SS prospect Starlin Castro moves into the #1 spot on the newest list
1. Starlin Castro, SS, 19- Castro takes over the top spot
on this list after getting terrific reports from all observers in Mesa. He has been pushed
hard by the Cubs, and is a very good pure hitter whose patience is developing.
He also has power on the way as his big frame fills out and runs very well,
stealing 28 bases in 2009. Might be a future second baseman, but will be a good
MLB fielder, and will at least start at shortstop. It's still hard to tell how
high his ultimate ceiling is, but he could be an established MLB player by the
time most kids are graduating college, and coaches give terrific reports on his
makeup and leadership.
Likely destination: AA Tennessee
2. Josh Vitters, 3B, 19- I finally dropped Vitters from the
top spot, but it's more based on Castro winning it than anything, as the '07
first rounder has hit well in the AFL. He had a terrific showing in Peoria in the early part
of the year, but struggled a lot upon being promoted to Daytona as he dealt
with a wrist injury. At the end of the day, he has the most potential of
anybody on this list, and his bat is best described as special. He makes great
contact, and the Cubs are crossing their fingers his power and plate discipline
come along. He needs to work on his fielding, and as of right now he doesn't
project as anything but a 1B at the MLB level. I wouldn't be shocked if he
moved to Tennessee
to begin next year.
Likely destination: Hi-A Daytona
3. Andrew Cashner, SP, 22- A tall pitcher with good K
rates, good GB rates, and very good stuff. The '08 first rounder could also
help out in the bullpen if needed, where his fastball could run as high as 98
and his plus slider would be an out pitch. Got tired near the end of the year,
but that wasn't totally unexpected considering his new role. Ultimate question
with him will be can he stay in the rotation? He could be a dominant reliever,
but Cubs brass wants to make it work as a starter, and for good reason, as he
would be more valuable there.
Likely destination: AAA Iowa
4. Jay Jackson, SP, 21- Jackson was demoted mid-season for disciplinary
reasons, which hurt him a little bit in my eyes, but he dominated in the
Florida State League before earning a late season promotion to Iowa,
and still has a bright future. Throws a 92-94 fastball with a slider, changeup,
and curveball. A huge sleeper from the 2008 draft, Jackson
is a superb athlete who also played outfield in college and can swing the bat a
little bit.
Likely destination: AAA Iowa
5. Brett Jackson, OF, 21- Impressive debut for the first
round pick, who hit .316/.418/.488 between three levels with 8 HRs and 13 SBs.
A power/speed combo who showed decent plate discipline but will rack up his
fair share of strikeouts. Very good defensively in centerfield. I've compared
him in the past to Grady Sizemore Lite, and I'll stick with that. Potentially a
20-20 man at the MLB level.
Likely destination- Hi A Daytona
6. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, 18- Lee could be argued up this list
more on potential, but I have him a bit lower since he's still just at Boise.
He has electric speed, great range at shortstop, and a nice line-drive bat.
Projects as a top of the order hitter with a high average and a lot of stolen
bases, but still is several years away from making an MLB impact. Had error
problems early in the year, but improved in his consistency as the year wore
on. Definitely the gem of the Cubs Korean imports so far.
Likely destination- Lo A Peoria
7. Chris Carpenter, SP, 23- A breakout season for the 2008 3rd
rounder shot him up this list. The only reason he fell so far in the draft was
due to concerns about a Tommy John surgery he had as a sophomore, but he's
fully recovered and hasn't reported any further arm troubles. He's got very
good stuff, getting his fastball up to 96 to go with a slider and a changeup.
It translated to results this year, and he put up a 2.82 ERA between Peoria, Daytona, and Tennessee.
Probably behind Jackson and Cashner on the pecking order for a call-up, but
should be knocking on the Cubs' door by spring 2011.
Likely destination- AA Tennessee
8. Kyler Burke, RF, 21- After several disappointing
seasons, Burke translated his athleticism to production this year for Peoria, having a
tremendous season with a line of .303/.405/.505, 15 HRs, and 14 SBs. He also
had a whopping 43 doubles that will hopefully turn into home runs later. His
plate discipline made a huge leap and he continued to play a good right field,
where he boasts a terrific throwing arm, perhaps the best in the Cubs system.
There's a ton to like here, if he hits again next season and proves it wasn't a
fluke he will put himself firmly on the national prospect map.
Likely destination- Hi A Daytona
9. Ryan Flaherty, IF, 23- After I wrote about Flaherty as a
sleeper following a poor first half, he came up huge after the All-Star Break,
going .309/.372/.498 to finish the year. He's got plus power now despite a
skinny frame that could grow in the next few years. He was a bit old for the
level, which is a concern, but his bat is very promising. Likely will be able
to hold down 2B and 3B at the major league level, and the lefty will definitely
hit RHP. I'm going to use Mark DeRosa as a comp based on offensive production
and versatility. I think the Cubs might surprise some people and push him a bit
by skipping Daytona.
Likely destination- AA Tennessee
10. Jeffry Antigua, SP, 19- Antigua
is a young lefty pitcher with low 90's fastball and improving breaking ball who
had some excellent stats this year, including 68 Ks and just 19 BBs in 68.2 IP.
Not overpowering, but as a teenager is already looking good against older
competition, and had a combined ERA of 3.01 this season between Boise
and Peoria.
I'm afraid I don't have a ton of information on Antigua
and I didn't get to see him pitch this year, but the numbers leap off the page.
