Alex Eisenberg on Cubs Prospects, Part 2
Alex Eisenberg of Baseball-Intellect rejoins us for more Cubs prospect talk, including his thoughts on '07 first rounder Josh Vitters, '08 first rounder Andrew Cashner, and some sleepers in the system. For Part 1 of the interview, click
here.
WB: Andrew Cashner's velocity was down this year to 90-92 after he sat high
90's while closing in college. Is that a pretty typical drop for
someone moving from the rotation to the pen? Have you seen anything in
his mechanics at all that could be sapping velocity? What's your
overall impression of him?I'm not sure what's going on with Cashner's velocity. I haven't
tracked down any video of him this year, so I can't explain what might
be causing it. I'll say this though...I do wonder how often Cashner
actually sat between 96 - 98. His draft video, which was shot
in-season, had him between 91 - 94, sitting at 91 and 92. It was only
one game, but then he showed diminished velocity in Boise and he's
showed diminished velocity this year as well, so I do wonder if the
scouting reports overstated the consistency of his velocity. Also, a
normal velocity loss from moving out of the bullpen and into a starting
role is typically between 2 - 4 mph.
I'm definitely down on him compared to what I felt
when he was drafted. Not to say he's not a good prospect. He is...but
I think his future is in the bullpen as a potential set-up guy.
WB: Do you have any sleepers in the Cubs system you feel are underhyped?
AE: Sleepers...I've looked through the Cubs system and there aren't a
ton of sleeper prospects, but there are a few that stand out:
-
Chris Huseby - he's been around for a while, but he's still pretty
young. He's battled injuries and command, but a move to the bullpen
seems to have been the cure.
- Kyler Burke - another guy that's been around for
a while, but he broke out last year. Cut down on the strikeouts
dramatically, and increased what was already a solid BB%. Power is
solid as well and I like that he gets lift on the ball.
- Jeffry Antigua - I haven't watched him yet and
I'll do so in the near future, but he's worth mentioning because his
peripherals look good, he's young for his level, and he's left handed.
- Jeff Beliveau - a lefty that has a fastball with good life, solid breaking ball, misses bats, but only so-so command.
WB: I'd be remiss if I didn't get your opinion on Josh Vitters. His
stock has fallen considerably in the few months since the all-star break, as he's
dealt with a huge slump in Daytona, a wrist injury, and some major
questions about his defense. Do you still think he's a top 50 prospect
in baseball?
AE: He's one of the toughest guys to evaluate this year. He's
genuinely got a pretty swing, which isn't something you hear much about
right handed hitters. He's got those quick-twitch muscle fibers in his
wrists and forearms that allow him to generate plus bat speed without
much of a loading process, which enables him to keep his swing short
and make consistent contact. His power has come along nicely and he's
definitely showed an ability to rake by making consistent hard contact.
He's a potentially high average hitter.
The problem with Vitters as most know is his
tendency to swing at everything. Good pitches, bad pitches,
whatever...he'll swing at it. And the FSL really exposed that
weakness. So the question is: can he develop his plate discipline to
an acceptable level? You rarely see huge jumps in patience/plate
discipline, but rather you see incremental improvements over time.
I don't have the data in front of me that can give
us an indication of the success rate of players with his skill set, but
overall, his plate discipline will almost certainly limit his true
upside. He's going to have hit for a high average to maintain an
acceptable OBP.
There are also concerns about his position. His
value as a third baseman is much greater than his value as a first
baseman, so that's another question mark to consider.
Is
he top-50? Too soon to say. We'll find out later in the offseason
once I've had more time to evaluate other prospects around the league.
WB: Quick hit: who's the top Cub prospect, Starlin Castro or Josh Vitters?
AE: Difficult to say...probably Castro right now...he's younger, he
performed better at a higher level, and the biggest reason of all: he
plays a premium defensive position and he plays it well.
However, if you ask me tomorrow, I might tell you Vitters. It's that close.
Thanks a lot to Alex for his time and his insights. Remember to check out his work at
Baseball-Intellect, including the recently launched Premium Intellect.
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