat and soft hands in the field, DJ looks like a stud. The main problem is that to date, his production hasn't matched what it should be.

His .323/.376/.384 line from last season was decent, but that it was achieved by a high major college player in the low minors makes it less impressive. LeMahieu was able to scrounge up just 7 extra base hits in 182 plate appearances, instead living almost exclusively on singles.

The explanation for that is similar to Watkins; he just gets on top of the ball too much. But with DJ, it's even worse, to the tune of a 72% ground ball rate. Hopefully his coaches are aware of this and can make some kind of adjustments to his swing, because if that doesn't come down significantly, it will likely derail his career.

I include LeMahieu on this second basemen list because it is my belief that it is his best shot at making the majors. He was drafted as a shortstop, and can handle it adequately, but if he loses any speed, he probably becomes below average. He was moved to 2B at LSU during their World Series run, and he definitely profiles better there down the road.

LeMahieu has a lot of talent, and consequently significant potential, but there are a number of issues he needs to work out in the next year or two before he will be a highly ranked prospect. First on his to-do list should be to work out his swing and hit the ball with more authority, and if he does that everything will figure itself out.

3. Tony Thomas, 23, AA Tennessee

The further we get from it, the more Tony Thomas' 2007 season is looking like a blip on the radar. After posting 807 and 818 OPS's his freshmen and sophomore seasons at Florida State, Thomas busted out with a staggering .430/.522/.733 line in '07, having one of the top offensive lines in the country. After being drafted 97th overall by the Cubs, Thomas signed quickly and continued his roll by hitting .308/.404/.544 for Boise in his debut.

In the two seasons since his dominating run, Thomas has underwhelmed at both Hi-A Daytona and AA Tennessee, posting OPS's of 720 and 730 in 2008 and 2009 respectively.

At the plate he's made strides with his plate discipline this season and still has above average pop for an infielder, but struggled on the basepaths and will probably never hit for much average. His fielding is average as well, and if somehow his bat comes around he would certainly be able to hold down second base at the major league level.

Thomas does still have some promise, but another year of underperforming will seal his fate as a career minor leaguer. This season is his time to put up or shut up. He'll begin back at Tennessee and attempt to turn things around.

4. Jake Opitz, 23, Hi-A Daytona

I was really tempted to list Opitz ahead of Thomas, but his lower spot on the totem pole and not-as-impressive tools held him back in the end. A 4-year player at Nebraska, Opitz's calling card was his glove for his first 3 years of work. He finally broke out at the plate during his senior year, but it was too little to late, and he slipped to the 12th round of the 2008 draft.

2009 was his first full season, and he successfully transitioned to second base while holding his own at the plate in the tough Florida State League. He finished at .273/.347/.376, displaying very good plate discipline and getting on base at a clip much higher than league average. His offense will need to take a step forward in 2010 as leaves Daytona's unfriendly hitting environment and tries to pass Tony Thomas on the organizational depth chart. His defense is generally considered very good at the keystone, and he has the potential to be an intriguing utility infielder with solid defense and on-base skills.

5. Nate Samson, 22, Hi-A Daytona

A shortstop in Peoria before spending most of his time at second for Daytona, Samson has the ability to move all over the infield on defense and has posted good stats at each position. That's his main boast right now, as his bat lags behind (632 OPS in 2009). He doesn't make consistent hard contact and has a small stature that probably won't allow much power production. Samson's plate discipline is his lone offensive skill, and like Opitz, there's always the possibility that it will be enough when combined with his versatility. Samson may be the victim of organizational depth to a degree, as he could get squeezed out of regular playing time behind guys like Opitz and Thomas.

3 Comments

tim815 said:

Nice overview. I'm guessing Watkins @ Peoria. DJL @ Daytona with Samson as a backup. Opitz @ Thomas in Tennessee to see which one gets dealt. Fitzgerald (?) in Boise.

Seriously, I hope we get talent for what we have to trade.

Posted on February 5, 2010 12:37 AM