Why They Are Here: As bad a year as the Cubs had at the big-league level, that's how good a year they had down on the farm, as 2008 draftees stepped forward, international signees shined, and plenty of others stepped forward. Throw in a first-round draft steal in Brett Jackson, and things are looking very, very up.With few (if any) top prospects likely to graduate this year (looks like Castro and Cashner have outside chances), the Cubs could be even higher next year, which is an exciting thing if you're a member of what the Cardinal fanbase likes to call the Hyperventilating Prospect Geek Fraternity (HPGF for short).
Where They Will Be Next Year: Chances are good that all of these players should still be eligible next year, and while I don't see the true star potential in Starlin Castro that others do, it's reasonable to expect good performances from Josh Vitters and Hak-Ju Lee. The aging big-league team needs help now, but this might take awhile.
BP's Organizational Rankings and Links
Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein, one of the the top prospect writers out there, ranked the Cubs farm system 8th on his organizational rankings today (subscription required), up from 26th last season.
Starlin Castro's 2010
From Paul Sullivan in the Tribune:
"No, no," [Piniella] said. "Starlin is going to start the season in Triple-A (Iowa) and play. The only way Starlin would come into this equation, and I've said this before, is if he shows he's ready to play here and there's a problem physically with Theriot.
I would suggest that he should even start back at AA Tennessee, where he finished last year and only recorded 122 plate appearances (not including playoffs). In all the rush to anoint Castro, people have forgotten that he's now a grand total of 1 year and 500 plate appearances away from rookie ball.
Slow your roll, Cubs fans. Castro will be good, but to expect big things from him before his 21st birthday is silly.
I worry about these unrealistic expectations because it sets him up to be labeled a bust when he hits .250 before he's fully developed, and it's hard to change people's minds at that point. So please, let Castro hit his stride before judging him, and if he comes up before he's ready, don't expect some kind of organizational savior.
Instant Reactions: Chapter 1 of Cubs/Sox
With Jeff Kennard and Carlos Silva doing their best Clay Counsil impressions, the Cubs took their first loss of the spring in a game that Sox fans are sure to rub in your face.
You will probably respond "Who cares? It's just spring training," to which they will make a snide remark about World Series rings or how crappy Wrigley Field is or something. Welcome to the 2010 baseball season.
This game featured most of the Cubs regulars, meaning not as many innings for the prospects as in the last few games, but we still got some good looks at some young guys. Here are some of my impressions.
You will probably respond "Who cares? It's just spring training," to which they will make a snide remark about World Series rings or how crappy Wrigley Field is or something. Welcome to the 2010 baseball season.
This game featured most of the Cubs regulars, meaning not as many innings for the prospects as in the last few games, but we still got some good looks at some young guys. Here are some of my impressions.
- First and foremost, James Russell looked very good. He threw 2 innings, allowing 2 hits and a walk while striking out 2. He did give up an unearned run on Alfonso Soriano's first gaffe of the year, but overall I was impressed with how he commanded his fastball/changeup combo and he mixed speed very well.
His battle with Carlos Quentin was particularly impressive, as Quentin seemed totally off-balance and was never able to square up anything after previously jacking two homers off of Silva. Russell isn't a star or anything, but could be a very useful lefty-specialist/long reliever in the mold of Sean Marshall. - Andres Blanco left the game injured, and while we don't know how bad it is, I mentioned on Twitter that if Darwin Barney switched places with him, nobody would noticed. They both have good defensive reputations, and Barney has at least as good of a bat, with potential to be considerably better. The guys at Another Cubs Blog promised a post comparing the two later, and I'll look forward to reading it. Hopefully the Cubs don't get too wrapped up in the whole "veteran utility player" and give Barney a chance to take the spot sooner rather than later.
The Spring So Far
It's been a busy couple of weeks for me, and I apologize for the lack of updates. But with the season getting started, it's time to ramp things back up at Wrigley Bound. Check back often, as we'll be starting to put up regular updates and get to full speed as the regular season approaches.
Let's kick things off with a recap of how the spring has gone so far for Cubs prospects...
- Starlin Castro has been in the press constantly for the last few days, particularly for garnering some high praise from manager Lou Piniella.
- Brett Jackson likes blood.
- Tyler Colvin had a huge game in the spring training opener today, hitting 2 doubles and a home run in the Cubs 9-3 win over the A's. He's actually become something of a sleeper, having finally recovered fully from his 2008 Tommy John surgery. He ended last season on a ridiculous hot streak and appears to be picking up where he left off. He's a longshot to break camp with the club after the Xavier Nady signing, but it's hard to envision him spending the whole season in the minors.
Writers Wanted
Hey Cub fans,
I'm looking to add a writer or two to the Wrigley Bound team. You don't have to be experienced, just have some time on your hands and an interest in and some knowledge of the Cubs farm system. You can pretty much write about whatever you want to, and with no fixed schedule.
If you or anyone you know is interested, please send me an email at wrigleybound@gmail.com.
