I've received a few requests to address the upcoming Rule 5 draft and it's implications for the Cubs. The draft will take place during the Winter Meetings on December 10th, at which point MLB general managers will take turns selecting eligible minor league players from other teams.
Players are eligible for the Rule 5 draft if they are not on the 40 man roster and have been in the organization for 3 or more years if signed at 19 or later or 4 or more years if signed at 18 or younger. The team that chooses the player must keep them on the major league roster for the entire season, so typically players are coming from high levels of the minors.
Typically the draft passes without too much notice by casual baseball fans, but it never fails to move talented players into better situations. Notable draftees include HOFer Roberto Clemente, Cy Young winner Johan Santana, Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla, and Shane Victorino, who was picked on two separate occasions.
Teams have only until November 20th to make additions to the 40 man roster, so teams are in the process of deciding who they feel needs to be protected. The spots are limited and therefore valuable, so they won't just give them away.
With that background in mind, let's look into which Cubs players could get picked.
Preparing for the Rule 5 Draft
The following list shows all the Cubs who fit the requirements I laid out earlier in this post, and therefore are in danger of being taken by other organizations.
Eligible for the 2009 Rule 5 Draft
Francisco Acosta, RHP
James Adduci, OF
Austin Bibens-Dirkx, RHP (if he's resigned)
Todd Blackford, RHP
Alberto Cabrera, RHP
Matt Camp, IF-OF
Russ Canzler, 1B
Marco Carrillo, RHP
Julio Castillo, RHP
Welington Castillo, C
Steve Clevenger, C-1B
Thomas Diamond, RHP
Rafael Dolis, RHP
Arturo Florentino, RHP
John Gaub, LHP
Robert Hernandez, RHP
Dylan Johnston, OF
Blake Lalli, C-1B
Josh Lansford, RHP
Alessandro Maestri, RHP
J. R. Mathes, LHP
Matt Matulia, INF
Mario Mercedes, C
Jonathan Mota, INF
Billy Muldowney, RHP
Jake Muyco, RHP
Dionis Nunez, RHP
Jeremy Papelbon, LHP
Blake Parker, RHP
Andres Quezada, RHP
Mark Reed, C
Gregory Reinhard, RHP
Chris Robinson, C
Jayson Ruhlman, LHP
Tomas Sanchez, RHP
Miguel Sierra, RHP
Alvaro Sosa, C
The players I bolded were the ones who made my most recent top 30 prospect list, and therefore the ones I feel are in most danger of being selected. There are a couple others who have a chance at being selected (Chris Robinson, Matt Camp, and Rafael Dolis, to name a few) but the Cubs likely would not miss any of those guys and I have doubts that they'd be able to contribute to an MLB team.
The Cubs 40 man roster sits at 37 now that Kevin Gregg has filed for free agency, but it's likely that the remaining Cubs free agents (Rich Harden, John Grabow, Chad Fox, Reed Johnson) will follow suit and bring the number down to 33 in the next couple weeks.
The club won't fill all 7 spots, but could add as many as 4-5. There are three really obvious additions, in Welington Castillo, Blake Parker, and John Gaub. Parker and Gaub are both good relief pitching prospects who should make their Cubs debuts in 2010, and Castillo is a well thought of catching prospect currently playing in the AFL. Those guys will almost certainly merit addition to the roster, and if they don't would almost certainly get selected in the draft.
After that, I'd be slightly worried about Clevenger, who split time with Robinson as the Iowa catcher this past season. Clevenger struggled to adjust to AAA ball, and is mostly a singles hitter, but he's a young guy with some upside who could spend a season as a backup catcher and be a moderately valuable asset moving forward for a lower division club who doesn't want to spend for a veteran.
I think more highly about James Adduci than most, but he seems like exactly the kind of player I might target if I was a GM. Adduci is still fairly new to the outfield but has altered his approach to be a leadoff type hitter in centerfield with a high average, on base skills and speed. He'll be 25 next season and ticketed for AAA, so it wouldn't be too much of a reach at all to keep him as a 4th or 5th outfielder for a lot of clubs. I'm probably overstating his chances of being chosen, but to me he seems like a guy who should be protected.
Chris Robinson spent his year in Iowa, where he hit .326/.346/.436. His bat is pretty questionable though with his career OPS sitting at 691, so he would be a reach to be selected.