Likely destination- A Peoria
SS DJ LeMahieu was the Cubs 2nd round pick in June
11. DJ LeMahieu, IF, 21- This year's 2nd round pick,
LeMahieu swung the bat well with a line of .316/.371/.368. I've lost some
enthusiasm about him and moved him down from his previous ranking, as his swing
is shorter and punchier than I thought, and you have to question his overall
power ceiling. He has the frame for it at 6 foot 4, and if he puts on some
weight he still has the potential for 15+ HRs, but right now you really have to
dream on him to see that ever happening. Regardless, he should be an average
fielder at shortstop who gets on base, and he's pretty raw for a college
product.
Likely destination- Hi A Daytona
12. Tyler Colvin, OF, 23- There was a point this season when
I wrote Colvin off as a prospect, saying he was just too inconsistent and
didn't make enough contact to be an MLB player. Those concerns remain, but you
have to acknowledge he still has MLB potential after a ridiculous August
(.379/.425/.689) boosted his season OPS to 859. After a season lost to injury
and failed attempts to alter his approach, he went back to what works best for
him and had some results. Still don't know what to expect from him, but he'll
get a look next year for big league time. In a nutshell, he'll strike out a
ton, walk very little, hit some homers, and play an average outfield. Probably
no more than a bench player in the long run.
Likely destination- AAA Iowa
13. Chris Archer, SP, 21- An arm from the DeRosa trade,
Archer is far from MLB ready, but has put up really intriguing numbers so far.
In Peoria
this season, he compiled a 2.81 ERA with 119 Ks in 109 IP, despite struggling
with his command to the tune of 66 BBs. He's got good stuff, and I think his
best future is in the bullpen, but wherever he pitches he needs to shore up
those walks. He's smallish, but athletic and gets into the low to mid 90's with
his fastball.
Likely destination- Hi A Daytona
14. John Gaub, RP, 24- The lefty who was also obtained in
the Mark DeRosa deal dominated the minor leagues this season, putting up a 2.25
ERA with 80 Ks in 60 IP. He's here on the list because he's an absolute lock to
contribute at the MLB level, but it may only be as a setup man or LOOGY. Not
overwhelming stuff, but he sits low 90's with a slider and a deceptive delivery
that helps him. He'll battle for a job in the pen in spring training next year,
and stands a good chance of making the squad.
Likely destination- MLB Chicago
15. Darwin Barney, SS, 23- Barney gets terrific scouting
reports at shortstop, with Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein calling him
perhaps the best fielding shortstop in the minor leaguers. Defensive metrics
aren't so kind, but the reliability of those are still up in the air. At the
plate, he's a light hitter who is reliant on a lot of singles, and will
probably never be more than a 7 or 8 hitter who I would guess will adjust
slowly to MLB pitching. He struggled upon moving to Iowa
after excelling in Tennessee,
but a hot start will give him a chance to contribute to the Cubs as soon as
next season.
Likely destination- AAA Iowa
16. Dae-Eun Rhee, SP, 20
17. Chris Rusin, SP, 23
Logan Watkins checks in at #19 on the list
18. Brooks Raley, SP, 21
19. Logan
Watkins, 2B, 19
20. Blake Parker, RP, 25
21. Jeff Stevens, RP, 25
22. Austin Kirk, SP, 19
23. Chris Huseby, RP, 21
24. Marquez Smith, 3B, 24
25. James Adduci, CF, 24
26. Welington Castillo, C, 22
27. Junior
Lake, SS, 20
28. Brandon Guyer, RF, 23
29. Steve Clevenger, C, 23
30. Tony Thomas, 2B, 23
Honorable Mention: James Russell, Sergio Burruel, Rebel
Ridling, Casey Coleman, Jose Valdez, Ryan Searle, Marcos Mateo, Robinson
Chirinos, Justin Bour, Dong-Yub Kim
5 Comments
tim815 said:
Castillo at 26 sounds low, but otherwise okay. Anything coming up on the 40 man Roster. I think that's due in two weeks, in regards to the Rule 5 Draft.
Matt Swain said:
I thought some people might not like that ranking, and I'll give an explanation of why I'm down on him sometime in the near future.
I'll also revisit the 40 man roster issue soon, along with a list of Rule 5 eligible Cubs.
VerizonWireless said:
Matt, I love your blog and I've been checking religiously trying to get any scoop at all on Minor League stuff. When can we be looking for new posts on the Rule 5 and such. I've heard quite a few names being pushed around so I was just wondering when you would be sharing. Also, is there anyway you could preview some of the top prospects ETA's? I feel like there is a ton of depth at the lower levels but they need to start developing the top level position players. Comments?
Matt Swain said:
Thanks for the kind words. Apparently there's a lot of interest in this rule 5 stuff, so I'll definitely have something on that in the next couple days.
As far as ETA's, I suppose I could do a post with the ETAs for the top 30 prospects. That would actually make a good mailbag question, so I might use it for that purpose.
The lower levels are definitely looking good right now, which is a good thing, since the Cubs are trying to refuel the system with talent and the best way to do that is from the ground up. The reason it's hard to "develop top level position players" like you suggest is that those guys just don't have the ability that some of these younger kids have. It's more a matter of a lack of talent than it is a lack of development for most of the AA and AAA players in the Cubs system. The top levels will fill out as the guys from this year's loaded Peoria team make their way up, as well as this year's draft picks and even younger players like Hak-Ju Lee and Logan Watkins. Then you just replace those guys with more talented younger players and voila, you've got a top level farm system. Obviously it's not that easy, but that's certainly the plan right now.
VerizonWireless said:
Any such time to start looking for these reports?
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