Top 5 Cubs Shortstop Prospects
This is the fourth part in a series of position-by-position looks at the Cubs top prospects. Previous entries can be found below:
Listed after each player is their age for the 2010 season and the level at which they ended last season.
Note: Ryan Flaherty was considered a 3B and DJ LeMahieu a 2B for purposes of this list, and therefore were not considered.
1. Starlin Castro, 20, AA Tennessee
This past year has been good to Castro, who has skyrocketed in the prospect world to elite status, recently being ranked the 11th best prospect by AOL Fanhouse, 12th by ESPN's Keith Law, 15th by USA Today, and 22nd by MiLB.com.
The main appeal to Castro is his high floor. If he doesn't improve any more from where he is now, he'll be a major league player for a number of years. He already has a line-drive bat that will produce high averages, as well as average speed and fielding at the shortstop position, and those attributes alone are enough to make him a valuable commodity.
There is debate about how high his ceiling is, with some pegging him as an MLB starter who never becomes an all-star, while some see him becoming one of the games best offensive middle infielders. The hope is that power will come as he grows up and fills out, and that the strides he made with his plate discipline over the last half of the season end up being for real. But even considering his youth, there aren't enough good reasons to assume those improvements will come.
His fielding is solid, and he'll be able to hold down shortstop at least for the first portion of his career. Down the road, there is concern that his speed will deteriorate, leaving him without the necessary range to stay there. That may force him to second eventually, a move which may be expedited by the emergence of Hak-Ju Lee (see below).
How good Castro ends up remains to be seen, but it looks more and more like he will be the best position player the Cubs have developed in a while. He should start this season back at Tennessee, and in all likelihood will find himself promoted to Iowa at some point and maybe even to Chicago if he keeps up his meteoric rise.
Top 5 Cubs Second Base Prospects
This is the third part in a series of position-by-position looks at the Cubs top prospects. Previous entries can be found below:
Listed after each player is their age for the 2010 season and the level at which they ended last season.
Earlier this season I would have had LeMahieu in this spot, and the change reflects more on me losing some enthusiasm about DJ rather than gaining a great deal about Watkins. More on that in the next section.
In any case, Watkins is a fine prospect himself, packing a great deal of athleticism into a small frame. Currently listed at 5 foot 11 and 170 pounds, Watkins is just a year and a half removed from high school and it shows in his body. He should continue to add muscle as his body matures, which could take him from no power to low power.
Fortunately for Logan, he's got plenty of other abilities to make up for his longball deficiencies. His on-base skills are excellent, and his .407 OBP since turning pro is top notch. Though he's hit .325 in both pro seasons, they were on the back of .426 and .365 BABIPs.
His swing is short and punchy, resulting in a ton of contact and few strikeouts, though it's not necessarily all hard contact. 63% of his hits were groundballs, a rate not even Juan Pierre could match. More concerning was that just 9% were line-drives, and clearly he'll need to alter his swing slightly to sustain his batting averages.
Watkins also brings good speed, perhaps a 55 or 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and it gives him good range in the field that should allow him to play an MLB second base someday. There are a few issues with Logan that keep him from being a top prospect, but infielders who get on base frequently and run well will always have a place in the big leagues.
Q&A with AOL Fanhouse writer Frankie Piliere
On Monday, AOL Fanhouse baseball writer Frankie Piliere released his top 100 prospect list, which didn't shy away from controversy. 3 Cubs made the list: Starlin Castro at #11, Josh Vitters at #53, and Brett Jackson at #74.
Covering the minors, to me, is the most fun a scout can have. Not a knock on amateur scouting but you get the opportunity to see everyone's top talent, and on top of that, you see a lot of interesting minor league towns. But, what I always itched for was to bring a little different perspective to prospect coverage. I'm in a perfect situation now, where during the year I'll be able to go on the road just like when I was scouting to see all these guys. So, it's like I never left scouting. I'm very lucky that I got the chance to scout, but I'm even more glad that I can use that experience now to give people good information.
I became fully convinced at the FSL All-Star Game, where, to me, he was clearly the best player on the field. I like guys who show me different dimensions at the plate. Guys who look like they not only have the physical tools to hit, but the feel at the plate. I think Starlin has that. He knows how to let the pitch track deep, he sees the breaking ball well, and his pitch selection within the zone is good. When I see a guy with multiple tools, and he can do things like this that's when I'm impressed. So, when I see that type of thing at the plate I'm going to be extra aggressive with that type of guy. I took some heat for ranking him this high, and the same goes for Michael Stanton at #2 but when it comes down to it, whether these guys make it big or not will hinge on what they do at the plate. And, Castro does things that scream big league star. Couple that with the position he plays and his athleticism and to me he belongs easily where he is ranked.
Frankie took some time to answer a few questions for Wrigley Bound about Castro, Vitters, DJ LeMahieu, and more.
WB: Could you give us a quick rundown of how you became involved in player evaluation and your credentials?
