With prospect list season in full swing at most baseball publications, another of the major prospect experts, Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein, released his Cubs top 10 list today (plus a few extras).
Goldstein's list can
be found here with scouting reports on each one for subscribers. For those of you without subscriptions, the list is below:
1. Josh Vitters (5*)
2. Starlin Castro (5*)
3. Hak-Ju Lee (4*)
4. Brett Jackson (4*)
5. Andrew Cashner (3*)
6. Jay Jackson (3*)
7. Chris Carpenter (3*)
8. Chris Archer (3*)
9. Kyler Burke (3*)
10. Ryan Flaherty (3*)
11. John Gaub (3*)
12. Chris Huseby
13. Logan Watkins
14. Dae-Eun Rhee
15. Darwin Barney
I'm not at all surprised Goldstein gave Vitters the nod for the top spot, as he's always been a huge proponent and a believer in his bat. Couple that with the show he put on in the Midwest League (KG's home turf) and I would have been surprised to see anyone else above him. Goldstein also has better reports on his defense than we've heard in a while, which I suppose is encouraging. It's a good bet Vitters will show better on the BP top 100 prospect list than on most other lists.
Goldstein is pretty low on Castro compared to many others, but that isn't exactly news. The main issue is that he doesn't see the young shortstop developing any secondary skills. I think he will, but I could be wrong. I was disappointed by his plate discipline in the AFL, and he'd have to put on some serious weight to add much power to his game. Still, I see his floor as a league average offensive shortstop, and that's enough to make him a great prospect, even if he had no upside.
Overall I agree with the majority of the list, and it syncs up pretty well with mine and many others. It's interesting that the top 4 were all position prospects, and he seemed lower on the top two SPs, Jackson and Cashner.
I think Huseby is too high, and I'm actually pretty surprised that he got the 12th spot given Goldstein's predisposition towards velocity in pitchers (especially righthanders). At 6 foot 7, he tops out at about 89-91, which likely won't cut it out of the bullpen at higher levels. Stranger things have happened of course, but Huseby would have to be the exception to the rule.
In the blurb on Chris Carpenter, KG brings up his "long track record of arm problems", citing a Tommy John surgery from 2005. I don't know when an arm surgery 5 years ago became a long track record, but Carpenter hasn't had any trouble since going pro, and the whole arm problems thing seems overstated to me.
Goldstein also threw out Rusty Greer as a perfect world comparison for Kyler Burke, bringing back memories of one of my favorite baseball names. Thurman Clyde "Rusty" Greer III. Awesome.
You may notice that there seems to be a low emphasis on walks in comparison to more statistically based lists. John Gaub, Chris Archer, and Josh Vitters all have major walk problems, but are ranked well compared to most others. That's probably attributable to Goldstein leaning on scouting reports from first-hand sources and devaluing the numbers somewhat. As a result, he offers some incredibly valuable insights and is often the first person to discover young guys, but he can overlook some statistical red flags like the ones you see in the aforementioned players.
Finally, I was happy to see Goldstein's admission that the system took a big upturn this season, since as recently as about September he disputed my claim that we had improved. There remains a lack of depth in the lower levels, but with at least 11 guys that are 3 stars or higher on Goldstein's scale, there's a lot to look forward to.
3 Comments
tim815 said:
It's nice to have a 'numbers problem' like Logan Watkins. Thirteen on the list. Up and coming, but he's really quality trade bait. Not only will he have to sneak by LeMahieu, but also Lee or Castro to be considered a threat to play in Wrigley. Oh, and Flaherty. IIRC, there would be years he would be a fringe top 7 candidate with his current numbers. Nice to have competition.
tim815 said:
BA pegged Vincent Logan Watkins at #7 in the system. Over Carpenter. We may have a serious middle infield logjam in about 18 months. Tony Thomas, you're on notice.
Matt Swain said:
Tony Thomas is definitely in trouble after his 2nd consecutive disappointing season. His college bat just never made the necessary adjustments, I guess. Doesn't figure to ever be an MLB contributor at this point. More on that to come in my upcoming 2B rankings.
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