Matt Camp is a versatile fielder who manned 2B, SS, 3B, and all three OF spots for Iowa this year, but is a light hitter who will never be an MLB starter. Still could be of some value as a bench player, but I doubt the Cubs would miss him if he was chosen.
Eligible for the 2009 Rule 5 Draft
Francisco Acosta, RHP
James Adduci, OF
Austin Bibens-Dirkx, RHP (if he's resigned)
Todd Blackford, RHP
Alberto Cabrera, RHP
Matt Camp, IF-OF
Russ Canzler, 1B
Marco Carrillo, RHP
Julio Castillo, RHP
Welington Castillo, C
Steve Clevenger, C-1B
Thomas Diamond, RHP
Rafael Dolis, RHP
Arturo Florentino, RHP
John Gaub, LHP
Robert Hernandez, RHP
Dylan Johnston, OF
Blake Lalli, C-1B
Josh Lansford, RHP
Alessandro Maestri, RHP
J. R. Mathes, LHP
Matt Matulia, INF
Mario Mercedes, C
Jonathan Mota, INF
Billy Muldowney, RHP
Jake Muyco, RHP
Dionis Nunez, RHP
Jeremy Papelbon, LHP
Blake Parker, RHP
Andres Quezada, RHP
Mark Reed, C
Gregory Reinhard, RHP
Chris Robinson, C
Jayson Ruhlman, LHP
Tomas Sanchez, RHP
Miguel Sierra, RHP
Alvaro Sosa, C
The players I bolded were the ones who made my most recent top 30 prospect list, and therefore the ones I feel are in most danger of being selected. There are a couple others who have a chance at being selected (Chris Robinson, Matt Camp, and Rafael Dolis, to name a few) but the Cubs likely would not miss any of those guys and I have doubts that they'd be able to contribute to an MLB team.
The Cubs 40 man roster sits at 37 now that Kevin Gregg has filed for free agency, but it's likely that the remaining Cubs free agents (Rich Harden, John Grabow, Chad Fox, Reed Johnson) will follow suit and bring the number down to 33 in the next couple weeks.
The club won't fill all 7 spots, but could add as many as 4-5. There are three really obvious additions, in Welington Castillo, Blake Parker, and John Gaub. Parker and Gaub are both good relief pitching prospects who should make their Cubs debuts in 2010, and Castillo is a well thought of catching prospect currently playing in the AFL. Those guys will almost certainly merit addition to the roster, and if they don't would almost certainly get selected in the draft.
After that, I'd be slightly worried about Clevenger, who split time with Robinson as the Iowa catcher this past season. Clevenger struggled to adjust to AAA ball, and is mostly a singles hitter, but he's a young guy with some upside who could spend a season as a backup catcher and be a moderately valuable asset moving forward for a lower division club who doesn't want to spend for a veteran.
I think more highly about James Adduci than most, but he seems like exactly the kind of player I might target if I was a GM. Adduci is still fairly new to the outfield but has altered his approach to be a leadoff type hitter in centerfield with a high average, on base skills and speed. He'll be 25 next season and ticketed for AAA, so it wouldn't be too much of a reach at all to keep him as a 4th or 5th outfielder for a lot of clubs. I'm probably overstating his chances of being chosen, but to me he seems like a guy who should be protected.
Chris Robinson spent his year in Iowa, where he hit .326/.346/.436. His bat is pretty questionable though with his career OPS sitting at 691, so he would be a reach to be selected.
Matt Camp is a versatile fielder who manned 2B, SS, 3B, and all three OF spots for Iowa this year, but is a light hitter who will never be an MLB starter. Still could be of some value as a bench player, but I doubt the Cubs would miss him if he was chosen.
2 Comments
toonsterwu said:
You really ought to give TCR and AzPhil credit for putting together that list.
As a side note, James Adduci played outfield in the GCL for the Marlins ages ago.
Matt Swain said:
Thanks for the comment toonsterwu. Your absolutely right, I should have cited my source for the list as being Arizona Phil from The Cub Reporter. As I've said many times before, Phil is a terrific source for everything Cubs minor leagues and does really wonderful work. Apologies to Phil and the guys at TCR.
As for Adduci, the Marlins worked him mostly at first base in the 2005 and 2006 seasons before the Cubs moved him to outfield full time. He did play quite a bit of OF in the 2003 season though.
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