FP: I actually started sort of where I am now. I was covering prospects and the draft for Scout.com and FoxSports. I made some very good contacts doing that with scouts and people in scouting departments. So, first I got the opportunity to be an associate scout with the Indians. I helped them out with their Cape Cod League coverage, which of course is a great place to get a start in scouting. From there, I got a shot at a job with Texas. I started out covering Indy ball from there and eventually was promoted to doing pro coverage (scouting minor league affiliates).
Covering the minors, to me, is the most fun a scout can have. Not a knock on amateur scouting but you get the opportunity to see everyone's top talent, and on top of that, you see a lot of interesting minor league towns. But, what I always itched for was to bring a little different perspective to prospect coverage. I'm in a perfect situation now, where during the year I'll be able to go on the road just like when I was scouting to see all these guys. So, it's like I never left scouting. I'm very lucky that I got the chance to scout, but I'm even more glad that I can use that experience now to give people good information.
WB: You had Starlin Castro just outside the top 10 top 100 list. That seems to be on the high end of the rankings he's received. What do you see in him that impressed you so much?
FP: The thing I'm going to be doing differently than I think anyone else, is staying away from groupthink. I've had the luxury that others who make these lists don't have. I've seen the majority of these guys not once, but many times. So I'm going to treat lists like this the same way I treated the preference list I'd keep throughout the year when I was scouting. Most of the input comes from my scouting reports, and I feel very strongly about Castro.
I became fully convinced at the FSL All-Star Game, where, to me, he was clearly the best player on the field. I like guys who show me different dimensions at the plate. Guys who look like they not only have the physical tools to hit, but the feel at the plate. I think Starlin has that. He knows how to let the pitch track deep, he sees the breaking ball well, and his pitch selection within the zone is good. When I see a guy with multiple tools, and he can do things like this that's when I'm impressed. So, when I see that type of thing at the plate I'm going to be extra aggressive with that type of guy. I took some heat for ranking him this high, and the same goes for Michael Stanton at #2 but when it comes down to it, whether these guys make it big or not will hinge on what they do at the plate. And, Castro does things that scream big league star. Couple that with the position he plays and his athleticism and to me he belongs easily where he is ranked.
Baseball Prospectus' Top 11 Cubs Prospects
With prospect list season in full swing at most baseball publications, another of the major prospect experts, Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein, released his Cubs top 10 list today (plus a few extras).
Goldstein's list can be found here with scouting reports on each one for subscribers. For those of you without subscriptions, the list is below:
1. Josh Vitters (5*)
2. Starlin Castro (5*)
3. Hak-Ju Lee (4*)
4. Brett Jackson (4*)
5. Andrew Cashner (3*)
6. Jay Jackson (3*)
7. Chris Carpenter (3*)
8. Chris Archer (3*)
9. Kyler Burke (3*)
10. Ryan Flaherty (3*)
11. John Gaub (3*)
12. Chris Huseby
13. Logan Watkins
14. Dae-Eun Rhee
15. Darwin Barney
I'm not at all surprised Goldstein gave Vitters the nod for the top spot, as he's always been a huge proponent and a believer in his bat. Couple that with the show he put on in the Midwest League (KG's home turf) and I would have been surprised to see anyone else above him. Goldstein also has better reports on his defense than we've heard in a while, which I suppose is encouraging. It's a good bet Vitters will show better on the BP top 100 prospect list than on most other lists.
Top 5 Cubs First Base Prospects
This is the second in a series of position by position looks at the Cubs top prospects. Previous entries can be found below:
Listed after each player is their age for the 2010 season and the level at which they ended last season.
Drafted in 2008 out of Oklahoma State, Ridling boasts an impressive stature and a mustache that would make Pedro Sanchez proud. In his professional debut, he struggled to adjust to Midwest League pitching, striking out 50 times and walking just 8 on his way to a .200 batting average. He would show some serious power though, homering 10 times in about 180 plate appearances.
Following his struggles and subsequent reassignment to Peoria, Ridling made a shift in his plate approach that yielded dramatic results, specifically leveling out his swing and taking a more patient approach. His strikeout rate fell dramatically from his 2008 performance, including his college numbers, and he was able to maintain a walk rate of nearly 7%, also an improvement on his debut. His power showed a simultaneous drop, and his isolated power fell from .226 to .156 as his home runs turned to doubles.
Ridling hits line drives to all fields with authority, showing an impressive bat that projects to continue to produce high batting averages (.310 in 2009). The main concern is that his performance was a result of a 23 year old college hitter repeating the Midwest League, and he is somewhat behind the typical progression.
He'll need to conquer the Florida State League in Daytona this season (no small feat for a hitter), and move on to AA Tennessee before he can regain the distinction of being "age appropriate". Ridling is a decent prospect with a chance to make a splash in his mid-upper 20's, a la Micah Hoffpauir and Jake Fox, if he continues to hit.
2. Blake Lalli, 27, AA Tennessee
