Mailbag: Top Prospect Arrival Times
Thanks to commenter VerizonWireless, we have our first mailbag since moving over to ChicagoNow. If you have a question about Cubs prospects or anything baseball related for us, you are encouraged to shoot it over to us here at mailbag@wrigleybound.com, and we'll answer every good question we get. Now onto our question.
Is there anyway you could preview some of the top prospects ETA's?- VerizonWireless
Absolutely. I posted my top 30 prospect list last week, so let's look at those guys and make predictions on their arrivals. I'll assume that every player avoids injuries and progresses well, obviously ridiculous assumptions as many of these guys will struggle somewhere along the way and won't ever get a shot in the majors.
Some of these times might be a little later than you were imagining, and that's because I'm trying to project when they'll be ready more so than when they'll be called up. I think Castro could hit the scene this year, but I think he needs another year of seasoning before he's starting for the Cubs. So with that in mind, here's when I believe the top 30 Cubs prospects can establish themselves as MLB players:
|
Player |
Position |
Estimated Arrival Time |
| 1 |
Starlin Castro |
SS |
2011 |
| 2 |
Josh Vitters |
3B/1B |
mid-2011 |
| 3 |
Andrew Cashner |
SP/RP |
2011 (or mid-2010 as a reliever) |
| 4 |
Jay Jackson |
SP |
2011 |
| 5 |
Brett Jackson |
CF |
2012 |
| 6 |
Hak-Ju Lee |
SS |
2013 |
| 7 |
Chris Carpenter |
SP |
mid-2011 |
| 8 |
Kyler Burke |
RF |
mid-2012 |
| 9 |
Ryan Flaherty |
IF |
mid-2011 |
| 10 |
Jeffry Antigua |
SP |
2013 |
|
Player |
Position |
Estimated Arrival Time |
| 11 |
DJ LeMahieu |
IF |
mid-2012 |
| 12 |
Tyler Colvin |
RF |
mid-2010 |
| 13 |
Chris Archer |
SP |
2012 |
| 14 |
John Gaub |
RP |
2010 |
| 15 |
Darwin Barney |
SS |
mid-2010 |
| 16 |
Dae-Eun Rhee |
SP |
2013 |
| 17 |
Chris Rusin |
SP |
2012 |
| 18 |
Brooks Raley |
SP |
2012 |
| 19 |
Logan Watkins |
2B |
2013 |
| 20 |
Blake Parker |
RP |
mid-2010 |
| 21 |
Jeff Stevens |
RP |
mid-2010 |
| 22 |
Austin Kirk |
SP |
2013 |
| 23 |
Chris Huseby |
RP |
mid-2012 |
| 24 |
Marquez Smith |
3B |
2011 |
| 25 |
James Adduci |
CF |
2011 |
| 26 |
Welington Castillo |
C |
2011 |
| 27 |
Junior Lake |
SS |
2013 |
| 28 |
Brandon Guyer |
RF |
mid-2011 |
| 29 |
Steve Clevenger |
C |
mid-2011 |
| 30 |
Tony Thomas |
2B |
mid-2011 |
As you can see, most of the more immediate help should come from the pitching side. The only position players I think who will be fully ready for the show as soon as this upcoming season are Darwin Barney and Tyler Colvin, but neither project to be above average hitters at their position. Colvin's got some power, but with his penchant for strikeouts I would be shocked if he was able to quickly adjust to MLB pitching, especially after several subpar years in the minors.
I do think that Andrew Cashner is ready to make an impact fairly soon if the Cubs decide to use him in the bullpen. With a couple other top SP prospects not far behind him in Chris Carpenter and Jay Jackson, I think they could afford to make the move for at least 2010, and I think he could be a long term solution as a back-end reliever with shutdown stuff.
Glancing down the list even further, in 2011 we could see a large number of position players ready to contribute, the problem will be how much they will be able to produce. Guys like Clevenger, Thomas, and Guyer have had struggles in the upper levels of the minors, and probably are just bench pieces, as are guys like Castillo and Adduci. They all still have chances to establish themselves as future starters, with Castillo having the best opportunity, but all of their clocks are ticking.
One final note, a case I think will be interesting will be Hak-Ju Lee. I can see him finding success at every level with his skillset, which includes blazing speed, great range in the field, and a line drive bat that will let him hit for average. Could the Cubs push him like they did with Starlin Castro? Or do they take it easy on the teenaged Korean who doesn't speak much English and has only been in America a short time? I would bet on the latter, but I would have made the same bet on Starlin Castro and lost.
1 Comment
VerizonWireless said:
Good Work. Where do you think Lee ends up next year? I think he should probably start at Peoria since there is a ridiculous amount of middle infield depth that should be at HiA next year.
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